Brewers vs Braves Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers
- The Atlanta Braves are home favorites over the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 3 of the National League Division Series on Friday afternoon
- The Brewers send Freddy Peralta (10-5, 2.81) to the mound to face Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58)
- The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction
Game 3 of the National League Division Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves shifts to Georgia with the series tied 1-1. First pitch is set for 1:07 pm ET Monday, at Truist Park.
Max Fried needed only 81 pitches in six innings while allowing no runs to completely stymie Milwaukee’s lineup. He and three relievers scattered six hits in a 3-0 Atlanta shutout win to even the NLDS. The Braves got a solo homer by Austin Riley and RBI base hits from Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies to provide the offense. Now, Ian Anderson and the Braves are favored Monday.
Brewers vs Braves Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | +105 | +1.5 (-200) | Over 7.5 (-105) |
| Atlanta Braves | -125 | -1.5 (+170) | Under 7.5 (-115) |
Odds as of October 10th at DraftKings.
Probable Pitchers
On the mound, Freddy Peralta (10-5, 2.81) gets the start for Milwaukee, while Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58) goes for Atlanta.
Peralta has been the overlooked stalwart of manager Craig Counsell’s starting staff this season. Fourteen of his 27 starts were quality ones in 2021, with the Brewers going 18-9 in his turns. However, as good as he’s been this season — which included being named to the All-Star team for the first time in his career — he’s only posted ten starts since the break. Even more concerning, only four of those outings were quality ones. Since the break, Peralta has gone 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA. An encouraging note: the Brew Crew has gone 7-3 over that timeframe.
Peralta vs Anderson Key Stats
| 10.-5 | Record | 9-5 |
| 2.81 | ERA | 3.58 |
| 2.72 | xERA | 4.30 |
| 0.97 | WHIP | 1.23 |
| 3.48 | SO/W | 2.34 |
Peralta has not pitched since September 26th, when he went 5.1 innings, allowing five hits, four earned runs and a walk while striking out five in an 8-4 victory over the Mets.
Tuesday was the 9th time this season Freddy Peralta pitched at least 6 innings and allowed 2 or fewer hits.
That's tied for the most such games in a single season in MLB history with 2019 Justin Verlander, who won the AL Cy Young Award.
h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/O2Uc8otLvg
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 15, 2021
Also of note, the right-hander picked up a 10-9 victory over these Braves on May 16th, going six innings, allowing two hits, no earned runs and only one walk while striking out eight. Peralta went 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 12 road starts this season. In 12 appearances (11 starts), he had a 4-2 record and 3.03 ERA.
As for Anderson, 10 of the 23-year-old’s 24 starts this season were quality starts and Atlanta was 13-11 in his outings. He was solid in the last month of the regular season, going 3-0 with a 4.47 ERA. Anderson tossed back-to-back quality outings in this final two turns over the Diamondbacks on the road and the Phillies at home.
Ian Anderson has made 14 career starts in September and October, including the 2020 postseason run.
He's posted a 2.64 ERA in those games. pic.twitter.com/nDdClWq5J8
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) October 1, 2021
He went six innings against the Brewers on May 15th, allowing two hits, an earned run and four walks while striking out four in a 5-1 victory over Milwaukee. Anderson was 5-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 11 starts at home in 2021. He was 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA in seven day game starts.
Home Field Advantage Shifts
Milwaukee managed those six hits against Atlanta pitching Saturday, but only got one runner to third base (Jace Peterson in the eighth inning) the whole game. Now, the Brewers — who have only scored two runs in the first two games of the series — will try to regain home-field advantage against a pitcher that had their number when Anderson faced them in May.
Former Padre Luis Urias — who had 23 homers in the regular season and a pair of hits Saturday — should have a big say in the outcome Monday.
luis urias .500 avg in the 2021 postseason
padres .000 avg in the 2021 postseason
makes you think
— #1 (handsome) padres fan (@suuuuhdudeeee) October 10, 2021
Anderson has owned all four probable Milwaukee batters he’ll face Monday though, with Kolten Wong, Avisail Garcia, Urias and Omar Narvaez going a combined 0-for-8 against him lifetime.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Brewers Batters | Batting Average vs Ian Anderson | Braves Batters | Batting Average vs Freddy Peralta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kolten Wong | .000 | Freddie Freeman | .222 |
| Avisail Garcia | .000 | Ozzie Albies | .143 |
| Luis Urias | .000 | Austin Riley | .500 |
| Omar Narvaez | .000 | Adam Duvall | .000 |
With Fried continuing his domination over the last two-plus months, Atlanta’s offense woke up just enough Saturday to get back in the series.
AUSTIN 3:16 SAYS BANG@austinriley1308 | #BattleATL pic.twitter.com/oK1UGIaz2j
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 9, 2021
No probable Brave bat Monday has taken Peralta deep. But both Freeman and Albies have a double off the Milwaukee starter, with the 2020 NL MVP driving in a run against him.
Braves vs Brewers Pick
It will be interesting to see how Milwaukee’s strategy of letting Peralta rest for the last two weeks of the regular season will play out in Game 3. Both Peralta and Anderson own victories this season against their respective opponent.
Runs have been hard to come by so far in this series, and that doesn’t figure to change much Monday. But, I like Atlanta’s chances a little better than Milwaukee’s in this spot. That has me riding the home favorites.
The Pick: Braves -125
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
