Nevada vs Dayton Odds, Predictions, and Player Props (March 21)

• 10-seed Nevada takes on 7-seed Dayton in the Round of 64
• Despite being the 10-seed, Nevada is the favorite to advance to the next round
• See below for Nevada vs Dayton predictions, odds, and props

Nevada and Dayton meet in Salt Lake City Utah on Thursday in the Round of 64. This is the 7-10 game in the West region of the March Madness bracket, and the winner will face the winner of Arizona and Long Beach State. Tip-off for this game is at 4:30 ET tomorrow.

While they lost their first game of the Mountain West Tournament, the Wolfpack earned the 2-seed. They are one of six Mountain West teams to make this tournament. Dayton was ranked for a good portion of the season, but faltered towards the end and lost to Duquesne in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

These teams are close in the KenPom rankings, as Dayton is ranked 33 and Nevada is ranked 34.

Nevada vs Dayton Odds

The college basketball odds list the 10-seed as 1.5-point favorites over Dayton. This is just one of a few March Madness games where the lower seed is favored over the higher seed. At -120 odds, Nevada has a 54.55% chance of winning this game. The total opened at O/U 137.5 but has since moved down to 136.5.

Nevada is not only favored to win this game, but they also have better Final Four odds. The Wolfpack have the ninth-best odds to win the West region at +3000, and Dayton has the eleventh-best odds at +5000.

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Odds as of March 20 at BetMGM. Get the sign up offer for BetMGM before wagering on March Madness. If already registered at MGM, check out the Fanatics Sportsbook promo. 

Nevada Betting Trends

Nevada is 21-11 against the spread this season and has covered in six of their last eight games. The Wolfpack are led by the dynamic guard duo of Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear.

More 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐬 for our guys 🏆

Congratulations to Kenan Blackshear & Jarod Lucas on earning NABC Second Team All-District 17 honors!#BattleBorn | #PackParty pic.twitter.com/cinUWzdS6i

— Nevada Basketball (@NevadaHoops) March 19, 2024

Lucas leads the team in scoring with an average of 17.8 points per game. He also shoots nearly 40% from behind the arc. Blackshear, on the other hand, is not far behind. He averages 15.1 points per game and shoots 39.9% from the field. Thanks in part to the play of these two guards, the over has hit in six straight games that Nevada has played.

Nevada shoots the ball well from behind the arc, but they do not shoot as much as you might think with their slow tempo. The Wolfpack’s defense leaves some to be desired. Where they struggle most is guarding the three-pointer. Nevada is not afraid to let other teams shoot from behind the arc. They are also not strong on the interior and force a lot of fouls.

Dayton Betting Trends

The Flyers had a great 2023-24 season. They finished 24-7 overall and went 15-15-1 against the spread, but after a stunning loss to Duquesne in the A10 quarterfinals, they have now lost three of their last six.

Dayton plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, yet they are extremely effective on offense because of how well they shoot the three. The Flyers are third in the country in three-point percentage at 40.19%. They only trail Kentucky and Purdue in that category. According to KenPom, Dayton is 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

While they shoot the ball well, the Flyers can also play well down low, with DaRon Holmes averaging over eight rebounds and two blocks per game. Dayton will need more from the rest of their team on the defensive side of the ball, as they have not been great of late. Dayton is also top-heavy, as they typically only play with six players.

Nevada vs Dayton Player Props

College basketball player props from BetMGM on March 20, 2024. 

While Jarod Lucas’s average is less than 18.5 points, Lucas has scored at least 19 points in six of his last seven games. He scored 18 points in the one game where he did not get to 19.

Kobe Elvis’s assist prop of 3.5 is right at his season-long average of 3.6. In his last five games, however, Elvis has had at least five assists in four of those games.

Enoch Cheeks’s three-pointer prop is sitting at 0.5. Cheeks has made at least one three pointer in five of his last six outings.

Nevada vs Dayton Prediction

This game will come down to the wire, just as the spread suggests. Both teams are evenly matched and play similar styles. They want to slow the game down and make their shots, predominantly from behind the three-point line.

Guard play is important in March, and that gives Nevada the edge in this matchup. They trust both Lucas and Blackshear late in games, so having those options is a huge advantage. The Wolfpack also have the travel advantage and are used to playing in altitude due to their Mountain West schedule.

Dayton could get winded early on, especially since they only primarily use a six-man rotation. All in all, this will be a slow, low-scoring game where Nevada pulls away in the end.

Picks:

• Nevada -1.5 (-105)
• Under 136.5 (-110)