Browns vs Patriots Week 8 Picks & Odds: 87% of Sharp Money on Browns to Cover 11-Point Spread

• Browns are 2-4 ATS and have only covered one game in last three, but sharps picking Cleveland
• New England has covered last three games, improve to 5-2 ATS this season
• We preview the Week 8 matchup and offer our best bet between the Browns and Patriots

There’s no place like home for the New England Patriots, who will be gunning for 12th consecutive regular-season victory at Gillette Stadium on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.

BookMaker released its latest point spread odds for Sunday’s game, listing New England as the early 11-point favorites. That makes sense considering the Pats have won seven straight and lead the AFC East Division with a perfect 7-0 record.

BookMaker is reporting that 82% of the ATS bets coming in are on New England.

However, recent figures released by BookMaker also shows that 57% of the ATS money and 87% of sharp ATS money is coming in on the Browns.

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns Odds

*Odds taken October 26

The point spread initially opened at -11 for the Patriots, but the line went as high as 13 points before dropping back down to its current price.

The Patriots have covered their last three games and are 5-2 against the spread this season. Over the last 10 games dating back to last season, New England holds an 8-2 ATS record overall.

Sharps Still Have Money on Browns to Cover

Despite New England’s dominance against the spread this season, sharp ATS money is still heavily on the Browns to cover on Sunday.

However, there are several arguments working against the sharps backing the Browns to cover.

First, Cleveland has only covered two out of six games this season going into their matchup against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Browns have also covered the spread once in their last three games — a 40-25 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4.

The Browns have allowed the 11th most yards per game (373.3) and points per game average (25.7) this season. The Patriots, by comparison, are allowing a league-best 6.9 points per game and sit first overall in yards allowed per game at 223.1.

One bright spot for the Browns has been the play of defensive end Myles Garrett, who is tied for the NFL lead in sacks this season with 9.

Generating offense has been an issue for Cleveland this season as the Browns are averaging 2,107 total yards per game, which is the seventh fewest in the league.

The Browns, who are also coming off a bye week, have showed signs of life on offense but the club has scored 13 of fewer points three out of their six games heading into their Week 8 matchup against the Patriots.

The sharps are likely looking at the head-to-head ATS record, which shows the Pats having the slight edge at 5-4 over a 10-game span.

https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1187701338907430912

Patriots have been Dominant SU Against Browns

There isn’t much value in betting on the moneyline here as the Patriots are listed as the heavy -600 favorites at BookMaker. If you’re betting straight up, keep in mind that over the last 10 meetings between Cleveland and New England, the Patriots have posted a 7-2 record during that stretch.

If you want a smaller sample size, the Patriots are 2-1 against the Browns over their last three meetings with their last loss to Cleveland coming in 2010. That’s right, nine years ago.

Remember when Peyton Hillis rumbled for 184 YARDS (!) and the @Browns took down the Patriots back in 2010? pic.twitter.com/PLwIYlCs68

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 24, 2019

BookMaker set the total at 43.5, but three of New England’s last four games have resulted in Under outcomes. That will likely be the case against the Browns, but the Pats will move to 8-0 and cover the spread at home — extending their streak at Gillette Stadium to 12 wins.

Pick: Patriots -11 (-110)