Australia vs USA Men’s Olympic Basketball Semifinal Odds and Picks
- Australia and USA meet in the semifinal of the Men’s Olympic Basketball on Thursday August, 5th
- The US is favored by 11.5 points despite losing to the Australians in an exhibition game in Las Vegas last month
- Read below for the latest odds, betting analysis and picks
The two pre-tournament favorites for the gold medal matchup in the semifinal of the Men’s OIympic Basketball on Thursday. Australia saw off Argentina on Tuesday, while the USA got past Spain to set up this duel. Despite impressing throughout their exhibition games and the tournament itself, the Boomers are 11.5-point underdogs for Thursday’s semifinal.
This USA roster is stacked with All-Stars. On paper, it should cruise to the gold, but their Olympic journey has had plenty of hiccups already.
Basketball fans in the US can watch this live on Peacock Premium. It requires a subscription. Those with an appropriate cable deal can stream Australia vs USA on the NBC Sports App or NBC Olympics.
Australia vs USA Semifinal Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total Points at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | +11.5 (-110) | +500 | Over 179.5 (-106) |
| USA | -11.5 (-110) | -850 | Under 179.5 (-114) |
Odds as of Aug 4th
Aussies’ Previous Win
Led by Patty Mills and Joe Ingles, Australia stunned the USA in a warm-up game. It was an historic loss for Gregg Popovich’s team, and while they have improved their performances since then, it serves as a warning sign ahead of this semifinal.
Where ball movement has been the backbone of the Australian play, the USA have slipped into isolation tendencies at times. This has been a problem throughout, and it was evident when they met in Las Vegas. Just like their other losses, it was an example of the USA running out of steam down the stretch. Their fourth quarter execution was non-existent. Australia knew their game plan, knew their teammates, and managed to generate open shots.
Matisse Thybulle is an absurd shot blocker for a wing, and he just blocked Kevin Durant! pic.twitter.com/izl6psCEnr
— Billy Heyen (@BillyHeyen) July 13, 2021
They will look to this as a blueprint. The size of Nick Kay and Jock Landale will be valuable on the glass, while the shooting and shot creation of Ingles and Mills gives some offensive punch. Matisse Thybulle’s defensive wizardry will be key off the bench, particularly if Kevin Durant gets going like he did in the last round.
Talent Wins Out
Performances like Durant’s against Spain have always been the argument that this USA team will win gold. Durant scored 29 on 17 shots, and was supported by 13 points on seven shots from Jayson Tatum. For all the talk of chemistry, hustle and size, this USA team is objectively more talented than any of their opponents.
Thybulle is SCARY on D and I absolutely love it #boomers #Tokyo2020
— Dylan Alcott (@DylanAlcott) August 3, 2021
Durant, in particular, is un-guardable when he gets hot. The play of Thybulle – who must avoid foul trouble – is so significant as a result. He’s an incredibly impactful defensive player who can slow down even the best scorers in the history of the game. The Boomers will throw the Sixers wing at any of the USA’s offensive stars, though Durant will likely be his focus early on.
The Exclamation Point❕ @KDTrey5
🇺🇸 #USABMNT x #Tokyo2020 pic.twitter.com/en5pdPujvk
— USA Basketball (@usabasketball) August 3, 2021
The offensive production from the USA has been inconsistent. A roster of guys who are used to being first and second options has created some issues. Efficiency has been hard to come by for some players, and this was particularly evident against Spain as Devin Booker and Dame Lillard went a combined eight-for-23 from the field.
Boomers Stay Close
There’s less margin for error against the Australians than there was against Spain. The Boomers have more talent and will not lean as heavily on one player as the Spaniards did with Ricky Rubio. They are getting just enough production from their bench, and will head into this semifinal with bundles of confidence after their exhibition game win over the USA and their blow out of Argentina.
Jock is in EVERYTHING!
We could get used to this Exum/Landale partnership! 🤝#Tokyo2020 https://t.co/0TR9Oerbdh
— Basketball Australia (@BasketballAus) August 3, 2021
It’s easy to talk yourself into a swing on the Aussies at +500. That’s a long price for a team with a win against the USA so recently, and who have won every one of their games in this tournament so far.
The value bet is probably still the spread. The Americans only beat Spain by 14 points, and this will be a much sterner test.
Pick: Australia +11.5 (-110)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
