Mountain West Tournament Odds, Preview, and Pick

• The Mountain West Conference tournament runs from Wednesday, March 10, to Saturday, March 13th, at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas
• No. 19 San Diego State enters as the regular-season champion and No. 1 seed, and the Aztecs are the only team assured of making the NCAA Tournament field
• See the odds, bracket, and full tournament preview below

The Mountain West Conference tournament will begin with three play-in games on Wednesday, March 10, at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Five teams received byes into the quarterfinals, with the finals scheduled for Saturday, March 13th (3:00 pm ET).

No. 19 San Diego State claimed its second consecutive regular-season title and No. 1 tournament seed, and the Aztecs appear to be the only Mountain West team that is a lock to make the 68-team NCAA Tournament field regardless of its play here.

For bubble teams Utah State, Colorado State, and Boise State, winning the tournament may be the only way for the league to get at least two teams into the NCAA field.

2021 Mountain West Odds

Odds from FanDuel on March 7.

Utah State is the two-time defending champion, having beaten top-seeded San Diego State as the No. 2 seed last season when the tournament was completed March 7, a few days before the college basketball world went on hiatus.

Six different teams have won the title in the last seven seasons since New Mexico completed a three-peat in 2014. This is a home tournament for UNLV, which plays at the Thomas & Mack Center, but the Rebels have not benefited from the home cooking. They have not won since back-to-back titles in 2007-08.

San Diego State and Its Defense

Senior-led San Diego State (20-4, 14-3) has won 11 straight games, the fourth-longest active winning streak in NCAA Division I, and has made its mark on the defensive end.

The Aztecs are No. 4 in Division I in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 60.1 points per game. Only Loyola Chicago, Houston, and Liberty have given up fewer points. San Diego State has a plus-14.5 scoring margin and has not trailed at any point in the second half on its current 11-game winning streak.

The Aztecs are also sixth in Division I in opponent field-goal percentage (38.66%) and they have clamped down even harder lately. They have held seven of their last nine opponents to under 39% shooting, and limited Boise State to 36 and 35 percent while sweeping a critical home series Feb. 25 and 27.

Forward Matt Mitchell (15.4 points per game) and shooting guard Justin Schakel (14.4) – both seniors – are the scoring leaders, and senior point guard Trey Pulliam in the assists leader on a team that has a plus-4.7 rebounding margin, a plus-3.7 turnover margin, and is averaging 18.5 points per game on turnovers.

Six-foot-ten junior Nathan Menzah defends the paint, and the Aztecs always seem fresh on the perimeter, with nine players averaging at least 14.5 minutes per game.

Can Utah State Three-peat?

Why not?

The Aggies have won four games in a row and six of eight, and they are the only team in the league to have swept San Diego State in the regular season. Utah State beat the Aztecs by 12 and five points in a mid-January series in Logan as part of their 9-0 run to open the conference season.

Utah State (18-7, 15-4) earned the No. 2 seed in the league tournament — and kept away from a damaging loss in the eyes of the NCAA committee — with a come-from-behind 57-51 victory at Fresno State on Saturday in which they had a season-low 17 points at halftime while playing without starting guard Brock Miller.

Center Neemias Queta and forward Justin Bean had double-doubles in the Fresno victory, and the 6-11 Queta has been a force on both ends of the floor all season while contending for MW Player of the Year honors.

Queta is averaging 14.7 points and 9.9 rebounds while Bean is averaging 11.3 and 7.8. Queta is averaging three blocked shots per game, fifth in Division I. Miller has a team-high 49 three-pointers, and his shooting helps the Aggies balance the floor.

The Aggies have won all three games since freshman point guard Rollie Worster (9.2 points, 3.4 assists) returned from a lower leg injury.

Colorado State Stands Alone

Colorado State had a five-game winning streak snapped on Grant Sherfield’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer at Nevada on Friday, but the Rams remain the only team in the league to have beaten the other top four seeds at least once.

The Rams split road series at Utah State and San Diego and a home series against Boise State.

Colorado State found its best self when it went to a smaller lineup that featured 6-5, 252-pound David Roddy plahing the “four” and occasionally the “five.” Roddy is averaging 16.3 points. 9.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists, and his court vision from the low block has led to good shots for others. He has 10 double-doubles.

Point guard Isaiah Stevens is averaging 15.0 points and 5.7 assists, and the Rams are 10-3 since the lineup change that opened the floor.

Boise State in Must-Win Mode

The Broncos beat NCAA Tournament team BYU — Utah State and San Diego lost to the Cougars — and swept Utah State two weeks ago before losing two in San Diego. Boise State plays Nevada after both received byes into the quarterfinals, the first must-win of the tournament. Nevada swept the Broncos in their regular-season series.

No. 5 seed Nevada has a puncher’s chance with scoring guard Sherfield, but it is a long shot. San Diego State is a terrific defensive team, and defense wins. At the same time, Utah State’s Queta is the most dominating paint presence in the league, and he can hang with the Aztecs.

The pick: Utah State (+260)