Morton, Rays Are +133 Underdogs vs Greinke, Astros in ALDS Game 3 – Picks & Odds
- The Tampa Bay Rays have scored just three runs in the first two games of the ALDS vs Houston
- The Astros had 10 hits and eight runs in 9.0 innings against Charlie Morton this season
- Zack Greinke has a career 1.12 WHIP in the playoffs
The Tampa Bay Rays were muzzled in Game 1 but came close to an epic comeback in Game 2. However, anyway you slice it, they’re now back home for Game 3, down 0-2 in the American League Division Series. With Charlie Morton on the mound, can they pull this out and force a Game 4?
Astros vs Rays Game 3 Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | -1.5 (+113) | -143 | Over 7.5 (-120) |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +1.5 (-133) | +133 | Under 7.5 (-100) |
*Odds taken 10/06/19
Rays Fall Short In Game 2
The Rays weren’t really in Game 2 by any stretch of the imagination. Gerrit Cole shut them down through 7.2 innings of work as he gave up just four hits and a walk while striking out 15 batters. They rallied in the ninth inning to some extent, loading the bases and scoring a run, but that’s as close as they got.
Overall, other than getting to Houston closer Roberto Osuna, there weren’t many positives for this team. They’ve struggled against the Astros’ starters, the Astros bats have done really well against the best pitchers Tampa has to offer (10 hits in Game 2); the Rays defense also had an error for a second straight game.
The other concern here is that – for a second straight game – the Rays bullpen had to do a ton of work. Blake Snell lasted just 3.1 innings, which means the bullpen had to soak up 4.2 innings. The good news is they have a day off on Sunday but the Rays need a good outing from Charlie Morton on Monday to avoid stringing out their pen.
Astros Favored In Tampa Bay
The Rays vs Astros Game 3 odds show that the Astros are a small favorite. Of course, with the series shifting back to Tampa Bay and the Rays throwing their first starter who didn’t spend most of the year injured, this should be a fairer fight. Also, Zack Greinke, while still good, is the weakest of the three starters the Rays have seen.
Morton is a former member of the Astros, so they are familiar with him. They faced him twice this season and knocked him around for 10 hits and eight runs in just 9.0 innings of work. They batted .303 against him. Morton has been so-so in the playoffs, posting a 3.96 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his career in the postseason.
On the flip side, Greinke also hasn’t been great in the playoffs as he has a career 4.03 ERA in 11 playoff starts. He has a respectable 1.12 WHIP in those games and it’s worth noting he’s mostly played for weaker teams. When he was with the Dodgers, his WHIP in his four outings was between 0.57 and 0.88.
He did face Tampa Bay once this season and they clubbed him hard with six hits (two home runs) and five earned runs in 5.2 innings of work.
What’s The Best Bet?
I’m looking for an over in this game. We still have a relatively low total of 7.5 but there’s no Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole on the mound. Morton and Greinke are a cut below. Add in the fact that the Rays bullpen has already worked a lot and I think we get lots of runs in this game. Take the over.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
