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ATP Rogers Cup Final Odds & Pick: Nadal vs Medvedev

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 10:38 AM PDT

Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal is in the Rogers Cup Final in Montreal. Photo from @CoupeRogers (Twitter).
  • Rafael Nadal will play Daniil Medvedev in the Rogers Cup Final Sunday afternoon at IGA Stadium
  • Gael Monfils withdrew from his semifinal match against Rafael Nadal this afternoon, after battling injury in his quarterfinals match earlier in the day
  • With a win, Nadal would capture his fifth Rogers Cup trophy

This finals match up shouldn’t be that much of a surprise as both Nadal and Medvedev were expected to do well in Montreal this year. The 2019 odds for the Rogers Cup, prior to the tournament starting had Nadal as the favorite to take the tournament at +200, and Medvedev as third at +1100.

2019 ATP Rogers Cup Finals Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Rafael Nadal -3.0 (-130) -250 O 22.5 (Even)
Daniil Medvedev +3.0 (Even) +200 U 22.5 (-130)

Odds taken 8/11/19 .

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Rafa is the favorite to win this match. But no one is giving him incredible odds, that should result in an easy win for him. Both players have improved their starting odds incredibly as mentioned above.

Rafa’s Easy Trip to Finals

Without hitting a tennis ball Rafael Nadal booked his trip to the finals of the Rogers Cup after Gael Monfils withdrew from the match. Monfils announced to the crowd that he would be unable to take the court for the semifinal match against the Spaniard due to an ankle injury. The injury happened in the second set of his match against Bautista Agut. With that result, Rafael Nadal will face off against Daniil Medvedev for the first time in both of of their careers.

Rafa did had to battle back in Montreal in his quarterfinal match up against No.11 Fabio Fognini to win 2-6, 6-1, 6-2. With Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer skipping out on this year’s tournament, Nadal is the top seed.

A First Time for Everything

This is the first time the 23-year old and the 33-year old will match up in their careers. Medvedev has played some of his best tennis at the Rogers Cup 2019, but the Rogers Cup tournament has always been favorable to Nadal.

The Russian has yet to drop a set on Canadian soil this year, and he’s been playing with such force and control in his game. But having not played Nadal in the past could prove dangerous for the Russian, and Nadal tennis IQ is so high, and his skills are so refined.

YouTube video

Up Against Greatness

Although Nadal is 33-years old, there has been no signs of slowing down. His quarterfinal win on Friday was his 40th win of the year, which brings his record to 40-6 this year.

“I’m having a good season, more or less, being competitive almost in every single event that I have been playing.” – Nadal

Rafa most recent match had him winning 88% of his first serve points, served up seven aces and won 76 of 137 points.

The finals on Sunday will be Medvedev’s first ATP Masters 1000 final and has goals of now reaching top-5 ranking or higher.

Where to Put Your Money

Nadal is going after his fifth Rogers Cup title, and now he’ll be playing on two days rest as well. Something that seems to be unheard of in this tournament. The two players have yet to face each other before, so there’s no history to go off of. The decade age gap between the two might be a benefit to Medvedev, which could make things a bit more interesting. But Nadal’s 4-0 record in Rogers Cup finals speaks for itself.

If Nadal had played his semifinals match and won to move onto the finals, there might have been a different story here. But after he fought back in the quarters, the Spaniard looks to be ready to take home his fifth trophy.

Pick: Nadal (-223)

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