Astros vs Red Sox Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions

• The Houston Astros visit the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of the ALCS on Monday (October 18th, 8:07 pm ET)
• Houston will give the ball to Jose Urquidy, while Boston will counter with either Nick Pivetta or Eduardo Rodriguez
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Houston’s lineup gets all the headlines, but Boston proved in Game 2 its bats are no slouch. The Red Sox smacked a pair of grand slams and raced out to an early 9-0 lead over the Astros, en route to squaring the ALCS at a game apiece.

Boston became the first team in MLB history to hit two grand slams in one playoff game, and will look to take a 2-1 series lead as the scene shifts to Fenway Park for Game 3 on Monday (October 18th).

Astros vs Red Sox Game 3 Odds

Odds as of Oct. 17th at DraftKings.

The Red Sox and Astros opened with identical -110 moneylines for Game 3, in a contest that features a total of 9. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07 pm ET, with the forecast calling for clear skies and chilly 45 degree night time temperatures.

Probable Pitchers

The Astros’ starting rotation suffered another blow in Game 2, as Luis Garcia exited the game early with a knee injury. Houston is already without ace Lance McCullers Jr. for the duration of the ALCS due to forearm tightness, and were forced to use number five starter Jake Odorizzi in a long relief role on Saturday. That leaves only Jose Urquidy and Framber Valdez as fresh arms for the next couple games, and Urquidy will get the nod in Game 3.

When José Urquidy starts Monday night in Boston, it will be his first appearance in 15 days. He was available out of the bullpen in ALDS Game 4 but didn't pitch. Has been throwing bullpen sessions and such in the interim.

— Jake Kaplan (@jakemkaplan) October 16, 2021

The 26-year-old is fresh off a career season, setting personal bests in wins, WHIP, innings pitched and strikeouts, while holding enemy bats to three runs or less in 16 of 20 starts. Urquidy missed two months of the regular season with shoulder discomfort, but has looked healthy since returning in early September.

He owns a 2.81 ERA in eight career postseason appearances, including four starts, and was lights out in his only meeting with the Red Sox during the regular season. Urquidy threw 6 innings of three hit ball in May, surrendering a single run, while striking out nine.

Anyone worried about Jose Urquidy in a big game – don't forget he tossed 5 innings of scoreless baseball in game 4 of the 2019 World Series when the Astros were down 3-0 in the series. He's been the highest leverage situation imaginable and thrived. #ForTheH pic.twitter.com/DydjB1ipng

— SPACEMAN (@CopierCollin) October 14, 2021

Boston meanwhile, has yet to name a starter. Nick Pivetta and Eduardo Rodriguez are the likely candidates. Pivetta pitched in Games 1 and 3 of the ALDS, both times in a relief role. The 28-year-old surrendered three runs total over 8.2 innings, while striking out 11.

Looks like Alex Cora will get through these two games without using Nick Pivetta or Eduardo Rodriguez, leaving his options for Game 3 and 4 starters wide open at this point.

— Ian Browne (@IanMBrowne) October 17, 2021

Rodriguez on the other hand, lasted only 1.2 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS after coughing up two hits, two walks and two runs, but rebounded in the series finale. He pitched five solid innings, yielding just three hits and two runs in Boston’s 6-5 victory.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Of the two, Pivetta fared much better versus the Astros during the regular season. He allowed only three hits and two runs in his lone start, while Rodriguez was absolutely shelled. He surrendered 13 hits and 12 runs combined over two outings, lasting just 4.2 innings in each start.

Red Sox vs Astros Pick

With the scene shifting back to Boston, the Red Sox feel undervalued at -110 on the moneyline. The Red Sox are 2-0 at home in the postseason so far, and have much better splits at home than on the road.

EVERYBODY GET UP IT'S TIME TO SLAM NOW! pic.twitter.com/gsgJhge9f8

— Red Sox (@RedSox) October 16, 2021

Boston hit .281 during the regular season at Fenway (compared to .240 on the road), with a .481 slugging percentage and an .831 OPS. They’ve scored 39 runs in their past five games and while the matchup versus Urquidy is tough, it’s certainly beatable.

Also is the Red Sox favor is a tired Houston bullpen. Astro starters have pitched just 3.2 innings through two games, meaning the bullpen has already been on the hook for 15.1 innings of work.

Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-110)