UCL Betting: Real fights for 1st; Bayern fights for pride

The UEFA Champions League group stage is coming to an end, but before we head into the knockout stage, there’s still one round of fixtures to be played. Most of the games are of little to no consequence, but there are two games you should definitely keep an eye on: Bayern Munich v Atletico Madrid and Dortmund v Real Madrid.

Bayern’s matchup with Atletico (Tuesday, December 6) is a high-profile but low-stakes game. The standings for group D are set in stone; regardless of the score on Tuesday, Atletico will qualify in first and Bayern will qualify in second.

Things are not so concrete in Group F. Dortmund are currently in first but they’re only two points clear of Real Madrid. A win for Real (Wednesday, December 7) will bump them into top spot and, in all likelihood, set them up against an easier opponent in the round of 16. Anything else will see Dortmund end the group stage on top. 

Do the different stakes impact how you should play these two marquee fixtures?

Bayern Munich (-150) vs Atletico Madrid (+520), Draw (+310)

Atletico (5-0-0, 15 points) have swept Group D with a perfect 15 points, winning all five games so far. Meanwhile, Bayern (3-0-2, 9 points) have been less than spectacular in the group stage, losing to Atletico as well as to FC Rostov, a little known Russian side.

The first time these two teams faced off in the group stage, Atletico edged out Bayern (1-0) in Spain. Atletico deserved the win and were unlucky not to have won by a larger margin after Antoine Griezmann missed a penalty late in the game.

On paper, Bayern are the stronger side, and the bookmakers seem to view them as the heavy favorite at home. In reality, the Bavarians have nothing but pride on the line, and it’s unlikely that either team will overwork its key players or risk any yellow card suspensions. The draw has value.

Pick: Draw (+310)

Real Madrid (-118) vs Dortmund (+365), Draw (+320)

Neither Dortmund (4-1-0, 13 points) nor Real Madrid (3-2-0, 11 points) have lost a game in the group stage. However, Dortmund have won one more game, which puts them two points ahead of Real.

The first time the two teams faced off, Dortmund managed to clinch a draw (2-2) with a late equalizer in the 87th minute. While Real will need to press for a win in order to move up to first, Dortmund will be completely content with a draw. On top of that, Real will be lacking their usual firepower up front and in the midfield, with Gareth Bale ruled out until February and Toni Kroos likely to still be injured. Again, the tie offers bettors some good value, given that one side will essentially be playing for it from the outset. 

Pick: Draw (+320)

Photo credit: “Cristiano Ronaldo” by Jim Pop, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.