UFC Vegas 40 Odds, Picks and Betting Preview – Ladd vs Dumont
- Aspen Ladd steps up on a weeks’ notice to battle Norma Dumont in the main event
- Andrei Arlovski returns in the co-main event
- See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC Vegas 40 main card, below
The UFC remains at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 40 on Saturday, October 16. In the main event, Aspen Ladd moves up to featherweight to face Norma Dumont on short notice after Holly Holm was forced out of the bout. Ladd is a slight -150 favorite while Dumont is a +130 underdog.
UFC Vegas 40 main card airs live on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. EST. The table below shows odds for the main card at DraftKings followed by best bets.
Make sure to check out the latest sportsbook promos before placing your bets for UFC Vegas 40.
UFC Vegas 40 Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aspen Ladd | -150 |
| Norma Dumont | +130 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Andrei Arlovski | -115 |
| Carlos Felipe | -105 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Jim Miller | -190 |
| Erick Gonzalez | +160 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Manon Fiorot | -220 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | +180 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Julian Marquez | -225 |
| Jordan Wright | +180 |
Odds as of October 11th at DraftKings.
How Will Ladd Do At Featherweight?
Aspen Ladd is currently the third-ranked bantamweight but she has not fought since December of 2019. She had knee surgery and then was set to return in July against Macy Chiasson, but her opponent was forced out of the fight. Then, just two weeks ago at UFC Vegas 38, Ladd had a scary weight cut and missed weight and the fight was pulled but she now will move up a weight class to face Norma Dumont who is a relative unknown for many MMA fans.
Ladd & Dumont Recent Fights
| Yana Kuntiskaya, win by TKO | Fight 1 | Felicia Spencer, win by decision |
| Germaine de Randamie, loss by KO | Fight 2 | Ashlee Evans-Smith, win by decision |
| Sijara Eubanks, win by decision | Fight 3 | Megan Anderson, loss by KO |
| Tonya Evinger, win by TKO | Fight 4 | Mariana Morais, win by decision |
When Dumont made her UFC debut in February of 2020, not many people knew much about her as she hadn’t fought since 2018 and was starched by Megan Anderson and knocked out in the first round. However, she then tried to move down to bantamweight and missed weight for her win over Evans-Smith, but her standout performance was her last fight where she beat Felicia Spencer by decision and now could be a win away from fighting for UFC gold at featherweight.
This is a fascinating matchup due to the fact we are still learning about Dumont, while Ladd is the known commodity but there are a ton of questions about her. How the back-to-back weight cuts will impact her is a major question, along with how she will fare at featherweight and whether or not either of them has the cardio to go 25 minutes.
Ladd & Dumont Stats
| 26 | Age | 31 |
| 5’6″ | Height | 5’7″ |
| 66″ | Reach | 67″ |
| 3 | UFC Finishes | 0 |
Both Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont have grinding styles where they look to take their opponents down and beat them up on the ground. Who will be able to implement that game plan will likely decide the winner of this fight.
Early on, I do expect them to strike with one another and get a feel for each other. Midway through the first round, I do expect you will see Ladd go for a takedown and will get it as I do think she is the better wrestler and will be stronger in this fight. Once on the ground, Ladd should be able to land vicious ground and pound, and eventually, in the second or third round, she’ll find the TKO finish on the ground.
Pick: Aspen Ladd (-150)
Does Arlovski Continue To Turn Back The Clock?
Andrei Arlovski has been fighting as a pro-MMA fighter since 1999 and will fight Carlos Felipe on Saturday who was born in 1995. From 2016 to 2017, many had written Arlovski off as he was on a five-fight losing streak and then again in 2018-2019 when he was winless in four fights. However, he has had success as of late as he’s 3-1 in his last four and now gets another up and comer in Carlos Felipe.
Arlovski & Felipe Recent Fights
| Chase Sherman, win by decision | Fight 1 | Jake Collier, win by decision |
| Tom Aspinall, loss by submission | Fight 2 | Justin Tafa, win by decision |
| Tanner Boser, win by decision | Fight 3 | Yorgan de Castro, win by decision |
| Philipe Lins, win by decision | Fight 4 | Sergey Spivak, loss by decision |
This fight should be a kickboxing fight as both Arlovski and Felipe like to box and keep it standing. The Brazilian in Felipe also trash-talks while he is fighting and I do expect him to land the harder shots and just out-volume Arlovski. As of late, the veteran in Arlovski has not thrown enough and that will hurt him here as Felipe will do enough to get the decision win.
Pick: Carlos Felipe (-105)
Other UFC Vegas 40 Picks:
- Jim Miller (-180): Miller should be able to take the fight down and get a submission win in the first round to get back into the win column.
- Manon Fiorot (-220): Fiorot looks legit and I expect her to piece up Silva and earn a third-round TKO win.
- Julian Marquez (-225): To me, this is a mismatch and Marquez will land a big shot early and KO Wright in the first round.
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.
