EPL Odds: Arsenal’s Top-4 Streak in Jeopardy

In many ways, the 2016-17 season is a return to normalcy for the English Premier League. Leicester City is back in the bottom half of the standings; Chelsea is back in first; and the usual cadre of elite English teams have once again risen to the top.

All except for Arsenal.

Over the last two decades, you could always count on a top-four finish from the Gunners. Arsene Wenger has come under criticism for his failure to win trophies, but to his credit, he has handed Arsenal a top-four finish (and a Champions League qualification) every year for 20 consecutive seasons.

If Arsenal fail to finish within the top four this season, it will be the first time since Wenger took over (1996-97). And unless we see both a drastic improvement from the Gunners and a dramatic blow-out from a top-tier side in the few remaining weeks, it’s looking like Wenger’s seat in the top four will finally be vacated.

Let’s put a number on their chances.

2016-17 English Premier League: Odds to Finish Top-Four

Chelsea (24-3-5, 75 points): OFF

It is mathematically impossible for Chelsea to finish outside of the top four. They’re currently four points clear of the league and 15 points clear of fifth. With only six games to go, their top-four spot and Champions League qualification is guaranteed.

Tottenham (21-8-3, 71 points): 1/300

Chelsea’s two recent losses reignited Tottenham’s hopes for the title. They’re just four points below the Blues and are currently on a seven-game winning streak. They’re five points clear of third-place Liverpool and 11 points clear of fifth. Their spot in the top four is pretty much guaranteed, the question is whether they’ll contest the title.

Liverpool (19-9-5, 66 points): 1/9

Liverpool have done well to reach third place in the league, but they have played at least one more game than the other top-four contenders and have the two Manchester clubs breathing down their necks. Nevertheless, they’re on a seven-game unbeaten streak and have a relatively easy schedule ahead. If they stay the course, they should finish within the top four.

Manchester City (19-7-6, 64 points): 1/9

If Man City can keep their fellow Manchester rivals at bay, then they should finish in at least fourth place. The upcoming Manchester Derby could determine their fate within the top four. But other than the Man United clash, they don’t have any tough games in the remainder of the season. Man United, on the other hand, have quite a few. So even if City lose, it’s still likely they’ll finish ahead of their bitter rivals.

Manchester United (16-12-3, 60 points): 17/3

Man United just grabbed a huge 2-0 win over Chelsea on the weekend and are currently on a 22-game unbeaten streak. They’re in fifth place, four points back of fourth, but they have at one game in hand on City and two on Liverpool. If they take the full six points in their next two, they would move into a tie with the Reds.

That’s great news for United, but keep in mind that they have a tough road ahead. In the upcoming weeks, they face three top-tier clubs — Manchester City, Arsenal, and Tottenham. They’ll need a near-flawless performance to crack the top four.

Arsenal (16-6-8, 54 points): 24/1

If Arsenal are going to break the top four this season, they’ll need to come up with something truly special. They’re currently ten points from fourth and, though they have two games in hand on Man City, there’s little reason to think they’ll be able to use them. After falling to Crystal Palace last week, the team has now lost have lost three of its last five fixtures.

The squad lacks motivation; the players have turned on the club; and manager Arsene Wenger’s future remains uncertain. These are dark times for Arsenal.