Early 2021 NFL Season Props – Opening Odds to Lead the League in Passing, Rushing, and Receiving

• Odds have been posted for season-long leaders in all NFL offensive yardage categories
• Derrick Henry is only repeat favorite from last season after rushing for more than 2,000 yards last year
• Read below for an overview of each category, with tables featuring players and odds

NFL training camps are set to begin at the end of this month, and hype for the upcoming season has picked up with the odds release for regular-season offensive leaders.

Derrick Henry is the lone player to return atop one of the categories after he opened at +600 last season to finish as the league’s top rusher. Henry made good on that bet, and finished with over 2,000 yards on the ground. His odds are shorter this season at +450, and that comes after the Tennessee Titans traded for superstar wide receiver Julio Jones.

Check out this year’s list of leaders and odds below, and get a head start on making your NFL futures picks.

Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards

Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards

All odds as of July 5th, 2021.

Mahomes Back on Top

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes was second to Drew Brees in the opening odds to lead the league in passing yards last season, but Houston’s Deshaun Watson actually topped them both at the end of 2020.

Of course, Brees was out for a big stretch of the year, but Watson eked-out 84 more passing yards than Mahomes with 4,823. The 2021 status of the Texans QB remains in limbo as he deals with legal issues off the field and continues to demand a trade. Houston also drafted Stanford quarterback Davis Mills with its first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

This stiff arm from Dak remains too cold. Can't wait for his 2021 season 😤 @dak @dallascowboys pic.twitter.com/ZXCX1c6r05

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) June 30, 2021

Mahomes looks like an even safer pick when the next player behind him is Dallas’ Dak Prescott, who is returning with a huge contract and a reconstructed ankle in 2021. Prescott was on a tear prior to his season-ending injury in Week 5, but how confident or skittish he may be is an unknown at this point. Betting on Prescott as an upside play would make for a better feeling than thinking of him as next best pick to Mahomes.

A more fun option might be the fifth name on the board, Justin Herbert at +1200. The Chargers’ QB nearly broke Andrew Luck’s record for most passing yards in a single season by a rookie, and did so in 15 games. Replacing tight end Hunter Henry with Jared Cook isn’t going to fire up too many people, but Henry has yet to play a full season. Meanwhile, Cook finished with just 109 fewer receiving yards than Henry last season on 23 fewer receptions.

Odds to Lead NFL in Rushing Yards

Henry Keeps Chugging Along

It’s really difficult to argue against Henry as the top choice, but can a case be made for Christian McCaffrey or any of the others at the top of the group?

The most yards-after-catch since 2018?

That's @CMC_22 with 1,983. 📊 (h/t @PFF) pic.twitter.com/AuLNz8h92E

— NFL (@NFL) July 1, 2021

The Panthers’ do-it-all back missed 13 games last season with a myriad of injuries.  When he played the entire 2019 season, he was on the field for 93% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps. In the two games he was able to play last season, he faced eight defenders in the box at a significantly lower rate than Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Cam Akers.

What works in Henry’s favor and against players like McCaffrey, Cook, or Saquon Barkley is the added regular season game this year. Although McCaffrey had proven himself durable in his first three seasons, there will be speculation that things are starting to catch up with him a bit. Carolina has one of the softest schedules this season, but has a suspect offensive line and Sam Darnold at QB.

📍January 3, 2021

Jonathan Taylor’s career game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Taylor finished with 253 rushing yards and 2 TDs. pic.twitter.com/Z33tbbMjeK

— Bring The Juice Coverage (@BTJIndyCoverage) July 1, 2021

Outside of Henry, perhaps the most compelling choice is Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor. The Wisconsin product had an emphatic finish to the 2020 regular season, when he went off against Jacksonville for 253 yards. By the final four games of last season, he was on the field for around 60% of the Colts’ offensive snaps, and he finished 2020 with 1,169 rushing yards.

Odds to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards

New Faces Highlight Receiving Group

A conversation could be had about who benefited from having the other guy more: Bills QB Josh Allen or wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

It’s not THAT catch.

But don’t forget what @stefondiggs did in last year’s Bills-Cardinals game.😤 pic.twitter.com/xzR8eAmpN2

— NFL (@NFL) June 28, 2021

Nobody doubted Allen’s arm strength, but questions about his accuracy and decision-making were persistent critiques before last season. Diggs did plenty to remedy those concerns, but even if he picks up where he left off, the competition is stiff when it comes to whether or not he can repeat as the league’s top pass-catcher.

Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson was in the conversation for Rookie of the Year honors last season, and could be a savvy bet in 2021. After establishing himself last year, he’s due to come away with a larger share of snaps than he did in 2020 at 82%. His receptions were responsible for a huge chunk of Minnesota’s air yards at 36.37% and the Vikings offense has a number of pass-catchers to keep opposing defenses from doubling him to oblivion.

It’s Diggs but here are some routes to show why Justin Jefferson’s up there too: pic.twitter.com/mZk7ScbVam

— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) June 30, 2021

Hopkins pays out well as the top option, and he should be in the conversation of top receivers by the end of the season. Arizona might not be as dynamic of a rushing team this year without Kenyan Drake, and Kyler Murray will likely be asked to do more on offene.  Hopkins had just six fewer targets last season than Diggs and finished with similar share of his team’s total air yards as his Buffalo counterpart.