Game 4 Kings vs Warriors Picks, Odds & Player Props (April 23)
- The Kings vs Warriors odds favor Golden State by 7.5 points in Game 4 of their first-round playoff series
- Draymond Green (suspension) returns to the Warriors lineup after sitting out Game 3
- Check out the latest Kings vs Warriors Game 4 picks, plus betting splits, key trends and prop bets to target
The defending champs got themselves back into their opening round series versus Sacramento on Thursday night, blowing out the Kings 114-97. Golden State still trails the best-of-seven series 2-1, but online sportsbooks are expecting them to even things up in Game 4.
The Warriors opened as the heavy chalk in Sunday’s NBA odds, as they look to defend home court once again. Golden State was 11-1 in their own building during last year’s title run, and are 34-8 so far at home in 2022-23.
Kings vs Warriors Game 4 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | +7.5 (-110) | +270 | O 238.5 (-110) |
| Golden State Warriors | -7.5 (-110) | -325 | U 238.5 (-110) |
Golden State is currently favored by 7.5 points, in a contest with a total of 238.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.
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Odds as of April 22 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sacramento vs Golden State Betting Splits
Oddsmakers might be expecting another convincing win, but big money bettors are shying away from the reigning champs. As of Saturday afternoon, the spread handle is overwhelmingly in favor of the Kings, with Sacramento garnering 76% of the ATS money. That’s coming off just 41% of the tickets, meaning those who bet biggest are riding with the Kings.
Total wise, we’re seeing heavy action on the under, which we agree on – more on that later. 68% of the over/under tickets are backing under 238.5, with those wagers making up 92% of all money bet on the total.
Kings vs Warriors Series Odds
| Team | Odds to Win Series |
|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | +100 |
| Golden State Warriors | -120 |
As for the series props, Golden State is a -120 favorite to advance in the NBA playoff bracket, and you can expect that number to be shortened considerably if they win on Sunday.
Kings vs Warriors Betting Stats
After a 126-123 result in Game 1, Games 2 and 3 have followed a much lower scoring script. Both contests fell under 221 points, with the Kings and Warriors tightening up at the defensive end.
Golden State held Sacramento to 38% from the field in Game 3, and 23.4% from three. It marked just the fourth time all season the Kings have been held under 100 points, with the Warriors being responsible for two of those outcomes.
Golden State posted average defensive numbers over the course of the regular season, but they performed significantly better at home. They averaged just 108.4 points allowed per 100 possessions at Chase Center, which equates to the third best home defensive rating in the league.
One down. Three to go.#GoldBlooded pic.twitter.com/Y2ksEwJb7l
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) April 21, 2023
They were missing both Draymond Green (suspension) and Gary Payton II (illness) in Game 3, but still defended beautifully. Green will return for Game 4, while Payton is questionable. An unsung hero of Thursday’s defensive effort was Kevon Looney. He pulled down 20 rebounds in extended minutes due to Green’s absence, and held Domantas Sabonis to just 15 points.
At the other end of the court, Steph Curry poured in a game-high 36 in Game 3, but Sacramento still defended very well. They held the Warriors to 40% from the field and 32% from three. The Kings were a bottom-seven defensive team during the regular season, but performed much better in their own end on the road. They yielded three fewer points as visitors than at home, which is one of a few reasons we like the under in Game 4.
Kings vs Warriors Predictions
Another reason to go under in Game 4, is the Warriors pace. Golden State typically plays a slower brand of basketball in the playoffs, and that’s come to fruition in this postseason as well. Sacramento was the highest rated offensive team in the league during the regular season, and the best way to keep them in check is to slow the game down and keep them out of rhythm.
Kings from 3 in this series
*12-of-32
*9-of-38
*11-of-46Total: 32-of-116 (27.5 percent)
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) April 21, 2023
The Kings underwhelming three-point shooting is another key to keeping Game 4 under the total. Sacramento is just 32-of-116 (27.5%) from three this series, after shooting 37% on triples during the regular season.
As for the player props market, let’s continue to bank of the Kings’ woeful long range shooting. Kevin Huerter has been among the worst in that department for Sacramento, knocking down just 15% of his triples through three games. Huerter was 1-of-6 from three on Thursday, and hasn’t made more than two threes in any of his last seven games.
Over that stretch he’s knocked down only 10 of his 48 attempts, and we’re getting an excellent price to fade him once again on Sunday in a hostile environment.
Picks: Under 238.5 (-110), Kevin Huerter Under 2.5 Threes (-125)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
