Bucks vs Heat Predictions, Picks & Player Props to Target
- The Bucks vs Heat Game 4 odds favor Milwaukee by 5.5 points on Monday in their opening-round playoff series
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) is questionable after missing Games 2 and 3
- Don’t miss the latest Bucks vs Heat Game 4 picks, plus injury news, betting splits and prop bets to target
Teams that take a 3-1 series lead in the NBA playoffs have gone on to win the series 95% of the time. If the Bucks want to avoid becoming another victim to that stat, they’ll need to take care of business versus the Heat in Game 4.
Milwaukee trails the best-of-seven series 2-1, but online sportsbooks are optimistic about their outlook on Monday in the NBA odds. They opened up the Bucks as the road chalk, in spite of the uncertain status of star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo – more on that later.
Bucks vs Heat Game 4 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | -5.5 (-110) | -215 | O 217.5 (-110) |
| Miami Heat | +5.5 (-110) | +185 | U 217.5 (-110) |
Milwaukee is currently a 5.5-point favorite, in a contest that features a total of 217.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.
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Odds as of April 23 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bucks vs Heat Injury Report
Antetokounmpo has barely played in this series after suffering a lower back injury early in Game 1. He was listed as questionable for both Games 2 and 3, only to be ruled out a few hours before tip-off.
Giannis did some individual on-court work on Sunday, but the team isn’t ready to commit to whether he’s playing or not. Interestingly, Milwaukee has been favored by 5.5 points in both Games 2 and 3 leading up to the announcement of his status, and online sportsbooks are simply sticking with that formula.
Giannis Antetokounmpo did more individual work today before the Bucks film session, per coach Mike Budenholzer
He did not have more info on if Giannis would play Game 4
— Jamal Collier (@JamalCollier) April 23, 2023
Antetokounmpo isn’t the only player dealing with injury issues. Miami’s already down Tyler Herro for the series due to a broken hand, and Game 3 produced more injury trouble. Victor Oladipo tore his patellar tendon and won’t be playing anytime soon.
The Heat’s two best players, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, are also on the injury report. Butler suffered a bruised glute on Saturday and left early after scoring 30 points. Adebayo meanwhile, is dealing with a strained hamstring. Butler is questionable for Game 4 as of Sunday night, while Adebayo is probable.
Bucks vs Heat Betting Splits
Given the amount of Miami injuries, it comes as no surprise that bettors are all over Milwaukee on Monday. The Bucks are currently drawing 62% of the spread tickets, and those bets make up 90% of the ATS handle.
If Antetokounmpo were ruled in those splits would likely go even higher, as would the point spread. Milwaukee is trying to avoid becoming only the sixth number one seed since 1984 that’s failed to advance past the first round in the NBA playoff bracket. The last time a number one seed went down in the opening round
was in 2012, and oddsmakers don’t expect the Bucks to follow suit.
Bucks vs Heat Series Odds
| Team | Odds to Win Series |
|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | -215 |
| Miami Heat | +175 |
Milwaukee is still a -215 favorite to win the series, but those odds will lengthen dramatically should they fall in Game 4.
Bucks vs Heat Predictions
The Bucks have shown major resiliency in past postseasons and we should expect them to show up on Monday with or without Giannis. If Antetokounmpo was a lock to play, Milwaukee would be an auto bet given Miami’s injuries, but even if he sits the Bucks are still the right side.
Milwaukee’s Game 3 performance was an outlier, as they shot 66% from the free throw line and turned the ball over 18 times. That’s not the type of team they are, and bettors should expect those issues to be corrected.
Miami on the other hand, is literally being held together by chewing gum. Their top three scorers are either out or dealing with injuries, and they simply don’t have the depth to overcome their stars not being at 100%. They’re going to be relying on much heavier on players like Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent than they’d like, and I’ll roll with the Bucks supporting cast over those names any day of the week.
Jimmy Butler headed to the locker room after a hard fall
(via @BallySportsFL)pic.twitter.com/pIkQmjecAC
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 23, 2023
As a result of Butler’s injury, we should be looking to fade his point total in the player props market. There’s just too many outs for him coming up short of 29 points. His injury could negatively affect his game, he could be forced to leave early, or a potential Giannis return could limit his ability to get buckets at the rim.
There’s also a scenario where he has an off night or that the Bucks scheme a defensive plan to force the ball out of his hands. Bottom-line, there’s more ways for him to fail than succeed offensively in Game 4.
Picks: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 (-110), Jimmy Butler Under 28.5 Points (-115)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
