Astros vs Rangers Picks & Odds (July 3)

• The Astros vs Rangers odds list Houston as -115 moneyline favorites on Monday
• Christian Javier (7-1, 3.72 ERA) takes the ball for Houston, while Texas counters with Martin Perez (7-3, 4.28 ERA)
• Check out the latest Astros vs Rangers odds below, plus picks

Raise your hand if you had the Rangers (50-34, 27-17 home) ahead of the defending champion Astros (46-38, 24-19 away) atop the AL West after 84 games. Considering Texas’ World Series odds were roughly nine times longer than Houston’s before the season began, I’m going to assume there aren’t a lot of hands in the air.

The Rangers have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, and have played the Astros tough in their six 2023 meetings so far. Nevertheless, online sportsbooks are siding with Houston in Monday’s MLB odds, as the division rivals wrap-up a four-game set.

Astros vs Rangers Odds

The Astros are currently -115 moneyline favorites, in a contest with a total of 9. First pitch is scheduled for 2:05 pm ET at Globe Life Field, in Arlington, Texas, with sunshine, and blistering 95 degree game-time temperatures on deck.

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Houston vs Texas Probable Pitchers

Houston will give the ball to Cristian Javier, who’s come crashing back down to earth over the last 10 days. The 26-year-old has been roughed up in back-to-back outings, and is fresh off the worst start of his campaign.

Javier yielded eight hits, two homers and six runs in 4 innings to the Cardinals on Wednesday, which marked his second shortest start this season. The only outing that lasted fewer innings was his previous start, when he failed to make it out of the 3rd. The Mets tagged him for four runs in that contest, as he issued four hits and five walks.

Something is wrong with Cristian Javier.

At his best, he’s borderline unhittable.

His velo is down, and his “invisiball” feels like it has less of the deceptiveness and rising effect.

Good news is it’s likely fixable.
Bad news is the velo drop is of concern.

— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) June 29, 2023

That brings his ERA for 14.21 over the last two weeks, after he posted an ERA of 2.40 in May. Javier still sports a sparkling 7-1 record and hasn’t lost a start since April. That’s largely thanks to his offense, as the Astros have provided him with at least nine runs of support in six of his past seven appearances.

On the bright side, he’s had plenty of success versus the Texas regulars in the MLB starting lineups. Current Rangers batters are slashing only .205/.305/.384 over 112 at-bats, while Javier was 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA against them in 2022.

Javier vs Perez Stats

The Rangers will counter with Martin Perez, who’s put together three consecutive quality starts. Perez has held the opposition to two runs or less in each of those outings, relying heavily on his defense for outs. The 32-year-old is averaging less than three strikeouts per start during that stretch, and has eclipsed three K’s in only four of his past 14 outings.

That strategy is fine against weaker opponents, but it hasn’t been a recipe for success versus Houston. Astros batters are hitting .297 lifetime against Perez over 192 at-bats, striking out at just a 15% clip.

Astros vs Rangers Predictions

The Houston bats enter Monday in strong form, slashing .272/.349/.460 over the past week. They’ve crossed the plate at least five times in six of their last eight outings, scoring seen or more times on three separate occasions.

The Astros have ripped off four wins in their past five games, taking two of three so far from Texas this weekend. They boast the fifth highest slugging percentage in baseball over the last two weeks, with both Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker doing the bulk of the damage.

Each have homered three times during that stretch, crossing the plate 13 and 12 times respectively. Tucker is a career .421 hitter against Perez, while Jose Altuve has smacked nine extra-base hits off the lefty in 57 at-bats.

As for the Rangers lineup, its one of the few that has outperformed Houston’s over the past two weeks. Texas boasts a .298 average, .488 slugging percentage and .852 OPS over their past 13 games. Four Ranger hitters were recently named American League All-Star starters, led by Marcus Semien.

The Rangers’ 6 All-Stars are the 2nd-most of any MLB club this year to only Atlanta (8). This year marks just the 3rd time in Rangers history for the club to have at least 6 All-Stars (8-2012, 6-2010). 5 position player selections this year match 2012 for most in team history.

— Texas Rangers PR (@TXRangersPR) July 2, 2023

Semien leads the team in WAR, while fellow infielders Corey Seager and Josh Jung, plus catcher Jonah Heim also got the nod as starters. Adolis Garcia meanwhile, the team leader in home runs and RBI, was left off the starting lineup, but cracked the squad as a reserve.

Rangers vs Astros 2023 H2H Results

No team in MLB averages more runs per contest than Texas, while the Rangers do their best work at home. Texas owns a slugging percentage that is .84 points higher in their own stadium, and an OPS that is .115 points better.

The over is 25-14-6 in Rangers home games this season, and Monday’s contest sets up as a high scoring affair as well. Both lineups are tearing the cover off the ball at the moment, while each starting pitcher has significant warts.

Pick: Over 9 (+100)