Diamondbacks vs Braves Picks, Odds & Props to Target (July 20)
- Atlanta is a -190 moneyline favorite in the Diamondbacks vs Braves odds on Thursday afternoon
- Zac Gallen (11-4, 3.14 ERA) takes the ball for Arizona, while Atlanta counters with Spencer Strider (11-3, 3.66 ERA)
- The latest Diamondbacks vs Braves predictions, odds and player-prop bets can be found below
If you’re a fan of pitchers duels you might want to clear your schedule for Thursday afternoon. That’s because there’s a dandy of a matchup on tap in Atlanta, as Spencer Strider and the Braves (61-32, 31-18 home) host Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks (53-42, 27-18 away).
Online sportsbooks are siding with Atlanta, which is hardly a surprise given their MLB-best 61 wins. They’ve pegged the Braves as heavy favorites in the MLB odds, as Atlanta looks to shake off its early second half struggles.
Diamondbacks vs Braves Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | +160 | +1.5 (-120) | O 9 (-110) |
| Atlanta Braves | -190 | -1.5 (+100) | U 9 (-110) |
The Braves are currently a -190 moneyline favorite, in a contest with a total of 9. First pitch is scheduled for 12:20 pm ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA, with clear skies and mid-90’s temperatures in the forecast.
SPORTSBOOK
Odds as of July 19 at Bet365. Claim a Bet365 bonus code to bet on Thursday’s MLB action.
Arizona vs Atlanta Probable Pitchers
Atlanta closed the first half with a loss in Tampa Bay, and then began the second half with three more defeats in four games. The lack of form hasn’t knocked them off their perch atop the World Series odds though, as they remain the favorite to win it all.
Strider’s performance this season has a lot to do with their incredible record, his last start notwithstanding. The NL Cy Young odds favorite was pummeled by the White Sox over the weekend, yielding eight hits and five runs over 6 innings.
It marked just the second time in five starts he’s allowed more than two earned runs, but the performance wasn’t a total wash thanks to 10 strikeouts. Strider is averaging double-digit K’s per outing over his last four starts, and boasts a career-best 14.3 K/9 rate so far.
Spencer Strider has struck out 341 batters in 39 career MLB starts and if that sounds like a hell of a lot it's because it is!
No other pitcher in MLB history has had more Ks in their first 39 starts. pic.twitter.com/GfYF6wQYgZ
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) July 16, 2023
Strider doesn’t have a ton of history with the Arizona regulars in the MLB starting lineups, but those he has faced have not fared well. He’s held current D-Backs hitters to a .174 average, while striking them out at a 35% clip.
Gallen vs Strider Stats
| 11-4 | Record | 11-3 |
| 3.14 | ERA | 3.66 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| .230 | OBA | .213 |
| 5.0 | SO/W Ratio | 5.2 |
Gallen meanwhile, is fresh off a defeat of his own, at the hands of the Blue Jays. The right-hander gave the Diamondbacks 5 innings of three run ball on Saturday, but got little offensive support in a 5-2 loss. Prior to that he was excellent in Pittsburgh before the All-Star Break, and had allowed one run or less in three of four starts.
He doesn’t have the same type of strikeout ceiling as Strider, but that’s not to say there’s no upside there. He’s reached 10+ K’s multiple times this season, including a 12 strikeout performance earlier this month.
The issue with Gallen is that he seems to get hit hard more often than he should. He’s surrendered at least four runs on five separate occasions, and struggled in his lone appearance this season against the Braves. Atlanta tagged him for nine hits and a homer in that outing, and some of their top hitters have had plenty of success against him.
Diamondbacks vs Braves Predictions
NL MVP odds leader Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley are all hitting north of .330 against Gallen. Over the last month, the Braves lead MLB in slugging and home runs, while ranking second in scoring. They began this series by crossing the plate 13 times against Arizona, fueled by two home runs and 7 RBI from Riley.
Austin Riley is the 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 @Braves third baseman with 7+ RBI in a single game since RBI became an official stat in 1920 📊 pic.twitter.com/ioRQS77M3D
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) July 19, 2023
Atlanta had crossed the plate 26 times in their last three meetings with the D-Backs entering Wednesday, while the team is slashing .303/.371/.542 versus them this season. The fact that they hit Gallen hard earlier this year is just a feather in their cap, as virtually no pitcher has been able to slow down this juggernaut lineup all season.
As for the Diamondbacks, don’t be fooled by their 16-run outburst on Monday. They teed off on Bryce Elder who’s been a punching bag lately, and a bunch of second tier Atlanta relievers. It will be a different story against Strider.
Diamondbacks vs Braves 2023 H2H Results
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 18 | Diamondbacks | Braves | ARI, 16-13 |
| June 4 | Braves | Diamondbacks | ATL, 8-5 |
| June 3 | Braves | Diamondbacks | ATL, 5-2 |
| June 2 | Braves | Diamondbacks | ARI, 3-2 |
Arizona entered this series in abysmal offensive form. They ranked 29th in slugging and dead last in scoring for the month. They were averaging only 2.4 runs per outing, with a .206/.293/.329 slash line. They’d dropped eight of 10 contests, and had just two regulars (Alek Thomas and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) slugging north of .360 during that stretch.
That’s the type of performance we should expect to see on Thursday against one of baseball’s best arms. Not the outlier we witnessed on Monday.
Diamondbacks vs Braves Picks:
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+100)
- Spencer Strider Over 8.5 Ks (+100)
- Ozzie Albies 2+ Total Bases (+105)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
