Colorado State vs Texas Picks, Predictions, Props & Odds (March 21)

• Coming off a dominant First Four win over Virginia, Colorado State battles Texas in the round of 64
• Texas went just 3-9 straight-up against NCAA Tournament teams this year
• See the Colorado State vs Texas odds, predictions and player props for Thursday’s game in Charlotte, NC

The #10 Colorado State Rams (25-10, 6-1 neutral, 17-16 ATS) made a huge statement on Tuesday night with a 25-point win over Virginia in the First Four. Now the Rams move onto the first round proper where the #7 Texas Longhorns (20-12, 2-2 neutral, 12-20 ATS) await.

The Rams and Longhorns will clash at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC, at 6:55 pm ET on Thursday. The more-rested Longhorns are currently listed as 2.5-point betting favorites in the Colorado State vs Texas odds.

Colorado State vs Texas Odds

On the moneyline, Texas is a -142 favorite to win and advance, while CSU is priced at +120 to reach the round of 32. The winner of Thursday’s game will face either #2 Tennessee or #15 Saint Peter’s in the second round of the March Madness bracket.

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Odds as of March 20 at DraftKings. Bettors can claim March madness betting promos before wagering on the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

CSU’s Final Four odds improved from +15000 prior to the Virginia game to +4000 ahead of its matchup with Texas. The Longhorns are currently +1600 to win the Midwest Region.

Rams Dominate UVA in First Four

Colorado State didn’t leave much to the imagination on Tuesday night in Dayton. The Rams jumped out to a 10-4 lead and never looked back, cruising to a 67-42 win over offensively-challenged Virginia.

A quiet night from point guard and leading scorer Isaiah Stevens (16.2 PPG, 6.9 APG), who finished with just five points, six rebounds, and four assists, was inconsequential thanks to a season-high 23 from senior forward Joel Scott, who shot 9-of-13 from the field and also grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds.

The Rams dominated the glass, grabbing 37 of 44 potential rebounds on defense (84.1%) and ensuring the ice-cold Wahoos didn’t get many second chances.

The win dominant win moved CSU up significantly in the KenPom ratings, from 38th to 30th, which is just three spots behind Texas.

Tuesday’s victory also improved Colorado State to 6-1 in neutral-court games, their only setback coming in the Mountain West Tournament semis to eventual-champion New Mexico (74-61).

Texas Holds Its Own in Stacked Big 12

With Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen, and Sir’Jabari Rice all departing from a Texas team that went 29-9 and earned a #2 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament, a sizable step back was expected (and transpired) in Rodney Terry’s second season on the Longhorn bench.

The addition of transfer Max Abmas, the cult hero of the 2021 tournament when he led #15 Oral Roberts to upsets over #2 Ohio State and #7 Florida, mitigated the loss of UT’s three leading scorers, though. Abmas led the Longhorns in scoring at 17.1 PPG, while senior forward Dylan Disu upped his production from just 8.8 PPG last year to 15.8 PPG this season.

Texas had plenty of quality wins while going 9-9 in conference play: 74-73 at Cincinnati, 75-73 vs Baylor, and 81-69 at Texas Tech stand out. But the Longhorns only managed a 3-9 straight-up record against teams that qualified for the NCAA Tournament. They also bowed out of the Big 12 Tournament in the first round to Kansas State (78-74) as six-point favorites.

Texas shoots the ball decently, connecting at 36.2% from three (47th) and 53.3% from two (63rd), and ranks 19th in offensive efficiency at KenPom, but they don’t defend all that well (62nd in defensive efficiency) and aren’t terribly proficient on the glass (120th in offensive-rebounding percentage and 221st in defensive-rebounding percentage).

Player Props for CSU vs TEX

College basketball player props from DraftKings on March 18, 2024. 

Abmas has the highest point total at 17.5 on Thursday night while Scott leads the Rams players at 15.5, one ahead of leading scorer Stevens (14.5). CSU forward Nique Clifford, who averages 7.6 RPG, has the highest rebound total at 8.5, though the under is favored (+105o/-145u).

Colorado State vs Texas Prediction

As mentioned, with Texas losing its three leading scorers from last year, expectations were lowered. But this team still didn’t live up to its potential. They started the year 16th at KenPom and had faded to 27th by the end of the Big 12 Tournament.

CSU was in an excellent rhythm against Virginia and I expect that to rollover to the Texas game just 48 hours later. I’m also something of a Mountain West truther this season and have several MW teams advancing in my expert bracket (including New Mexico in the Elite Eight). I firmly believe the Mountain West was stronger than the Pac-12 and ACC this season, all things considered.

Look for Colorado State to become the latest team to advance from the First Four to the second round.

CSU vs TEX pick: Colorado State moneyline (+120)