NBA Thursday Betting Preview: Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks

There aren’t many teams that can lose a two-time MVP and barely miss a beat. Then again, there aren’t many teams that boast as much star power as the Warriors. Golden State has rattled off three straight victories and has looked like the best team in the NBA since losing Steph Curry to a sprained ankle on December 4th.

The key to the Warriors’ perfect play has been the performance of Kevin Durant, who was named Western Conference Player of the Week after averaging 30 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists. KD insists the team misses Curry, but that hasn’t been reflected in the standings.

“Obviously not having Steph the way he shoots the three, the way he penetrates, the way he just creates for everybody, not having that on the floor is a little different,” he recently told reporters. “We definitely miss him. But we’ve figured out ways to score the ball and find the open man, and I think defensively is also where we step it up a notch.”

Durant’s defense, in particular, has shown major signs of improvement this season. The eight-time All-Star is averaging a career-high 2.1 blocks per game, sitting second in the league in blocks and first in blocks per foul. His ability to impact the game at both ends of the court has kept the Warriors on track for their fourth consecutive trip to the NBA finals.

No one will mistake Dallas for championship contenders, but they are competitive again thanks to a mini hot streak that has included gritty wins over San Antonio, Denver, and Oklahoma City. The Mavs are 5-5 in their last ten games and have shown great resilience while dealing with several key injuries of their own.

The Mavs will be shorthanded again tonight as their starting backcourt of Dennis Smith Jr. and Seth Curry watches from the sidelines. Smith has missed the past three games with a left hip strain, and Curry has been unavailable all season after suffering a stress reaction in his left leg in early October. Their absence will put more pressure on leading scorer Harrison Barnes, as well as Dirk Nowitzki, who has yet to score 20 points in a game this season.

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Team Stats

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

Recent Results

WARRIORS: The shorthanded Warriors defeated the Trail Blazers 111-104 on Monday night thanks to another outstanding performance from Durant. KD had 28 points, nine rebounds, and five assists to go along with three blocked shots. Rookie Jordan Bell also had a solid night for Golden State, finishing with 11 points and six rebounds in just his third start of the season.

MAVERICKS: The Mavericks spoiled Kawhi Leonard’s return by upsetting the Spurs 95-89 in Dallas on Tuesday. Barnes led the way with 17 points and a season-high three steals, while J.J. Barea exploded for 14 points in the second half and the Mavs successfully squashed a pair of late rallies. Dallas shot 37.5-percent from deep and turned the ball over just eight times.

Head-to-Head Results

Golden State demolished Dallas 133-103 when the two teams met earlier this season on October 23rd. Durant, Curry, and Klay Thompson combined for 75 points and Golden State never looked back after scoring 40 points in the opening quarter.

Wes Matthews led the way for Dallas with 19 points on 7 of 13 shooting, and Barnes chipped in 13 points against his former team. It was the Mavs’ fourth consecutive defeat and the team clearly struggled to match Golden State’s energy and focus. “We got hit early, and then it always takes us a little bit to engage in the fight,” Dirk Nowitzki said afterwards. “It’s a little too late in every half. They hit us early, and then in the second half we couldn’t really recover any more.”

Notable Injuries and Absences

WARRIORS: Steph Curry, Nick Young, Draymond Green

Curry is expected to miss another two weeks as he recovers from a severely sprained right ankle. Nick Young has been listed as day-to-day after suffering a concussion against the Trail Blazers. Draymond Green is still nursing his sore right shoulder and is doubtful for tonight’s game.

MAVERICKS: Dennis Smith Jr., Seth Curry, Nerlens Noel, Josh McRoberts

Smith will sit out tonight’s game as he nurses a left hip strain. Seth Curry has returned to practice on a limited basis, but the Mavs have yet to announce a timetable for his return. Nerlens Noel underwent surgery last Friday to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb and is likely on the shelf for the remainder of the month. Josh McRoberts recently progressed to 5-on-0 drills. Unfortunately for McRoberts, basketball is typically a 5-on-5 game. Don’t count on him returning anytime soon.

