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Odds Say Elon Musk is Taking Tesla Private Before 2020

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Entertainment

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 2:08 PM PDT

Elon Musk
Elon Musk at the Tesla Factory, in Fremont, CA. Photo by Maurizio Pesce (flickr)
  • Elon Musk claimed he had secured funding to take Tesla private. He hadn’t
  • Now Tesla is under federal investigation for financial fraud
  • Will Tesla end up going private by 2020?

It all started with a joke. Well, at least it appeared to be a joke.

“Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.” Elon Musk tweeted on August 7th. “Shareholders could either to sell at 420 or hold shares & go private.”

It turns out that funding to go private was far from secure, and so joke or not, Musk may have committed financial fraud. Tesla was already under investigation by the SEC for false statements made about their manufacturing goals and sales targets.

Now Musk’s tweet has gotten the Justice Department involved.

Telsa’s stock rose to $380 after Musk’s tweet in August, but a month later it was at a low of $263. If Musk really does plan to take Tesla private at $420, he’s still got a long way to go.

Odds Elon Musk Takes Tesla Private Before 2020

Will Elon Musk Take Tesla Private By 2020? Odds
Yes -150
No +110

What’s Going on with Musk?

It’s been a weird minute for Elon Musk.

He accused a British cave diver of being a pedophile after the diver criticized his submarine idea. He got baked with Joe Rogan on his show and played with his samurai sword. And he claimed that he had funding to take Tesla private when he didn’t.

If this were any other car company, the CEO would have been fired for doing any one of these things. But Tesla is different.

Elon Musk is the founder and face of the company and there’s no way to separate his name from Tesla’s. Besides, why would they want to?

There’s an “Elon Musk premium” in the Tesla stock price. No other car company would be valued as highly with such a low production output.

Could Musk Actually Get Funding?

Musk has been in talks with Saudi Arabia to secure funding that would allow him to take Tesla private. It may seem strange that the oil-rich nation is looking to branch out into electric vehicles, but that may just be a sign of the times.

There seems to be some real interest there, but it’s far from “Funding Secured.”

No More Musk Means No More Tesla

If Elon Musk goes down then so will Tesla.

Think of Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford, General Motors, or any other major auto company. Can you tell me anything about their CEO? Probably not.

Musk is constantly in the news and his behavior affects Tesla’s stock prices — and not always in a good way. When he smoked weed with Joe Rogan, the price dipped. When his tweet prompted a federal investigation, the price tanked. And when he called a British cave diver a pedo, Tesla shed $2 billion.

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Too much hinges on Elon Musk, and the man has become increasingly erratic in recent months. Throwing down $50 billion — or however much it’ll cost to take Tesla private — is a huge gamble considering how volatile the CEO has been in recent months.

There’s good value in NO (+110) at the moment.

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