Upcoming Match-ups
Tmrw
1
May
7:30 PM
MIA
BOS
+14
-14
200
10:00 PM
DAL
LAC
-3
+3
209.5

Patriots Super Bowl 53 Odds Were Never Longer Than +890 All Year

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 3:20 PM PDT

Tom Brady hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl 51
Tom Brady will be going for his 6th Super Bowl ring this Sunday. How did he and the Patriots get here? Photo: public domain.
  • The Patriots’ odds to win the 2019 Super Bowl were never worse than +890
  • Relive New England’s 2018 season and see how key events changed their forecast
  • Contrary to what Tom Brady has been saying publically, they were never considered underdogs

This postseason, the New England Patriots are trying to create a narrative that they are underdogs, that everyone had counted them out, that they’re a scrappy group of overachievers who have defied the odds.

Don’t buy it.

According to the actual Super Bowl odds, the 2018 Patriots were never worse than +890 to win the Lombardi Trophy, and heading into this Sunday’s game, they are back in a familiar position as sizable favorites.

Current Super Bowl 53 Odds

Team Odds to win Super Bowl 53 (Jan. 29)
New England Patriots -145
Los Angeles Rams +125

The Patriots stand in contrast to the 2018 Los Angeles Rams, whose odds fluctuated pretty drastically over the course of the last 12 months.

That’s not to say New England’s season was all smooth sailing. They had their ups and downs. But sportsbooks never overreacted, probably because they had the following stat plastered on the desk of every oddsmaker in the building: the Patriots have reached three of the last four and eight of the last 17 Super Bowls.

Go ahead and change those trends to 4/5 and 9/18.

How did Tom Brady and the Patriots do it, again? Let’s look back at their 2018 season. Once you’ve done so, figure out how you want to bet on the game with our Patriots vs Rams Super Bowl 53 odds, picks & predictions.

Patriots were +470 after Losing to the Eagles in Super Bowl 52

Even though the Patriots were torched by Nick Foles in Super Bowl 52, they immediately opened as the outright Super Bowl 53 favorites with average odds of +470. The next closest team was the defending champion Eagles all the way down at +740.

The AFC was seen as a significantly worse conference, and not without reason. In the last AFC Championship Game, all New England had to do was beat Blake Bortles. Here’s how the AFC landscape looked in Feb. 2018.

Graph showing the Super Bowl 53 chances for the top AFC teams as of Feb. 2018.
The Patriots’ Super Bowl odds were twice as short as the next-best AFC team in Feb. 2018.

The Patriots’ status as favorites was so predictable that Matt McEwan completely glossed over it in our first Super Bowl 53 odds article of the year.

 It may not come as a surprise to many that the Patriots opened as the Super Bowl 53 favorite at every site, but there are a handful of other odds that are headline-worthy. — Matt McEwan, Feb. 8, 2018

Quiet Offseason Tempered Expectations … a Little

The Patriots’ offseason was largely viewed as a negative. They lost OT Nate Solder, RB Dion Lewis, and WRs Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola, raising questions about Tom Brady’s supporting cast on offense.

They also did very little to bolster a questionable defense that had just been exploited on the game’s biggest stage.

Running back Sony Michel and tackle/guard Isaiah Wynn were deemed solid draft picks at positions of need, but bettors were not as confident in this team as they had once been. As a result, New England’s odds gradually dropped from +470 to +580 from February to early September.

They were still the outright favorite, though.

Slow 1-2 Start Drops Patriots to +890

As has happened from time to time in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, the Patriots came out of the gate slowly. A Week 1 win over Houston (27-20) at home was followed by ugly road setbacks to the Jaguars (31-20) and Lions (26-10).

The lack of speed on defense was palpable and even sub-par offenses like Jacksonville and Detroit were able to exploit it.

On offense, the lack of playmakers was just as transparent with Julian Edelman serving a four-game suspension.

Coincidentally, the Patriots’ (short-lived) decline coincided with a big jump from the team they are about to face. Heading into Week 4, the LA Rams had taken over top spot in the Super Bowl 53 futures at +450, prompting us to write this …

Rams Become Heavy Super Bowl 53 Favorites After Impressive Start
Read More

Los Angeles was 3-0 and looked borderline unstoppable on offense.

Patriots Sign Josh Gordon, Win Six Straight, Climb Back to +500

Recognizing that Brady needed more targets in the passing game, New England went out and signed controversial ex-Cleveland Brown WR Josh Gordon.

The hugely talented but equally troubled receiver paid dividends almost immediately. After being eased into the offense in a Week 4 rout of Miami (38-7), Gordon averaged 72.8 yards per game and caught two TDs over the next five, all Patriot wins.

He gave the team the deep threat it had been missing all year. Even when he wasn’t catching passes, he was stretching defenses, opening up room underneath for the short throws Brady thrives on.

New England’s offense was a different beast once Gordon was added, Edelman returned, and rookie Sony Michel fully healed up from a knee injury. They averaged 35.5 PPG during the six-game win streak. They hadn’t topped 27 points in the first three games of the year.

