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Mets vs Padres NL Wild Card Odds, Predictions & Schedule

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in MLB Baseball

Updated Oct 5, 2022 · 7:15 PM PDT

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso sliding into home
Oct 4, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) scores ahead of the tag by Washington Nationals catcher Tres Barrera (38) on a sacrifice fly by Mets left fielder Mark Canha (not pictured) during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Mets and Padres meet in the Wild Card series with a spot in the NLDS on the line
  • New York is a -170 favorite in this best-of-three series
  • Who is the best bet to advance? Read on for the Mets vs Padres series odds, prediction, and schedule

With the regular season officially done, we now look ahead to the 2022 playoffs. In one of the National League Wild Card matchups, the New York Mets will play host to the San Diego Padres. This series is a best of three, with all games at Citi Field. It will run from Friday-Sunday, depending on if a third game is necessary or not. Continue reading for our Mets vs Padres series prediction.

Mets vs Padres NL Wild Card Odds

Team Odds
New York Mets -170
San Diego Padres +150

Odds as of October 5th at Barstool Sportsbook. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code. 

The Mets are a -170 moneyline favorite to win this NLWC for an implied probability of 62.9% and have World Series odds as short as +700. The Padres meanwhile, sit at +150 odds and have a 42% chance of advancing.

The season series went the way of San Diego, winning four of six meetings.

 

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New York vs San Diego Team Stats

The Mets will be disappointed to even be in this spot in the first place after leading the NL East for most of the year until the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves got hot and surpassed them. Nonetheless, there is certainly a buzz around Flushing as New York returns to the postseason for the first time since 2016.

Buck Showalter’s squad finished the campaign with a 101-61 record, becoming just one of four teams to record triple-digits in wins. On both sides of the ball, the Mets are extremely solid. At the dish, they ranked sixth in runs, second in average, third in hits, and second in OBP.  Pete Alonso is the most dangerous bat that San Diego must be aware of as he hit .271 with 40 homers in 22′. Also, the slugger went 7 for 14 against the Padres this season. Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Canha, among others, are no pushovers either and all swing it well.

On the mound, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are the stars of the rotation, helping the staff compile a 3.58 ERA. Scherzer is expected to start be in starter in the Mets’ Game 1 MLB lineup, but there is a possibility that Showalter holds out deGrom for the NLDS. We’ll see if that comes back to haunt NY. Of course, Edwin Diaz is also one of the best closers in the game.

The Padres closed out their campaign with an 89-73 record. Not bad by any means, but they finished a whole 22 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. San Diego went out and had arguably the most historic trade deadline ever to hopefully take them to World Series heights, but Juan Soto, the focal point of the blockbuster move, has struggled immensely at Petco. Since coming over, he’s batting just .240 with six homers in 51 games. On a more positive note, Soto tends to rake at Citi Field and against the Mets in general, slashing .303 lifetime with 16 long balls in 68 contests.

The Padres offense as a whole was respectable during the year, scoring 4.4 runs per outing, which ranked 11th in the NL. Manny Machado led the way with a .296 average. He also cranked 32 bombs. The staff is headlined by Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who were both reliable this season.

Darvish is likely to get the call in the series opener after going 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in 30 starts. Musgrove will possibly follow in Game 2. Darvish owns an ERA under one vs. New York in 2022, while Musgrove was lit up in his lone appearance.

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Mets vs Padres Series Prediction

To win over 100 games and not finish first in your division is a travesty. The Mets are a very good ball club and have all the weapons to make a deep run in these playoffs. If Juan Soto gets hot and continues to mash against New York, it might go the full three games. But, I do ultimately think the Mets move on to face the Dodgers.

Pick: Mets (-170)

 

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