Betting the Moneyline

BEST WARRIORS MONEYLINE: -725

You can get the Warriors at -725

BEST MAVERICKS MONEYLINE: +600

The Mavs are listed at +600

WARRIORS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• Golden State is 9-3 SU at home this season
• Golden State is 9-1 SU in their last ten games
• Golden State is 12-16 SU as a favorite this season
• Golden State is 10-4 SU against the Western Conference
• Golden State is 16-5 SU after a win this season
• Golden State is 4-2 SU on 2-3 days of rest this season

MAVERICKS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• Dallas is 2-10 SU on the road this season
• Dallas is 5-5 SU in their last ten games
• Dallas is 6-17 SU as an underdog this season
• Dallas is 6-13 SU against the Western Conference
• Dallas is 2-5 SU after a win this season
• Dallas is 4-13 SU on one day of rest this season

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: WARRIORS (-725)

The Warriors crushed the Mavs by 30 points when they met earlier this season, and there’s no reason to think they’ll have any difficulty defeating Dallas again tonight. Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston, and Andre Iguodala are all healthy and fully engaged, and Durant appears to be on a mission to prove he’s the best player in the NBA. The four-time scoring champ has long been one of the league’s pettiest players and he appears to be using every possession sans Curry to humiliate opponents and silence his detractors. It’s incredible to see what players can accomplish when they’re truly zoned in, especially players of Durant’s calibre.

Betting Against the Spread

BEST WARRIORS SPREAD: -11.5 (-110)

This spread is available at many online sportsbooks

BEST MAVERICKS SPREAD: +11.5 (-110)

All sites reviewed had the same spread at post time.

WARRIORS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS 

• Golden State is 12-16 ATS this season (42.9-percent)
• Golden State is 4-8 ATS at home this season
• Golden State is on a two-game ATS losing streak

MAVERICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS 

• Dallas is 14-13-1 ATS this season (51.8-percent)
• Dallas is 6-5-1 ATS on the road this season
• Dallas is on a two-game ATS winning streak

EXPERT AGAINST THE SPREAD ADVICE: MAVERICKS (-110)

It’s tempting to take Golden State given the huge discrepancy in talent between these two teams, but -11.5 is a significant point spread. As good as the Warriors have been with Durant at the helm, Golden State has scored significantly fewer points and are playing at a markedly slower pace without Curry.

The Mavs have also done an excellent job of keeping things close by slowing the tempo and limiting their own turnovers. Dallas has lost its last six games by an average of 6.5 points, and will do everything in its power to milk the shot clock and pound the air out of the ball. It won’t be pretty (and it may not be much fun to watch), but they’ll manage to keep this game closer than it has any right to be.

Game Total Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 211.5 (-110)

These odds are available at most online sportsbooks

BEST UNDER ODDS: 211.5 (-110)

Again, all sites reviewed had the same spread at post time.

WARRIORS TOTALS TRENDS

• Golden State is 14-13-1 O/U this season
• Golden State is 5-7 O/U at home this season

MAVERICKS TOTALS TRENDS

• Dallas is 11-16-1 O/U this season
• Dallas is 5-7 O/U on the road this season

EXPERT TOTALS ADVICE: Under 211.5 (-110)

The Warriors and Mavs combined for 236 points in their first meeting, but it’s unlikely they’ll be quite that prolific tonight. Golden State will be without Curry, who dropped 29 points on 7 pf 15 shooting that first time around, and Dallas will be without Smith and Noel, who combined for 18 points. Dallas has also been considerably better defensively as of late, holding San Antonio, Boston, and Minnesota to under 100 points each. The under is the safer bet.

Additional SU Picks

Warriors vs Mavericks is just one of five games on tap on Thursday night. Here are our other seven straight-up picks.