[The Patriots] averaged 35.5 PPG during the six-game win streak [from Week 4 to Week 9].

New England’s midseason win streak put them in the driver’s seat in the AFC East, as usual, and rocketed their odds back to +500, basically where they started the year.

However, they still trailed the Rams (+360) and now the Saints (+390) as well.

New England Finishes Season with Mediocre 4-3 Stretch

The six-game win streak came to an abrupt halt in Week 10 when New England was dismantled 34-10 at Tennessee.

Subsequent wins over the Jets (27-13) and Vikings (24-10) at home were followed by more road setbacks at Miami (34-33) and Pittsburgh (17-10).

While the loss at Miami came on one of the craziest plays you will ever see …


… a concerning trend was nonetheless emerging: this team was not the same away from Foxborough.

New England finished the regular season a perfect 8-0 at home, but just 3-5 on the road. They also lost Gordon to further off-field issues in Week 16.


Since the Patriots only earned the #2 seed in the AFC, they were facing the prospect of a road game at Kansas City in the AFC title game, a team they had barely managed to beat in Foxborough in Week 6 (43-40) with Gordon in the lineup.

Heading into the playoffs, New England had taken a modest drop from +500 to +610. Not only did that trail the Saints and Rams, it was also behind the top-seeded Chiefs (+460), who were led by MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes.

Patriots “Flip the Switch” against the Chargers

New England used their first-round bye wisely, though. When the Chargers rolled into Gillette Stadium in the Divisional Round, New England was “only” a 4.5-point home favorite and LA was a chique upset pick.

New England actually entered the Divisional Round with the longest moneyline of all the home teams.

Side note: this is where Tom Brady likely got the idea that “everyone thinks we suck, and … can’t win any games,” which is a bit of a stretch from, “the Chargers could pull an upset.”

The outcome was never in doubt, however. New England laid one of the biggest playoff beatdowns in recent memory, opening up a 35-7 lead on the Chargers before halftime.

Tom Brady, who had only posted a passer rating of 97.7 during the regular season (his lowest since 2014), was in peak form. The five-time Super Bowl champ threw for 343 yards, 1 TD, zero INTs, and a 106.5 passer rating.

As a team, New England outgained the Chargers 498-335, won the turnover battle 2-0, and had nearly a 2-to-1 edge in time of possession

In other words, they reminded the entire football world, “we are the goddam Patriots!”

Patriots Edge Chiefs in Epic AFC Championship

Kansas City held serve as the top seed in the AFC, setting up a conference championship game at Arrowhead, exactly what Pats fans feared.

As expected, New England was a small underdog on the road and their Super Bowl odds were third among the four teams remaining.

Average Super Bowl 53 Odds Ahead of Conf. Champ. Weekend

Team Average Super Bowl 53 Odds as of Jan. 14, 2019
New Orleans Saints +175
Kansas City Chiefs +260
New England Patriots +340
Los Angeles Rams +360

But, as it has so many times during the Patriot dynasty, coaching proved a huge difference-maker. Belichick leaned on his surging ground game to churn out first downs, eat up the clock, and keep Mahomes on the sideline.

It worked to perfection in the first half as New England took a 14-0 lead into the break. KC found its stride in the second half and forced OT at 31-31. But Brady marched New England down the field with apparent ease on the first possession, and Rex Burkhead capped off the game-winning drive with a 2-yard TD.


New England was full value for the win. The Pats piled up 524 yards (including 176 on the ground) compared to the Chiefs’ 290. Just like the previous week, they thoroughly controlled the clock, finishing with a 43:59 to 20:53 advantage in time of possession, including OT.

Patriots Open as Super Bowl 53 Underdogs, Immediately Become -145 Favorites

Likely based on advanced analytics (such as DVOA), which indicated that the Rams are the slightly better team based on full-season performance, most online sportsbooks opened their Super Bowl 53 odds with the Rams as small favorites.

The sharps and public, alike, pounced. The early money was almost exclusively on New England, driving the spread as high as Patriots -3 at certain sites, and the moneyline as high as Patriots -150.

Not only is New England playing its best football of the season, the Rams were extremely lucky to advance past New Orleans, needing a blown-call-heard-around-the-world to escape with a 26-23 OT win.


So unfortunately for Tom Brady, the narrative that “no one believes in the Patriots” just isn’t true.

Sure, they have been heavier chalk in years past and there is a certain contingent that thinks the dynasty is winding down, but the odds tell a much different story. Sportsbooks have never really doubted this team.

Bettors could have wagered on the Rams, Chiefs, and Saints at +1900 (or higher) at certain points. The worst odds for the Patriots at any point in the last 12 months is +890.

Bettors could have wagered on the Rams, Chiefs, and Saints at +1900 (or higher) at certain points. The worst odds for the Patriots at any point in the last 12 months was +890. That’s a mighty high level of respect, the kind you earn with four Super Bowl appearances in five years.

Author Image