Dodgers vs Phillies Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (August 12)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers are -170 road favorites over the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday (August 12th, 1:05 pm ET)
- Julio Urias (13-3, 3.41 ERA) will start for LA, while Philly will counter with Ranger Suarez (5-3, 0.98 ERA)
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ six-game road trip continues in Philadelphia on Thursday (August 12th), with the series finale of their three-game set with the Phillies. LA enters play winners of four straight, and is in hot pursuit of San Francisco for the NL West lead.
The Phillies meanwhile, have dropped back-to-back games, after ripping off an eight-game win streak to start the month.
Dodgers vs Phillies Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Dodgers | -170 | -1.5 (-115) | O 9.5 (+100) |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +150 | +1.5 (-105) | U 9.5 (-120) |
Odds as of August 11th at DraftKings.
Los Angeles opened up as a -170 road favorite, in a game that features a total of 9.5. The Dodgers are 33-25 away from home this season, and will send Julio Urias to the mound, who’s undefeated in his last eight starts.
Probable Pitchers
Urias last pitched on Saturday, but didn’t factor into the decision versus the Angels. He held them to two runs over 5 innings, while striking out five. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in four straight starts, and seven of his past eight outings, and fared quite well in his only start of 2021 against Philadelphia.
Lowest ERA in MLB since July 1st, min. 30 IP:
1. Jameson Taillon 1.45
2. Walker Buehler 1.64
3. Julio Urias 1.98
4. Tylor Megill 2.03
5. Luis Castillo 2.06— New York Yankees Stats (@nyyankeesstats) August 5, 2021
Urias surrendered just two runs over 5.2 innings, while striking out five, but once again didn’t factor into the decision. He leads all Dodger pitchers in wins (13) and ranks second on the club in innings pitched and strikeouts.
Urias vs Suarez
| 13-3 | Record | 5-3 |
| 3.41 | ERA | 0.98 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 0.85 |
| .233 | OBA | .136 |
| 5.1 | SO/W Ratio | 2.6 |
A matchup versus the Phillies is no picnic, as they rank sixth in the NL in runs per game, and fifth in OPS+, and fare much better against southpaws. Philadelphia has a higher average, OBP and slugging percentage versus lefties than righties, and will likely throw six to seven right-handed batters at Urias on Thursday.
The Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, who will be making just his sixth career start. The lefty has worked primarily as a reliever over the past three seasons, and has lasted three innings or less in each of his past two starts, despite not surrendering a run in either. Limiting opposing lineups is nothing new to Suarez, who boasts a tidy 0.98 ERA, and 0.85 WHIP.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Dodgers Batters | Batting Average vs Suarez | Phillies Batters | Batting Average vs Urias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | .000 | Alec Bohm | .667 |
| AJ Pollock | .000 | Bryce Harper | .111 |
| Will Smith | .000 | Odubel Herrera | .200 |
| Justin Turner | .500 | Andrew Knapp | .000 |
| Trea Turner | .500 | Andrew McCutchen | .286 |
| Max Muncy | .000 | J.T. Realmuto | .000 |
| Chris Taylor | .000 | Jean Segura | .333 |
It’s possible he gets stretched out a bit further on Thursday, providing he can keep LA’s juggernaut offense at bay. The Dodgers lead the NL in runs per game, OBP and OPS+, and have scored at least seven runs in 35% of their games since the All-Star break.
Smooth like butter, pull you in like no other. pic.twitter.com/GlxknGumhQ
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 11, 2021
They will once again be without Mookie Betts due to a hip injury, but their lineup is loaded from top-to-bottom. Six other players are on pace for between 20-30 home runs, while Max Muncy, AJ Pollock, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, and Trea Turner all have an OPS of .862 or higher.
Dodgers vs Phillies Pick
LA has owned Philadelphia this year, posting a 4-1 record, while only one of the five games has eclipsed eight runs. With Urias on the mound, offense should be tough to come by for Philly, as his starts have a strong tendency to fall under the total. Eight of his last 11 outings have failed to produce a total north of nine, while the Phillies have seen each of their past five games go under.
On the other side of the diamond, Suarez has been virtually unhittable when he’s been out there (as evident by his 3.42 xFIP), and the Dodgers have a lower OBP and slugging percentage versus southpaws.
It’s never comfortable to take an under in an LA contest, but this total is inflated due to the teams involved, and the public’s propensity to wager on overs.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
