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Sportsbooks Split on Mets’ 2020 World Series Odds; NYM Range from +1400 to +2500

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in MLB Baseball

Nov 1, 2019 · 1:43 PM PDT

Pete Alonso at the plate for the NY Mets.
Pete Alonso of the Mets' was the odds-on favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year short weeks ago, but is now third behind Atlanta's Mike Soroka and San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. Photo by slgckgc (flickr).
  • New York Mets finished 86-76 in 2019 and were three wins back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the second National League wild card
  • Team went 46-26 after the All-Star break, but couldn’t recover from a 40-50 start to the season
  • How will new manager Carlos Beltran deal with his first season as a skipper?

The New York Mets were one of the hottest teams in the National League over the second half of the season, going on a 46-26 run after the All-Star break and finishing just three wins shy of the second wild card.

As a result, their 2020 World Series odds are pegged at +2500, joint level with the Chicago Cubs in the National League, and ahead of teams like the Milwaukee Brewers, who edged the Mets for that final wild card.

So, what are the Mets true chances in a championship chase next year?

2020 World Series Odds for National League Teams

Team Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers +800
Atlanta Braves +1200
Washington Nationals +1500
Philadelphia Phillies +2000
St. Louis Cardinals +2200
Chicago Cubs +2500
New York Mets +2500
Milwaukee Brewers +3000
Cincinnati Reds +5000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6600
San Diego Padres +6600
San Francisco Giants +10000
Colorado Rockies +12500
Pittsburgh Pirates +20000
Miami Marlins +100000

Odds taken November 1st

Beltran Era Begins

Reports on Friday suggest that former star outfielder Carlos Beltran will succeed Mickey Callaway as New York’s manager. Though Beltran has spent the past two seasons as special adviser to New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, and was apparently very well regarded in the Yankees’ clubhouse, he has never managed at the major-league level.

Though it will be an advantage to have experience of the New York market as a player for both the Yankees and Mets, it remains to be seen what Beltran can do now that the Mets hot seat is officially his.

Something to Build On

Any review that Beltran does of the 2019 Mets would instantly point to the breakout seasons posted by National League Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso, and sophomore second baseman Jeff McNeil.

However, it seems unlikely that Alonso will be able to replicate his rookie-record 53 home run-season in 2020, even if that MLB season is as homer happy as 2019 has been.

There may be no better example of the long odds of a repeat that across town at Yankee Stadium, where Aaron Judge has posted back-to-back 27-home run years in injury-marred campaigns following his 52 home run rookie season three years ago.

And in the case of McNeil, his All-Star 2019 season came at the ripe old age of 27, so it doesn’t necessarily lend itself to the idea that there’s a whole lot more upside there.

Free Agent Frenzy

The Mets have eights players potentially entering free agency this winter. While some, such as Todd Frazier and Rajai Davis, almost certainly won’t be back, a key decision hinges on right-hander Zack Wheeler.

Wheeler went 11-8 with a 3.96 ERA in 31 starts this year, but has been a consistent presence on the mound for the Mets ever since he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015.

The Mets will almost certainly give him a qualifying offer, but whether he accepts it or not is another thing entirely. If Wheeler leaves he will need replacing in what has proven itself to be a strong rotation with the likes of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Marcus Stroman.

Bullpen Blowout

The Mets bullpen posted a 4.95 ERA in 2019, good for just 25th in the major leagues. While much of that can be attributed to Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia, who both struggled with 5.59 and 5.70 ERAs, respectively, they will both be back.

But if it hopes to contend, New York needs to add an arm or two here to improve a bullpen that blew 27 saves in 2019, tied for ninth most in MLB.

That shaky bullpen may be one reason why New York was 24-23 in one-run games this season. The good news for Mets fans there is that there will likely be little regression to the mean for a team that was basically .500 in those games, unlike, say, the Atlanta Braves, who posted a remarkable 28-16 record in one-run contests.

Running On Empty?

However, the Mets will need to improve their run differential in 2020 to have any shot at the World Series. At just +54, the Mets differential was only good enough to finish 14th overall in MLB.

Of the 10 teams that made the postseason this year, nine had a run differential of +100 or more. The only team to post a +100-plus run differential and not make it was the Cleveland Indians. Conversely, Milwaukee squeaked in to the last wild card in the National League with a run differential of just +3.

So while it is not essential, it certainly helps.

Pick: If the Mets make a splash in free agency, they would represent good value at +2500. However, the roster as it currently stands isn’t resilient enough to truly contend in a tight NL East race.

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