Cubs vs Blue Jays Picks & Odds (Aug. 11)

• Friday’s Cubs vs Blue Jays odds list Toronto as -162 moneyline favorites
•  Javier Assad (1-2, 3.35 ERA) toes the rubber for Chicago, while Toronto counters with Jose Berrios (9-7, 3.38 ERA)
• Check out the latest Cubs vs Blue Jays picks and odds below

After having their bats silenced in Cleveland over the course of four games earlier this week, the Blue Jays (65-52, 30-24 home) will look to break out of their mini-slump this weekend.

Toronto opens up a three-game set with the Cubs (59-56, 27-28 away) on Friday evening, and online sportsbooks are siding with the Blue Jays in the MLB odds.

Cubs vs Blue Jays Odds

Toronto is currently a -162 moneyline favorite, in a contest with a total of 9. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 pm ET at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON, and will be featured on Apple TV+.

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Odds as of August 10 at Caesars. Get a Caesars promo code to bet on CHC vs TOR this weekend. 

Chicago vs Toronto Probable Pitchers

The Blue Jays enter play with the ninth shortest price tag in the World Series odds. Currently sitting at 13 games above .500, you’d expect they’d have a comfortable lead in the Wild Card race, but that’s not the case. Toronto is occupying the AL’s third and final Wild Card spot, just 1.5 games up on the Mariners.

They’ll try to extend that lead on Friday, tasking Jose Berrios with the assignment of shutting down Chicago. Berrios is in excellent form, yielding two earned runs or less in seven of his past eight starts. He picked up the win last time out in Boston, allowing three runs and striking out six, and no team has touched him up for more than two runs other than the Red Sox since the middle of June.

José Berríos, Wicked Slurves. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/Zq55Qb1U2l

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 5, 2023

He posted a sparkling 1.84 ERA in July, and has drastically cut down on the amount of home runs he’s served up. Berrios has yielded only two homers in his last six outings, striking out six or more on four separate occasions.

The right-hander doesn’t have a ton of history with the Cubs regulars in the MLB starting lineups, but those he has faced have not fared well. Current Chicago batters own a dismal .218/.295/.218 lifetime slugging percentage against Berrios, with zero extra-base hits in 55 at-bats.

Assad vs Berrios Stats

The Cubs will counter with Javier Assad, who’s been battling control issues in his last two starts. He’s failed to make it out of the 4th inning in either outing, allowing a combined five walks. Atlanta tagged him for five hits, including a home run, in just 3.2 innings over the weekend, while the 26-year-old owns only one quality start in 10 major league attempts.

Opponents are slashing .242/.326/.407 off him this season, and there’s a good chance he doesn’t last long versus the mighty Toronto bats. That means the Blue Jays will likely see plenty of Chicago’s bullpen, which isn’t necessarily a good thing. Cubs relievers currently rank above league average in ERA and strand rate, and have pitched very well since the All-Star break. They’ve posted a 3.88 ERA during that stretch, stranding 79% of the runners on base.

Cubs vs Blue Jays Predictions

Toronto mustered only seven runs total over a four-game set with the Guardians this week, after tearing the cover off the ball versus Boston last weekend. Blue Jays hitters crossed the plate 25 times while sweeping the Red Sox on the road, clubbing seven home runs.

The team is still missing leading hitter Bo Bichette (knee), but is finally starting to get production out of George Springer. Toronto’s right fielder is hitting .500 over the last week, with a .750 slugging percentage. Springer is a much better hitter statistically at home than on the road, which increases his likelihood of continued success.

Rogers Centre is typically one of baseball’s most hitter friendly parks, ranking above average in home runs and extra-base hits yielded in 2023 per park factors. The Toronto lineup is a top-11 unit in slugging and OPS this season, ranking just behind the Cubs.

Chicago meanwhile, is in the middle of a playoff race of its own. They currently sit half a game out of the NL’s final Wild Card spot, after going 14-6 in their last 20 games. Offense has been the driving factor of their success, as they’ve been hotter than any team at the plate since the All-Star break.

Your reigning NL Player of the Month: @Cody_Bellinger! pic.twitter.com/gSyO8NJPyu

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 4, 2023

The Cubs have scored 32 more times than any other club since the break, averaging 6.6 runs per outing. They’re slashing .289/.364/.501 during that stretch, with three regulars including Cody Bellinger batting north of .360.

Bellinger has hit a team-high eight home runs over his last 26 games, while Chicago has pounded 43 dingers in that time frame. Yes, the matchup versus Berrios is tough, but we shouldn’t be surprised if they get to him early given how well they’re swinging the bats.

Pick: Over 5.5 Runs First 5 Innings (+100)