The “FIELD” Is Favored to Lead the MLB in Homers Over Yelich, Springer, Gallo; Just Who’s in This “FIELD” Option?
- The odds to lead the MLB in home runs in 2019 have been updated
- Reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich is the new favorite among the individual players listed
- However, the FIELD option has the shortest odds of all; find out who it includes
Bookmaker has updated the 2019 MLB home-run king odds to reflect some recent hot streaks and injuries.
Earlier in May, my colleague advised that Khris Davis was good value at +1200 to be the MLB home-run king. Unfortunately, Davis suffered an oblique strain that could keep him out for a while, and his odds have plummeted as a result.
Here’s where things stand as of May 24th.
Odds to Lead MLB in Home Runs in 2019
Who will lead MLB in home runs in 2019? | Homers as of May 24 | Home-run leader odds at BookMaker |
---|---|---|
Christian Yelich, Brewers | 19 | +325 |
George Springer, Astros | 17 | +501 |
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers | 17 | +526 |
Joey Gallo, Rangers | 15 | +939 |
Mike Trout, Angels | 11 | +1507 |
Joc Pederson, Dodgers | 14 | +1507 |
Nolan Arenado, Rockies | 11 | +2012 |
Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals | 14 | +2518 |
Khris Davis, Athletics | 12 | +3026 |
Javier Baez, Cubs | 12 | +4000 |
Edwin Encarnacion, Mariners | 13 | +5000 |
Rhys Hoskins, Phillies | 11 | +5000 |
Eddie Rosario, Twins | 14 | +5000 |
Trevor Story, Rockies | 11 | +7500 |
Jay Bruce, Mariners | 12 | +10000 |
Matt Chapman, Athletics | 11 | +10000 |
Bryce Harper, Phillies | 9 | +10000 |
Aaron Judge, Yankees | 5 | +10000 |
Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals | 10 | +20000 |
Jose Altuve, Astros | 9 | +30000 |
FIELD | N/A | +200 |
Springer Falls Due to Injury
George Springer was on pace for a career year before missing the last four games with back tightness. His odds have fallen from +400 to +501 as a result.
He’s expected back in the lineup on Friday (May 24), but has also only managed 140 games each of the last two seasons.
As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up
As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up.
Tied for second in the majors at 17 HRs, Springer’s hard-hit rate of 55% is fourth overall. His current odds give him a 16.7% implied probability.
Yelich Becomes the Outright Favorite
With a two-homer lead on the field and 36-homer season under his belt, reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich has become the favorite.
Beware, though, the 27-year-old has missed seven games already this year, including the last two with back spasms. Like Springer, he’s returning on Friday.
Christian Yelich- Back- Yelich was scratched from the lineup tonight with back spasms. These back spasms are unrelated to the lower-back stiffness that sidelined him earlier in the season but are not considered serious, Adam McCalvy of https://t.co/wznV8oM89I reports. #Brewers
— Fantasy Baseball Injury Guru (@mlbinjuryguru) May 22, 2019
Yelich has a better track record than Springer in terms of health, playing at least 147 games in each of the last three seasons. He’s just behind Spring in hard-hit rate at 54.8% (6th in MLB).
His odds give him a very-high 23.5% implied probability to lead the league in home runs.
Gallo is Lurking
Joey Gallo’s odds have improved ever so slightly over the last two weeks, but the change is minimal. A 6’5 freak athlete, Gallo hit the 40-homer mark in 2017 and 2018.
The narrative around him this season is that he has become a more complete hitter, and that’s certainly true. His OPS has skyrocketed from a solid .810 to an MVP-caliber 1.113 (fourth-best in the majors). Formerly a Golden Sombrero candidate on any given night, he’s … actually still striking out a ton (35.0%), but is also being more patient. He’s upped his walk rate from 12.8% to 19.1%.
His new approach at the plate hasn’t cost him any power, indeed he’s hitting the ball harder this year. He leads the majors in hard-hit rate at 60.7% and average exit velocity at 96.9 MPH! That’s 11% higher than last season.
In terms of durability, Gallo averaged 146.5 games in 2017 and 2018, his first full seasons in the majors. H has missed four games this year, but they were all one-offs and he is not currently sporting any injury concerns.
Gallo’s current odds (+939) carry an implied probability of 9.6%.
Why Is “FIELD” the Favorite?
In short, because five of the top-ten and 19 of the top 30 on the current leaderboard are in the FIELD. They include …
Members of the FIELD | Homers as of May 23 | Previous single-season high |
---|---|---|
Josh Bell, Pirates | 16 | 26 (2017) |
Pete Alonso, Mets | 16 | N/A (rookie) |
Gary Sanchez, Yankees | 15 | 33 (2017) |
Franmil Reyes, Padres | 15 | 16 (2018) |
Alex Bregman, Astros | 15 | 31 (2018) |
Daniel Vogelbach, Mariners | 14 | 4 (2018) |
Mitch Moreland, Red Sox | 13 | 23 (twice) |
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs | 13 | 32 (three times) |
CJ Cron, Twins | 13 | 30 (2018) |
Eugenio Suarez, Reds | 13 | 34 (2018) |
Mike Moustakas, Brewers | 12 | 38 (2017) |
Freddie Freeman, Braves | 12 | 34 (2016) |
Derek Dietrich, Reds | 12 | 16 (2018) |
Tommy La Stella, Angels | 12 | 5 (2017) |
Mitch Haniger, Mariners | 12 | 26 (2018) |
Jose Abreu, White Sox | 12 | 36 (2014) |
Gleyber Torres, Yankees | 12 | 24 (2018) |
Luke Voit, Yankees | 12 | 15 (2018) |
Kris Bryant, Cubs | 12 | 39 (2016) |
Betting on the FIELD gets you nine players who have a non-zero chance of winning this season-long home-run derby: Josh Bell, Pete Alonso, Gary Sanchez, Anthony Rizzo, Eugenio Suarez, Freddie Freeman, Jose Abreu, Kris Bryant, and Alex Bregman.
At +200, the FIELD has an implied probability of 33.3%. It’s considerably higher than any individual player listed, and based on the current state of affairs, it should be.
Betting advice: The only bet I would consider here is Gallo at +939. At +200, there isn’t enough value on the FIELD, not the way Yelich, Springer, and let’s not forget Cody Bellinger are swinging the bat.