Astros vs Mariners Game 3 Odds, Lines & Picks

• Game 3 of the ALDS sees Seattle as a -110 moneyline favorite in the Astros vs Mariners odds on Saturday (Oct. 15) at 4:07 pm ET
• Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2, 2.27 ERA) will take the ball for Houston, while Seattle counters with rookie George Kirby (8-5, 3.39 ERA)
• The complete set of Astros vs Mariners ALDS Game 3 odds are below, along with analysis and a prediction

The Mariners’ backs are up against the wall as they travel back home for Game 3 of the ALDS. Seattle dropped the first two games of the series in Houston and now face a must win game on Saturday to extend their season.

Oddsmakers are bullish on their chances, as they’ve pegged the Mariners as the home chalk over the Astros in this pivotal clash.

Astros vs Mariners Game 3 Odds

Odds as of October 14 at Barstool Sportsbook. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code. 

Seattle is currently a -110 moneyline favorite, in a contest that features a total of 7. Houston is -1300 to win this series and advance to the ALCS in the MLB playoff bracket, with the M’s coming back as a +1000 underdog.

First pitch for Game 3 is scheduled for 4:07 pm ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington, with sunshine and 73-degree game time temperatures on deck.

Houston vs Seattle Probable Pitchers

WIth their season on the line, the M’s will turn to rookie George Kirby, not 2021 Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray. The latter was thought to be the prime candidate to start Game 3 prior to the series starting, but perhaps his performance so far this postseason influenced Seattle’s decision.

Ray was rocked by the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, and then served up the game-winning home run to Yordan Alvarez in the series opener. That was easily the biggest moment of the ALDS, and it’s hard to imagine the M’s will recover from it.

Mariners fans: “We’re up by two runs in the ninth inning, what could possibly go wrong?”

Robbie Ray: pic.twitter.com/GdICE68EAT

— Brian (@byysports) October 11, 2022

Kirby made his playoff debut against the Jays last weekend, throwing an inning of shutout ball in relief. He started 25 games in 2022, recording eight wins and an impressive 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate.

The 24-year-old lasted 4 innings in his lone start against Houston this season, allowing four hits and two runs while striking out seven. If there’s a concern, it’s that he’s susceptible to the long ball. He allowed 1.34 home runs per 9 innings, well above the league average, and issued a .264 opponent average.

McCullers Jr. vs Kirby Stats

The Astros will counter with Lance McCullers Jr., who’ll make his 10th career playoff start. McCullers was sidelined for the majority of 2022 as he battled back from a forearm strain, but looked like his old self when he returned.

Lance McCullers Jr. is back 🔥

6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K pic.twitter.com/vxKzbOywLd

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 14, 2022

He posted a .227 ERA and held the opposition to two runs or less in seven of eight starts. He didn’t face Seattle in 2022, but has fared well versus them in the past. He’s held current Mariner hitters to a .229 average over 96 at-bats, yielding only seven extra-base hits.

Astros vs Mariners Betting Trends

After exploding for 17 runs in their previous two games, Seattle came back down to earth in Game 2. They managed only five hits, and were once again stymied by the Houston bullpen. Astros relievers have now held the M’s to four hits and one run over 8 innings this series.

#Mariners Scott Servais “I do know how hard it is to win on the road. It’ll be very hard for them to win in Seattle, I’ll tell you that.” @SportsTalk790 #ALDS pic.twitter.com/sSX76OOyA2

— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) October 13, 2022

Julio Rodriguez, Ty France and Eugenio Suarez, Seattle’s top-three hitters, were 1-for-12 in Game 2, and life won’t get any easier against McCullers Jr. The Mariners averaged nearly a full run less at home than as visitors this season, as T-Mobile Park grades out as the third worst park for hitters in MLB.

Houston on the other hand, has Alvarez to thank for yet another come from behind win on Thursday. Alvarez hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the 6th inning, which turned out to be the difference. He’s the first player in playoff history to hit multiple go-ahead homers in the 6th inning or later with his team trailing.

Yordan Alvarez is the first player in MLB postseason history with multiple career go-ahead HR in the 6th inning or later when his team was trailing, each of his coming in his last 2 games off of Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo. pic.twitter.com/CjGJRR4o0y

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 13, 2022

He came back up again in 8th inning with a runner on, and instead of facing him the Mariners elected to give him a free pass. That strategy backfired as Alex Bregman singled home an insurance run in the next at-bat.

As good as the Astros lineup is, they struggled in Seattle during the regular season. Houston averaged less than three runs per game there (2.8), which was nearly two runs fewer than their season-long average.

HOU vs SEA – ALDS Results

Astros vs Mariners Prediction

Given the propensity for offensive struggles in Seattle, and the quality of the Astros pitching, under 7 runs seems like an ideal target for Game 3.

Targeting unders has been extremely profitable at T-Mobile Park, as 58% of Seattle’s home games during the regular season fell short of the total. That includes six of the nine matchups on home field against Houston, including five of the last six meetings.

Pick: Under 7 (-109).