Daniel Evans vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds & Prediction – Monte-Carlo Masters Semifinals
- Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing his sixth Masters 1000 semifinal; Dan Evans is playing his first
- Tsitsipas is the heavy favorite for the match, to be played Saturday at 7:30 am EDT
- Evans is having a career tournament on clay; we break down his chances for the upset
It’s easy to have a letdown the day after you upset the world No. 1.
But Daniel Evans backed up his momentous victory over Novak Djokovic with another upset in the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals Thursday, this time over No. 11 seed David Goffin of Belgium.
Daniel Evans vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Evans (GBR) | +4.5 (+114) | +390 | O 20.5 (-124) |
| [4] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | -4.5 (-141) | -500 | U 20.5 (+100) |
Odds as of April 16
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Evans on a Singles and Doubles Roll
The 30-year old Brit has had a busy week on court in Monaco, as he’s gone deep into the week in both singles and doubles.
The first British male to reach a Masters 1000 semi-final since…
Andy Murray, Paris 2016 🙌#RolexMCMasters pic.twitter.com/AkGT2PbxWm
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 16, 2021
In addition to the singles victories, Evans and countryman Ken Skupski defeated the solid Belgian team of Joran Vliegen and Sander Gille in the first round of doubles. And then they upset the reigning Australian Open champion and No. 3 seeds, Ivan Dodig of Croatia and Filip Polasek of Slovakia before winning again on Friday to reach the semifinals.
It’s a lot of tennis: double-headers on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. And then another one in store on Saturday.
Daniel Evans’s Road to Monte-Carlo Singles Semis
| Round | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dusan Lajovic (SRB) | 6-3, 6-7 (11), 6-2 |
| R2 | [13] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | 6-4, 6-1 |
| R3 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | 6-4, 7-5 |
| QF | [11] David Goffin (BEL) | 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
Easy Day for Tsitsipas Friday
As Evans was fighting back against Goffin on Friday – two hours and 42 minutes just for the singles, with doubles after that – Tsitsipas had an easy day at the office.
Facing Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the Greek world No. 5 won a tight first set 7-5.
An unfortunate end 😞
Davidovich Fokina is forced to retire in his first Masters 1000 quarter-final, sending Tsitsipas through to the last 4
Hope to see you on court soon, @alexdavidovich1 🙏 pic.twitter.com/DUsEWgmHyG
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 16, 2021
And then Davidovich Fokina retired from the match with an ankle injury that had clearly been hampering him throughout most of the set.
Daniel Evans vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Previous Matches
| Year | Tournament | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Hamburg (Clay – R32) | 6-3, 6-1 | Tsitsipas |
| 2020 | Dubai (Hard – SF) | 6-2, 6-3 | Tsitsipas |
With a first-round bye, and the retirement from Davidovich Fokina, Tsitsipas has played just five sets of singles compared to Evans’s nine this week.
Tsitsipas also played doubles with his brother Petros. But they lost in the second round, and he had better scheduling. So he is by far the fresher player.
Daniel Evans vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Head-to-Head
| 30 (May 23, 1990) | Age | 22 (Aug. 12, 1998) |
| Birmingham, England | Birthplace | Athens, Greece |
| 5-9 | Height | 6-4 |
| 1 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 5 |
| No. 26 (Feb. 8, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 5 (Aug. 5, 2019) |
| No. 33 | Current Ranking | No. 5 |
| $3,492,505 | Career Prize Money | $13,537,892 |
| 10-5 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 20-5 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 2 |
Tsitsipas’s Best Surface is Clay
It’s fairly well-known that clay is Evans’s worst surface. It’s a surface he appears only now, at 30, to have the fitness, patience, and understanding to have success on.
But for Tsitipas, winning-percentage-wise, it’s his best surface. He has one career title on clay, at a small event in Estoril, Portugal. But he also reached the finals of the Masters 1000 tournament in Madrid in 2019 (which is at altitude, and therefore a little quicker), in Barcelona in 2018 (a 500 tournament) and also in Hamburg in 2020.
Tsitsipas shocked Nadal in the semis in Madrid, before Djokovic defeated him in that 2019 final.
The question will be if Evans’s variety can throw him off enough. And the other question is whether Evans’s body will continue to treat him kindly despite all the tennis he has played this week.
Tsitsipas also has variety in his game. And he’ll present quite a different challenge to Evans compared to his previous opponents. Tsitsipas also has the biggest serve Evans has faced in singles this week.
The Brit’s odds improved a little bit throughout Friday afternoon. But he’s still a significant long shot.
The last match on clay between the two was a mismatch. But Evans is a different player on the surface with his effort this week.
There might be a little value in the game totals at +106 for over 21.5 games, which could work out to something like a 7-5, 6-4 Tsitsipas victory.
Best Bet: Tsitsipas in two sets (-157)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
