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Odds Favor Both Tagovailoa and Herbert Starting 2020 as Backups

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated Mar 30, 2021 · 7:34 AM PDT

Tua Tagovailoa throwing a football
  • The Miami Dolphins drafted Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth pick in the 2020 NFL Draft
  • The Los Angeles Chargers selected Justin Herbert with their first pick and he’ll compete with Tyrod Taylor for the starting job.
  • Read below to see if we think either rookie quarterback could be a Week 1 starter

The 2020 NFL Draft has come and gone, and we now know the landing spots of all of the quarterbacks. Two of the biggest situations we were wondering about was Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. Betting odds have been posted as to whether they’ll be Week 1 starters with their respective teams, so let’s take a closer look at the odds.

Will Tua Tagovailoa Start Game 1 Of The 2020 Regular Season?

Outcome Odds
Yes +175
No -260

Odds taken Apr. 26.

Although Tagovailoa entered the 2019 college football season as the clear-cut frontrunner to be the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, a hip injury and the emergence of Joe Burrow pushed him down the draft board. At the end of the day, he didn’t fall far as the Miami Dolphins selected him with the fifth overall pick.

We know that Tagovailoa was dealing with a hip injury before, which ended his 2019 season, but all visuals that we’ve seen from his camp since is that the hip injury is no longer a problem. He’s been moving well and he’s been throwing well. That means that from a physical standpoint, he should have a shot at the starting job.

On the other hand, the Dolphins may not want to rush Tagovailoa out there. They’re a franchise that’s rebuilding and for the most part, ended the 2019 season playing pretty well with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. They’re not planning to compete for a Super Bowl out there, so there’s no rush.

That being the case, I’d bet on Tagovailoa not being on the bench in Week 1. While he might be the long-term solution, the Dolphins still have issues along the offensive line that it might not be worth the risk to trot out Tagovailoa right away.

Will Justin Herbert Start Game 1 Of The 2020 Regular Season?

Outcome Odds
Yes +240
No -380

Odds taken Apr. 26.

Herbert was never expected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft but as the day approached, it wasn’t quite clear where he’d land. Some scouts viewed him as the better prospect over Tagovailoa. Other outlets like Pro Football Focus didn’t even think he was worth drafting in the Top 10 or 20.

At any rate, Herbert has landed with the Los Angeles Chargers after they took him sixth overall. While it’s a good landing spot for him long-term, now the question is whether or not he’ll get a look at the starting job. The Chargers are currently going into the season with Tyrod Taylor as their starter.

The challenge with Herbert is that while he has all of the measurables, he’s rarely looked like a guy that elevates the roster around him. He also has some accuracy issues that might make the coaching staff weary of handing him the keys to the offense.

The other factor here is that he has a lot of work to do to get up to speed mentally. The lack of offseason mini camps is going to hurt a guy like him more so than some of the other rookies. The longer this pandemic carries on and the more practices and training sessions he misses, the longer of a shot he becomes.

At this point, I wouldn’t be on Herbert being a Week 1 starter either. The Chargers feel they have a team that can compete for the playoffs, so going with a rookie on offense puts their chances at risk. For a coaching staff that must deliver results right away, I can’t imagine they’ll take that risk.

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