Tsitispas 5-1 Odds Behind Djokovic at -400 to Win 4th Quarter at Aussie Open

• Novak Djokovic has made it to the Australian Open quarterfinals in 10 of the last 12 years
• Roberto Bautista Agut has won two of his last three matches against Djokovic
• Stefanos Tsitsipas has a career 2-2 record against Djokovic, although they’ve never faced off at a grand slam

The draw for the 2020 Australian Open has been announced. Novak Djokovic, who is the favorite to win the event, is an even heavier favorite to win his quarter (Quarter 4) at -400. While he might get a test or two from his draw, is anyone really going to beat him in Quarter 4? Let’s take a closer look at his challengers.

2020 Australian Open Men’s Singles 4th Quarter Odds

Odds taken Jan. 17

Tsitsipas Second in Line in Quarter 4

The oddsmakers have made it clear that if it’s not Djokovic winning Quarter 4, they’re expecting Greek youngster Stefanos Tsitsipas to come away with it. While there is a slew of players in the quarter, Tsitsipas is the only other player on the board who is inside of 20/1.

Many people might say that Tsitsipas was one of the breakout stars of 2019 as he won three titles, was 54-25 in singles and earning just shy of $7.5 million. At the same time, the way he ended the year and has started the 2020 season does not exactly provide a lot of encouragement.

Tsitsipas did win the Nitto ATP Finals but we know that this event really doesn’t mean a whole lot (Alex Zverev won in 2018). Prior to that, Tsitsipas had a few good runs at tournaments in the fall but also lost in his first match at the Zhuhai Open, the Western & Southern Open and the Rogers Cup.

To start off 2020, the 21-year-old is just 1-2 with losses to Denis Shapovalov and Nick Kyrgios. In the Kyrgios defeat, he lost his cool and actually had a meltdown that included him accidentally hurting his father when he smashed his racket.

Is he the best player in this quarter outside of Djokovic? Sure. Is he in any way, shape or form a reliable player to be betting on for any type of futures? I’d say no. Maybe he’ll become less of a hothead and more consistent over time but right now, I’m not on his side here.

Will Djokovic Stumble?

Djokovic is going to be a sizable favorite over just about everyone in his draw, so I wouldn’t expect him to lose at any point before the quarterfinals. Sure, he had a couple of surprise exits in the second and fourth rounds in 2017 and 2018 but other than that, he’s been to the quarters in 10 of the last 12 Aussie Opens.

In terms of seeds he might run into in his quarter, we’re looking at maybe countryman Dusan Lajovic, Diego Schwartzman, Roberto Bautista Agut or Tsitsipas. Djokovic has never lost to Lajovic or Schwartzman (combined 5-0) and is 8-3 against Bautista Agut.

Bautista Agut is 3-3 against Djokovic in his last six with his three wins coming on outdoor hard courts. However, the 31-year-old has only been past the fourth round at the Australian Open once, which was last year.

As for Tsitsipas, he’s 2-2 against Djokovic but they haven’t faced off in a grand slam. Djokovic is far more beatable in the ATP Masters 1000 events or other smaller tournaments than he is in grand slams.

If I had to bet someone outside of Djokovic to win this quarter, it would be Bautista Agut at +2000. However, I don’t see anyone slowing down Djokovic in this tournament at any point – let alone before the quarters.