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Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Predictions & Odds

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in MLB Baseball

Updated Oct 13, 2022 · 9:06 PM PDT

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola throwing a pitch
Oct 8, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during game two of the Wild Card series for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Braves hit the road to face the Phillies in Game 3 of the NLDS on Friday
  • Philadelphia is a -120 home favorite with Aaron Nola on the mound
  • Keep reading for the odds, preview, and Braves vs Phillies Game 3 prediction

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are currently tied 1-1 in the NLDS heading to the City of Brotherly Love on Friday for a pivotal Game 3. This is the first postseason contest at Citizens Bank Park since 2011. The first pitch is scheduled for 4:37 PM ET.

The Braves have yet to announce who will start for them, but it’s likely between rookie Spencer Strider and veteran Charlie Morton. The Phils meanwhile send Aaron Nola to the hill.

Braves vs Phillies Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Atlanta Braves +100 +1.5 (-210) Ov 7.5 (+100)
Philadelphia Phillies -120 -1.5 (+175) Un 7.5 (-120)

 

Odds as of October 13th at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to wager on Game 3.

Philadelphia heads home as a slight -120 betting favorite, while the game total is sitting at 7.5 with the under also slightly favored at -120.

 

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Atlanta vs Philadelphia Probable Pitchers

As previously mentioned, Brian Snitker is undecided on his Game 3 starting pitcher. He did say that Strider would pitch “at some point” on Friday though, whether it’s from the get-go or in relief. The youngster was phenomenal for the Braves this season, going 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA. The 23-year-old also struck out more than 30% of the hitters he faced.

As for Morton, he didn’t fare as well in 2022, posting a 4.34 ERA in 31 starts to go with a 9-6 record. The right-hander has allowed nine earned runs across his previous two outings, last taking the bump on October 2nd. There’s an argument for both guys to get a chance here, but we’ll see.

Nola’s regular season record of 11-13 doesn’t jump off the page, but the numbers at large were very good. He compiled a 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and struck out 235 in 205 innings for Philly while conceding only 28 walks.

The 29-year-old consistently pounds the strike zone and we saw just that in the Wild Card Series, throwing 6.2 frames of scoreless baseball against the Cardinals. Matchup-wise, Nola owns a 3.67 ERA against Atlanta this year in five starts.

Braves Even NLDS

Atlanta went into Wednesday’s Game 2 needing a win badly in order to avoid an 0-2 hole and needless to say, they made it happen. Kyle Wright threw an absolute gem, giving up just two hits and zero runs in six innings. In fact, the Braves staff allowed just three hits in total in the 3-0 victory.

At the dish, Atlanta got it done with fundamental baseball. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Travis D’Arnaud all had RBI singles. They did just enough to get to Phillies stud Zack Wheeler who enjoyed a good outing too, just not as stellar as Wright.

Phillies Will Be Fired up for Game 3

The first playoff home game in over a decade is surely going to fire up the Phillies, there is no question about it. But after a tremendous offensive performance in the series opener, Philadelphia was atrocious at the plate on Wednesday.

Sure, Wright was on point, but three hits in nine innings and no runs is simply not good enough. It really wasted a solid showing from Wheeler, who did his best to keep the Phils in the game. Morton is a guy they’ll love to face as he’s struggled against Philly this year, but Strider has carved up this lineup, owning an ERA under one.

ATL vs PHI – Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
10/12/22 Braves Phillies ATL, 3-0
10/11/22 Braves Phillies PHI, 7-6
09/25/22 Phillies Braves ATL, 8-7
09/24/22 Phillies Braves ATL, 6-3
09/23/22 Phillies Braves PHI, 9-1
09/22/22 Phillies Braves PHI, 1-0
09/18/22 Braves Phillies ATL, 5-2
09/17/22 Braves Phillies ATL, 4-3
09/16/22 Braves Phillies ATL, 7-2
08/03/22 Braves Phillies PHI, 3-1

Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Prediction

Whether Strider or Morton gets the call here, I’m liking the Phils. The atmosphere will be electrifying and I think that is going to help Philadelphia thrive. Especially behind Nola, expect them to get it done.

Pick: Phillies moneyline (-120)

 

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