Diamondbacks vs Mariners Odds and Picks (Sep. 10)

• The Seattle Mariners are -155 favorites over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday (September 10th, 10:10 pm ET)
• Seattle will give the ball to Marco Gonzales (7-5, 4.25 ERA), while Arizona will counter with Madison Bumgarner (7-9, 4.52 ERA)
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Seattle’s pursuit of the playoffs continues on Friday (September 10th) at home against Arizona. The Mariners, winners of six of their past eight, enter play two games back of Boston for the AL’s final Wild Card berth.

These two teams met last weekend for a three-game set in the Desert, and Seattle emerged victorious in each outing, outscoring the D-Backs 24-14.

Diamondbacks vs Mariners Odds

Odds as of  September 9th at DraftKings.

The Mariners opened up as -155 moneyline favorites, in a game that features a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 pm ET inside T-Mobile Park in Seattle, and will feature a pair of starters fresh off shaky outings.

Probable Pitchers

Marco Gonzales will get the ball for the M’s, after allowing five runs to Arizona’s bottom-eight offense last time out. The southpaw was tagged for eight hits and two home runs, marking the first time in over two months he’s surrendered more than three runs in a start.

Tale of the tape for Marco Gonzales in the first inning:
31 pitches
Four runs
Three hits
One walk
Hit two batters

— Corey Brock (@CoreyBrockMLB) September 5, 2021

Prior to that outing, Gonzales was in the midst of his best stretch of the season. He’d allowed two or fewer runs in seven of eight starts, posting three shutout performances along the way.

Bumgarner vs Gonzales

Despite the success, the numbers suggest he’d been exceeding expectations. Gonzales owns a 5.12 xFIP in 2021, and is surrendering 1.92 home runs per 9 innings. His K/9 rate is an underwhelming 6.81, while his strand rate is 82.4%, a full nine points higher than his career average.

The Diamondbacks will counter with Madison Bumgarner, who’s pitched quite poorly for the better half of two seasons since coming over from San Francisco.

Madison Bumgarner looked like his old self from mid-July to mid-August, but has been rocked in each of his last three starts. And his much improved control this season has gone out the window during this stretch. #FantasyBaseball #Diamondbacks

— RotoRob (@RotoRob) September 7, 2021

The former Wold Series hero has given up at least four runs in three straight starts, including last Friday against Seattle. Bumgarner was tagged for five hits and five runs by the Mariners, including two homers. His 1.31 HR/9 rate is the third highest mark of his career, while his 4.91 xFIP is the second worst mark he’s ever posted.

He has a WAR below 1.0 in 31 starts for Arizona, and has yielded hard contact to 37.5% of the batters he’s faced in 2021.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Despite the recent struggles of Bumgarner, and the shaky start by Gonzales last week, there’s still reason to be bullish on the under for this game.

Diamondbacks vs Mariners Pick

For starters, Seattle has scored more than four runs in just two of its past 14 home games. T-Mobile Park is the sixth least friendly park for hitters, and produces the lowest BABIP of any MLB stadium.

Both of these teams rank bottom nine in runs, and bottom-five in slugging and OPS, while no team has a lower batting average than the Mariners.

The Diamondbacks meanwhile, have produced significantly fewer runs on the road compared to at home, and over the past seven days have on base percentage of only .266. I’m willing to bet last week’s outburst versus Gonzales was an outlier, and this game is a low scoring affair.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)