Bucks vs Raptors Odds and Picks

• The Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors meet on Thursday, February 18th
• This is the third time the two teams have matched up this season
• Get the latest odds, betting preview and a pick below

For the third time in 2020-21, the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors face-off Thursday night. It’s one win apiece thus far, but the Raptors took the last meeting between the teams a couple of days ago.

Toronto has been resurgent after a poor start, while the Bucks have lost their last four games. Despite their recent losses, the Bucks are favored by 6.5 points for this game.

Milwaukee is without offseason acquisition Jrue Holiday (health and safety protocols). Yuta Watanabe (ankle) is out for the Raps, while Kyle Lowry (ankle) is listed as questionable.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors Odds

Odds taken on Feb 18 from FanDuel

Raptors Find Their Form

Toronto is 6-3 over their last nine. They are fourth in net rating in February. With no shots falling to start the year, the Raps have hit their stride. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have built fringe All-Star cases, Chris Boucher continues to flourish and Norm Powell has once again become a productive supplementary scorer. OG Anunoby’s return from injury has given them a massive boost on the defensive end, too.

The win over Milwaukee a couple of nights ago was on the back of some good shooting (Toronto hit almost 40% of their threes), but it was the smothering defense that made the difference. Giannis Antetokounmpo got his, though was kept to 55% from the field. Khris Middleton, meanwhile, was held to just eight shots in 37 minutes.

The Bucks have increased Middleton’s playmaking responsibility, and looked to run the offense through him in Jrue Holiday’s absence. Effectively nullifying him gave Toronto a path to victory.

Toronto isn’t going to win many shootouts. They, like Milwaukee, rely on fast break scoring (Milwaukee is number one in fast break points per game, Toronto is fifth). Good defense is the foundation for their success.

Bucks Search for Balance

Pat Connaughton drained some shots in the previous game. D.J. Augustin and Bryn Forbes have given Mike Budenholzer some good minutes on offense. Milwaukee sits second in offensive rating on the season, and they are up to 12th on the defensive end after a poor start.

The Defensive Player of the Year defends the bucket!!

⚡️ @we_energies ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/UCgli53oJv

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) February 17, 2021

Milwaukee is among the worst half court defenses in the league, ranking 24th in opponent points per play. Only two teams are giving up a higher percentage of corner threes than the Bucks. This was a formula which worked for them last season, but it has begun to backfire. Teams are shooting almost 40% from deep against them in 2020-21.

Toronto is up to sixth in the league in three-point percentage. It’s reductive to make every game about who shoots the three better, but it’s clearly a major factor here. If the Bucks continue to give up as many good looks from three, the Raps have the shooters to take advantage.

Some of this is Budenholzer’s scheme, some of it is weaker defensive personnel. Augustin, Forbes and Bobby Portis, for a variety of reasons, are weak points on defense. Milwaukee has boosted their offensive potential, but they are easier to score against. It will be interesting to see if Budenholzer adapts his line-ups for Thursday’s game.

Toronto to Cover

The Raptors are 10-8 in games with equal rest. Milwaukee is 7-10 in such circumstances. Playing the same team in consecutive games is a test of coaching as much as it is of the players. These games are an opportunity for Budenholzer to show he can adapt, but his hands are tied to an extent with the players he has available.

Third in the league in three-point percentage this month, Toronto can shoot it well enough to keep themselves in the game. They have the length and athleticism on defense to keep Antetokounmpo and Middleton under relative control.

At the very least, the Raps can stay close. They’re a good bet to cover.

Pick: Toronto Raptors +6.5 (-110)