6 Reasons to Bet the 49ers to Win Their 6th Super Bowl

• The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs meet in Super Bowl 54 (Sunday, Feb. 2, 6:30 PM ET)
• San Francisco opened as a 1.5-point underdog
• There are plenty of reasons to believe the Niners will win outright. We outline the six best below

Super Bowl 54 between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining games in recent memory. Both teams finished in the top-five in scoring during the regular season, and rank first and second respectively in points per game during the playoffs.

Super Bowl 54 Odds

Odds taken Jan. 22nd.

The 49ers opened as a 1.5-point underdog at online sportsbooks, but there are plenty of reasons to believe they’ll be ones hoisting the Lombardi Trophy when the final whistle blows.

1. Niners Run Game Will Have Success

The Niners run-game production in the NFC Championship (285 yards, 6.8 YPC) was likely an outlier performance, but that doesn’t mean they won’t find success on the ground versus the Chiefs. San Francisco earned Pro Football Focus’ fifth-highest run blocking grade in 2019, while KC’s rush defense was ranked 29th.

Raheem Mostert.
That's it. That's the tweet.#BeLegendary pic.twitter.com/xirNLEvbBF

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 20, 2020

The 49ers have rushed for 112 yards or more in eight straight, highlighted by their 285-yard outburst against Green Bay on 42 carries. The Chiefs’ defense won’t roll over like the Packers’ did in the NFC title game, but they did allow the fourth-most yards per rush after contact, and San Fran led the league in rushing yards before contact.

2. George Kittle Will be Unleashed

One of the primary reasons for the 49ers’ rushing success has been the elite blocking by George Kittle.

.@49ers @gkittle46 getting a “Macy’s Holiday Special” on this 2 for 1 sale. Everyone participates in the run game. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/wfnUq2jrBw

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) January 21, 2020

The stud tight end was instrumental in the run game versus Green Bay, but with KC projected to score roughly 28 points in the Super Bowl, the Niners’ passing game will be called on to produce points.

Enter Kittle, who led the NFL in receiving yards per route run and has a very favorable matchup versus KC’s slow linebackers. The Chiefs allowed the second-most tight end receptions this season and the fifth-most receiving yards to Kittle’s position.

3. Jimmy Garoppolo Can Win a Shootout

There’s a misconception that the Niners are winning playoff games in spite of Jimmy Garoppolo. The reality is that neither Minnesota nor Green Bay put up any kind of fight. The Chiefs are favored in this game and are going to put up points, but that shouldn’t scare 49ers fans.  Garoppolo had multiple four-touchdown performances this season and he excelled in games where his team allowed 25 or more points.

Why does everyone keep saying the Jimmy G can’t beat the Chiefs in a shootout?? Did they not watch the Saints game when he dropped 48 points, won the game, and went toe to toe with Brees on the road??

— Danny Kanell (@dannykanell) January 22, 2020

In such contests, Jimmy G averaged 297.6 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns. He led the league in passer rating when playing from behind, and he was tied with Russell Wilson and Josh Allen for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in the NFL.

4. San Fran’s Defense Can Hang with KC’s Offense

No defense can stop the Chiefs explosive offense, but San Fran has arguably the best chance of any unit in the NFL at keeping Patrick Mahomes and company in check. The 49er defense ranked second in DVOA this year and generated pressure at the third-highest rate.

Bosa gets home for the sack! #NFLPlayoffs@nbsmallerbear | #GoNiners

📺: #GBvsSF on FOX
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/jti8uZSrIn pic.twitter.com/FiYoM3XHCz

— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2020

Sixteen of Mahomes’ 18 career interceptions have come against four or fewer rushers, which is good news for the Niners, who blitz just 20.9% of the the time. San Fran is PFF’s number one coverage unit this season, and Richard Sherman is their top-rated cornerback.

5. Kyle Shanahan is an Offensive Genius

When Kyle Shanahan spots a weakness in an opposing defense, he attacks it relentlessly. He runs pre-snap motion at the highest rate in the league, which forces the opposition to reveal its coverage and blitzing schemes. KC’s strength on defense lies up front, and with two weeks to prepare, you can bet Shanahan will have an abundance of plays ready to expose the Chiefs’ mediocre corner and linebacker play.

This is just being better as a play designer and caller than anyone else man. @49ers @BrandonThornNFL #GBvsSF #NFCChampionship

Remember Shanahan knows Pettine well! pic.twitter.com/FLUTnapXi7

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) January 20, 2020

Few defensive minds in the league can match wits with him,which explains why his team’s routinely finish inside the top-10 in total offense. This year, the Niners ranked second in points per game, fourth in yards per game, and second in rushing.

6. The 49ers Force More Turnovers

San Fran forced three turnovers in the NFC Championship and two more in the Divisional Round. They were sixth in takeaways during the regular season and forced both interceptions and fumbles at a higher rate than KC.

https://twitter.com/SportsDGI/status/1219088114431315969

In a game that projects to be extremely close, winning the turnover battle will go a long way in determining the Super Bowl champion. The Chiefs don’t give the ball away often, but San Fran’s defense is loaded with elite talent capable of creating turnovers against even the best competition.

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