Mac Jones-Led Alabama Still Open as 4-Point Favorites at Auburn in 2019 Iron Bowl

• The Alabama Crimson Tide have opened as a 4-point favorite at Auburn next week for the Iron Bowl
• Auburn has struggled against Top-25 teams this season, losing to LSU, Georgia and Florida
• With Tua Tagovailoa out and Mac Jones in, we predict how the line might shift leading up to the big game

With Tua Tagovailoa sidelined, Mac Jones led the Alabama Crimson Tide to a 66-3 blowout win over Western Carolina. Now, taking a look at the NCAA Week 14 odds, the Crimson Tide have opened up as a 4-point favorite at Auburn next week for the Iron Bowl.

Is that too big of a line for the undermanned Tide to cover? Let’s take a closer look to examine which way this line will move.

Alabama vs Auburn Odds

Odds taken Nov. 24.

Tide Crush Western Carolina

Alabama was about a 58-point favorite on Saturday, so the fact that they won 66-3 was not overly surprising. However, it was reassuring as bettors wanted to see how Mac Jones would look – even if it was against a cupcake like Western Carolina.

Jones really didn’t have to do much work in the win but he did finish the day 10-of-12 for 275 yards and three touchdowns. The task will be much tougher on the road against a top SEC school, so we still have a lot to learn as to whether he’s legit or not.

Auburn Steamrolls Samford

While Alabama was on cruise control against Western Carolina on Saturday, Auburn was busy steamrolling Samford. They also had a bit of a break in the schedule before their big rivalry game and they took full advantage.

Auburn mostly used the game to keep themselves fresh. They played three different quarterbacks and saw 11 different players carry the ball. Their goal was to get to the Alabama game in the best possible shape and that’s exactly what they did.

Which Way Will the Line Move?

The Tide have opened as a 4-point favorite at Auburn. It will be surprising to some as Auburn is a 4-point home dog even though they’ve been in the Top 25 all season long. They’ve arguably played the tougher schedule, too.

At the same time, Auburn has struggled against elite teams. They did beat No. 11 Oregon, but as we’ve come to find out, Oregon isn’t great and Auburn needed to come back from a 21-6 hole. The Tigers then lost to No. 10 Florida, No. 2 LSU and No. 4 Georgia. While the scores in some of those games look close, Auburn wasn’t really in it in the latter two contests.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s only loss on the season came to LSU. They’ve taken care of business otherwise. The issue is that they really haven’t had to play anyone as their only other ranked opponent was Texas A&M, which is barely a Top 25-caliber team these days.

Oddsmakers are telling us that don’t have much faith in Auburn here. This is a team ranked in the Top 20 that’s at home against a rival with a backup quarterback, and they still find themselves as a small home dog. If they had any credibility, they’d be a small favorite or the game would be closer to a PICK.

The main issue in this spot probably won’t be the Alabama offense or Mac Jones. It’s likely to be Auburn’s offense. It’s not talked about frequently but Auburn’s quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in big games. He has three touchdowns and four interceptions in the last three games against ranked SEC teams while completing exactly 50% of his passes.

Bettors are likely going to be worried that Nix and the Auburn offense won’t be able to get much done in this spot. If that’s the case, Alabama’s offense, which is shorthanded, might only need about 14 or 17 points to win and cover. Auburn averaged 15.7 points against LSU, Florida and Georgia. If the Tide’s defense shows up, they could keep Auburn to about 10.

Of these two teams, who will bettors trust to be more disciplined and more effective? The answer is Alabama. And bettors know they’re still in the running of the College Football Championship odds and need to show well here to make their case. That’s likely going to push more money on the Tide and push the line higher as we move through the week.