Anthony Davis Shortens to +850 in MVP Odds; Can He Return to the Top Three Contenders?

• Anthony Davis had MVP-caliber numbers in October but they’ve since dipped in November.
• James Harden is averaging 37.9 points per game, which is the most by any player since 1963.
• Luka Doncic is averaging 30.1 points per game with 10.0 rebounds and 9.5 assists.

The Los Angeles Lakers were hoping to get an MVP-caliber player when they acquired Anthony Davis in the offseason and he’s been as advertised. Has he been good enough to win the MVP, though?

That might be a bit of a stretch as NBA MVP odds are just +850, behind teammate LeBron James as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic and James Harden.

Should you bet on “The Brow” at his current price?

2019-20 NBA MVP Odds

Odds taken on November 27th

Davis’ Odds Have Bounced Around

Davis’ odds have been a bit of a roller-coaster ride this season. He was in the neighborhood of +900 in the summer but started to consistently shorten as the season approached. He was at +730 on September 30th and then at +480 on October 21st. While he got as low as +400, the odds have gone in the other direction since.

Part of the problem for Davis is that he’s cooled off a bit recently. He averaged 28.8 points per game with 12.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 steal into his first two games in November but he’s tapered off ever since.

Over his last 10 games, he’s down to 24.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.9 blocks.

Of course, those are still fantastic numbers, but the challenge is that those are no longer MVP-caliber numbers. There are other players in the league that would outshine him if those were his final stats on the season.

How Bad is the Shoulder Injury?

We continue to hear about Davis’ shoulder and how much of an issue it could be, but as of right now, he seems to be powering through it. Davis is constantly either questionable or probable, given the day, but he hasn’t really missed any significant time with it.

The concern here is that it’s his right shoulder. Might this be something that gets worse as the season goes? It’s something those who are betting this prop will have to consider. At the same time, if you look at his minutes, they’re actually up in November (35.3 minutes player per game) over October (33.3), so maybe it’s not a big issue.

What’s the Best Bet?

Davis has had some really impressive games where he looks like the league MVP but he’s not likely to keep it going through the span of a season.

We’ve already seen how his numbers have dipped a little bit month-over-month, pulling him from the ranks of MVP to just really, really good. I think this is where he hangs out.

The other issue working against him is that he’s on a team with LeBron James, who is also having an MVP-caliber season. James is averaging 25.6 points per game with 7.4 rebounds and a career-best 11.0 assists per game. He leads the league in assists per game and is currently edging Davis in PER, so it would be tough to go with Davis over James.

Beyond all of that, there are also better candidates for MVP on other teams. Houston’s James Harden is averaging an incredible 37.9 points per game, which would be fourth-best all-time and the best mark since 1963.

Dallas’ Luka Doncic also has a fantastic case for MVP right now as he’s scoring 30.1 points per game while adding 10.0 rebounds and 9.5 assists. If he’s at or near a triple-double with his averages, that will easily beat Davis’ hand. And don’t forget about Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo. The reigning MVP is putting together another MVP-caliber season.

Add it all up and I don’t see Davis being a good bet in this spot. He’s one of the best players in the NBA and a key member of a Los Angeles Lakers team that looks ready to make a run for the NBA championship. However, he’s not a good bet to with the MVP award.