Tanaka, Yankees -180 Favorites Over Dobnak, Twins in ALDS Game 2 – Picks & Odds
- The New York Yankees are -180 favorites to take a 2-0 lead over the Minnesota Twins in their American League Divisional Series
- The Yankees beat the Twins 10-4 in Game 1 of the set
- Read our game preview, analysis and prediction below
Masahiro Tanaka spent last fall pitching in the American League playoffs. Randy Dobnak spent last fall driving an Uber.
The opposing starting pitchers in Game 2 of the ALDS between the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins are almost as polar opposites as the Yankees and Twins are in postseason play.
In the MLB playoffs, Tanaka is the anti-Twins. He’s a success story.
The Yankees righthander might not own an overwhelming win-loss record – he’s just 3-2 in the postseason – but the remainder of his playoff numbers are impressive.
Tanaka shows a 1.50 ERA. He’s checking opponents on a .162 batting average, an 0.800 WHIP and allowed just three home runs in 30 innings pitched.
Oddsmakers lists the Bronx Bombers as -180 favorites in the Twins vs Yankees Game 2 odds to grab a 2-0 stranglehold on this best-of-five series.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Game 1 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | +155 | +1.5 (-125) | Over 9.5 (+105) |
| New York Yankees | -180 | -1.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-125) |
*Odds taken 10/05/19.
The Yankees were 10-4 winners in Game 1.
Yankees are Twin Killers
The Twins are setting MLB playoff records all over the place. But they’re not the kind of marks that will be highlighted in next season’s media guide.
Minnesota has lost 14 consecutive playoff games. That’s an MLB record. The Twins have lost 10 in a row to the Yankees. That’s a record. New York’s .875 postseason winning percentage against Minnesota (14-2) is second only to the .900 success rate the St. Louis Cardinals (9-1) own over the San Diego Padres.
The Yankees' .875 win pct (14-2) vs MIN in the playoffs is the 2nd-highest win pct by any team against a single opponent in postseason history (min 10 games).
The Cardinals have a .900 win pct vs SD in the playoffs (9-1).
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 5, 2019
Oddly enough, the Twins have lost all 10 of those games while scoring the first run in every game. That’s a major-league mark as well. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it shattered the previous standard established by the 1921-23 Yankees, who lost eight in a row to the New York Giants while taking the lead in each game.
Tanaka a Homer
Tanaka, 30, finished 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.242 WHIP. But he was a completely different pitcher at Yankeee Stadium than the Tanaka who took the mound on the road.
Why has Masahiro Tanaka been better at home than on the road? He thinks it’s because he feeds off the Yankee Stadium crowds. pic.twitter.com/IP98lFZlB5
— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) October 4, 2019
His home ERA was 3.10, in comparison to 6.05 on the road. He struck out 85 in 98.2 innings on the hill at Yankee Stadium. Elsewhere, Tanaka fanned 63 in 83.1 innings pitched. That works out to 0.861 strikeouts per nine innings at home, and 0.756 on the road.
Dobnak a Unicorn
Two years ago, perhaps appropriately, Twins Game 2 starter Dobnak, 24, was a unicorn. A Utica Unicon, pitching in the United Shore Professional Baseball League, an independent pro league in the Detroit suburbs.
He spent the offseason driving an Uber, and began this season with Fort Myers of the class-A Florida State League. Called up to the Twins on August 27th, Dobnak is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. He’s only allowed one home run in 28.1 innings.
Baseball game today
— Randy Dobnak (@Dobnak_) October 4, 2019
It was Dobnak’s 52.9% ground-ball rate that encouraged Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to go with him in Game 2 over 15-game winner Jake Odorizzi. The Yankees clouted 306 home runs this season, second only to the Twins (307). Odorizzi owns a 35% ground ball rate.
Why the Yankees Will Win
The Twins are a fastball-hitting team. Tanaka is a breaking-ball pitcher. His splitter, his out pitch, has improved significantly since he altered his grip to adjust for what he says is a harder baseball this season.
The Yankees haven’t seen Dobnak and his funky delivery yet. That could help him. But New York’s bullpen is dominant. That made the difference in Game 1, and it will again today.
Pick: New York Yankees (-180).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
