Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins (Game 7): Preview & Prediction

Hockey fans can address their thank-you cards to Frederik Andersen c/o the Toronto Maple Leafs. Thanks to Andersson’s 32-save Game 6 performance, the Leafs and Bruins will meet in the pinnacle of NHL entertainment tomorrow night: Game 7.

The winner-take-all tilt is set for 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston (April 25).

Despite failing to capitalize on two chances to close out the Leafs, the Bruins opened as sizeable home favorites for Game 7 (see table, below). The over/under started at 5.5 with the over a very slight favorite.

Keep reading for the key stats, trends, and injury news, plus final score prediction.

Straight-Up Playoff Prediction Record: 6-2
Moneyline Playoff Prediction Profits ($100 wagers): +$311.30

Opening Odds

Both teams started Game 1 somewhat tentatively, with no goals and few quality scoring chances in the first period, though Boston did end the frame with 17 shots to Toronto’s 10.

It didn’t take long for the goose eggs to disappear in the second. Jake Debrusk made it 1-0 Boston just 1:02 in, and William Nylander answered for the Leafs 35 seconds later.

After a disallowed goal by Zach Hyman (goaltender interference), Mitch Marner gave Toronto the lead at the 13:25 mark, capping off arguably their best period of the series.

Andersen would take it from there, turning aside 32 of 33 shots, total, including a potentially season-preserving save on a cross-ice one-timer by David Krejci late in the third.

Key Injuries & Absences

Both teams are relatively healthy heading into the decisive Game 7. Komarov missed his second straight game on Monday, despite taking pre-game warmup. Mike Babcock has already stated that Komarov will be healthy enough to play in Game 7, but may not reinsert him into the lineup since he’s missed the last four games.

Andreas Johnsson has played in Komarov’s stead and is making Babcock’s decision all the tougher. The rookie left winger has a goal and an assist in five playoff games so far.

[Patrice Bergeron] returned [from a LBI] in Game 5 and has logged over 20 minutes in each of the last two.

The Bruins were forced to play without four-time Selke winner (and 2018 finalist) Patrice Bergeron (LBI) in Game 4, but he returned in Game 5 and has logged over 20 minutes in each of the last two. There’s no reason to expect anything less in Game 7.

Regular Season Team Stats

Betting Results & Trends*

*Statistics in this table include playoffs but date back to regular season.

Score Prediction

I’ve extolled the Bruins’ puck-possession numbers before; they had a 53.80% Fenwick at 5-on-5 this year, best in the NHL, compared to 48.67% for the Leafs. Boston’s top line of Bergeron-Pasternak-Marchand — arguably the most dominant line in the league, at least in terms of driving the play — was a combined -4 in Game 6, which is almost unheard of for the trio.

It’s too hard to count on something similar happening in Game 7, not with the prior playoff experience of Bergeron and Marchand, in particular, who each registered two goals in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals back in 2011.

Even after his magical Game 6, Andersen’s playoff stats are still very concerning: .909 SV% and 3.30 GAA.

If the Leafs aren’t getting the better of Boston at even strength, then their second-ranked power play will have to make up the difference. But without controlling possession and generating consistent pressure, the Leafs will struggle to draw penalties. Indeed, they only have 13 PP opportunities through the first six games.

When you add in the fact that Boston had the #2 penalty kill in the regular season, it becomes harder and harder to write a plausible script in which the Leafs come out on top.

The most plausible is that the abundance of goal-scoring talent on the Leafs’ roster capitalizes on a few Boston mistakes, while Andersen turns in another Conn Smythe-worthy performance. But that’s not an outcome worth betting on. Even after his magical Game 6, Andersen’s playoff stats are still forboding: .909 SV% and 3.30 GAA.