White Sox vs Astros Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers
- The Houston Astros are -145 moneyline favorites over the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS on Thursday (October 7th, 4:07 pm ET)
- Houston will give the ball to Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5, 3.16 ERA), while Chicago will counter with Lance Lynn (11-6, 2.69 ERA)
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
Game 1 of the ALDS goes Thursday afternoon (October 7th) in Houston, as the AL West champion Astros host the AL Central champion Chicago White Sox.
These two teams met seven times in the regular season, with Houston winning the season series 5-2. The Astros are a -130 favorite to advance to the ALCS, and even bigger chalk to take the ALDS opener.
White Sox vs Astros Game 1 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | +125 | +1.5 (-160) | O 8 (-105) |
| Houston Astros | -145 | -1.5 (+140) | U 8 (-115) |
Odds as of Oct. 6th at DraftKings.
Houston is -145 on the moneyline in Game 1, in a matchup that features a total of 8. First pitch on Thursday is scheduled for 4:07 pm ET at Minute Maid Park, with a beautiful day for playoff baseball on deck. Sunshine and clear skies are expected, along with 89 degree temperatures.
Probable Pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr. will take the ball for the Astros, looking to continue his run of fantastic starts. The 28-year-old allowed three runs or less in each of his final six starts, posting a 3-1 record over that stretch.
He hasn’t pitched since last Thursday, giving him a full week’s worth of rest, and has an excellent postseason track record. McCullers owns a career 3.04 playoff ERA in 14 career appearances, with a 4.8 K/BB rate.
“I’m just going to go out there and be myself. … I can pitch with anyone.” – Lance McCullers Jr. on pitching game one of the #ALDS pic.twitter.com/0qemFeAiDe
— SportsRadio 610 (@SportsRadio610) October 6, 2021
He dominated the White Sox this season, winning both of his starts against them, while surrendering only three runs in 13 innings. In six career meetings with Chicago, he’s 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.88 WHIP.
#WhiteSox facing #Astros #LanceMcCullersJr in Game 1. McCullers is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA in 6 starts lifetime vs Sox. He’s 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 2 starts this year. The RHP is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last 4 starts vs. the Sox
— SoxNerd (@SoxNerd) October 6, 2021
The White Sox finished the regular season as the AL’s sixth highest scoring team, but were phenomenal over the final week of the regular season. Chicago closed out the 2021 calendar with six wins in its last seven games, outscoring the opposition by 22 runs.
Lynn vs McCullers Jr.
| 11-6 | Record | 13-5 |
| 2.69 | ERA | 3.16 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| .209 | OBA | .205 |
| 3.9 | SO/W Ratio | 5.4 |
The White Sox will counter with Lance Lynn, who’s fresh off a season that has him ranked as a top-three Cy Young Award contender.
Lynn posted a personal best 2.69 ERA, and a 5.4 WAR, the second best mark of his 10-year career. He closed out the regular season by allowing one run or less in 11 of his final 15 starts, but has struggled in the postseason.
Good morning. 2021 Lance Lynn was AWESOME:
• 2.69 ERA
• 1.07 WHIP
• 11-6 record
• American League All-Star
• Free’d Britney Spears
• 176 strikeouts
• Perfect Chicago White Sox starter— Vinnie Parise (@VinnieParise) October 4, 2021
He owns a career 6.31 playoff ERA, and measly 1.9 K/BB rate. Lynn hasn’t started a postseason game since 2014, but his previous playoff appearances in 2015 and 2018 as a reliever were a mess. He allowed four runs over just 3 innings in three relief appearances, striking out four, while walking three.
To make matters worse, he has a rocky history against Houston. Lynn has a 5.92 ERA versus the Astros dating back to 2018, and has allowed 57 hits and 13 home runs in 48.2 innings.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| White Sox Batters | Batting Average vs McCullers Jr. | Astros Batters | Batting Average vs Lynn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | .222 | Jose Altuve | .382 |
| Tim Anderson | .250 | Yordan Alvarez | .455 |
| Leury Garcia | .000 | Michael Brantley | .385 |
| Yasmani Grandal | .500 | Alex Bregman | .400 |
| Cesar Hernandez | .500 | Martin Maldonado | .500 |
| Yoan Moncada | .222 | Carlos Correa | .083 |
| Billy Hamilton | .667 | Marwin Gonzalez | .400 |
| Andrew Vaughn | .000 | Yuli Gurriel | .190 |
Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Martin Maldonado are all hitting .382 or better against him, with a minimum of 11 at-bats.
White Sox vs Astros Pick
Houston features the most well-balanced lineup of any team in the postseason. They led the league in runs, hits, and batting average, while ranking top-three in slugging and OPS.
A season to remember.#ForTheH pic.twitter.com/UYntAkzxNc
— Houston Astros (@astros) October 4, 2021
They have tons of pop, as evident by their 221 homers, but they don’t rely solely on their power. They hit both lefties and righties hard, while striking out at MLB’s second lowest rate. They’re an absolute nightmare to face.
Chicago on the other hand, is peaking at the right moment, but this is the worst possible matchup they could have faced. Throw in Lynn’s struggles against the Astros, and Houston jumps off the page as the Game 1 play.
Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline (-145)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
