Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic Open as Co-Favorites in 2021 NBA MVP Odds

• Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic are the co-favorites to win 2021 NBA MVP
• Lakers duo LeBron James and Anthony Davis trail close behind, while Steph Curry is +1000 to win his third
• Read for odds and analysis on the 2021 NBA MVP below

The 2021 NBA MVP race is wide open. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry return, Giannis Antetokounmpo is looking to make history and Luka Doncic is aiming to take the next step in his ascension to greatness.

Championship pair LeBron James and Anthony Davis are in the mix, as is Jimmy Butler. James Harden, a perennial MVP candidate, is at +2000, the same price as Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard, and Nikola Jokic.

The opening NBA MVP odds are in the table below, led by two international mega stars.

2021 NBA MVP Odds

Odds taken Oct. 19 at DraftKings

Antetokounmpo’s Pressure

There’s not much doubt that Antetokoumpo can replicate his 2019-20 regular season. Winning MVP, unfortunately, is about more than the best statistical season, and the Greek Freak faces a challenging narrative ahead of 2021 after another post-season disappointment.

Antetokoumpo became only the third player in NBA history to win MVP and Defensive Player of the Year. He is a frontrunner for both awards in 2021, but voter fatigue is a very real thing in the NBA, as has been proved with countless all-time greats.

Where Antetokounmpo has been the shiny new superstar, his reputation has now taken a battering in consecutive playoff disappointments. The player he was in the 2019-20 regular season was all-time great, but voters will want to see something new if they are to crown him MVP for the third time in a row. Only three players in NBA history have threepeated; Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird.

Antetokounmpo has made himself better in each year of his NBA career. Developing his scoring, adding a mid-range game or upgrading that three-point shot are the most obvious improvements he could make. He took 4.7 threes per game last season, by far a career-high, and shot over 30%. Take that up to 34 or 35% and voters will find it hard to overlook him.

There has been a narrative shift, a change in the way Antetokounmpo is viewed. Players are lauded as they grow to superstardom. Once they reach the pinnacle, winning MVPs, they are held to an almost impossibly high standard.

pic.twitter.com/SHlLxYLvUK

— Giannis Antetokounmpo (@Giannis_An34) September 18, 2020

The East will be stronger in 2021. The Bucks are unlikely to be as dominant in the regular year. Antetokounmpo deserves to be the early favorite after going back-to-back, but he’s not a good bet at +600.

Doncic’s Candidacy

Doncic was a legitimate MVP contender for the first half of last season. He was averaging a near triple-double and guided the Dallas Mavericks comfortably into the playoffs. Doing so again will have him in consideration, but the Slovenian phenom needs the Mavericks to reach a higher seed.

It’s very rare that the MVP comes from a team outside the top four seeds in their conference. With the West so fiercely competitive, it’s a big ask for Dallas to make that leap, particularly with Kristaps Porzingis’ dodgy health and an average defense.

Doncic unquestionably has MVP talent. He can do it all, and Rick Carlisle has built a historically good offense around him, spreading the floor with shooters who can take full advantage of Doncic’s elite passing ability. Having averaged 29-9-9 in 2019-20, it’s not infeasible that Doncic averages a triple-double in 2021.

How the Mavericks approach this off-season will influence Doncic’s MVP candidacy. A trade for Victor Oladipo could elevate them into the upper echelon of the West, making it easier for Doncic to mount a serious challenge.

Most PTS scored by a player in his 1st NBA Playoff series:

214- LeBron James, 2006 (6 games)
190- Bob McAdoo, 1974 (6 games)
186- Luka Doncic, 2020 (6 games)
184- Bob Lanier, 1974 (7 games)
181- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1970
(5 games) pic.twitter.com/YFEJjbsz8q

— 🏀 ALL ICONIC SPORTS (@ALLICONICSPORTS) October 19, 2020

As it stands, with Porzingis’ injury concerns and uncertainty over how good Dallas will be, co-favorite is perhaps generous, but betting Doncic to win MVP is still a reasonable option given the situation other contenders find themselves in.

Lakers Star Duo

Two of Doncic’s nearest rivals for MVP will be pulling on the purple and gold of the Lakers fresh off the franchise’s 17^th NBA title. Davis and James were unstoppable in the post-season, and could arguably feel aggrieved to sit third and fourth.

Just as was the case last season, though, the presence of each other makes winning MVP harder. Durant and Curry never got serious MVP consideration when they were on the same team, and Davis’ impact at both ends certainly worked against LeBron in 2019-20.

Davis would need to be spectacular to win MVP while sharing a team with LeBron. There would need to be a shift in momentum, particularly after James easily won Finals MVP. For all the talk of handing over the keys and other such sporting clichés, this is LeBron’s team.

James is by far the best bet of the two. Voters could lean to him after his public complaints about last season’s voting. If he can perform like he did in 2019-20, and lead the Lakers to the top seed again, it will take something historic to stop him from winning another MVP.

Here Come the Warriors

The Warriors took a sabbatical in 2019-20. Klay Thompson was out for the year, Draymond Green cruised through games and Steph Curry only played five times after breaking his hand. D’Angelo Russell was flipped for Andrew Wiggins, and Eric Paschall proved he can be a useful rotation player going forward.

They are back and well-rested for 2021. Curry will be out to prove a point, prove he can still lead a contender without Durant, and once again go head-to-head with LeBron James.

The two-time MVP saw his scoring take a hit in the Durant years, dropping to the mid-twenties. We could see the 30-point-per-game version of Curry in 2021 as he handles the ball more than he has in years with Durant in Brooklyn.

How you view Curry’s MVP odds depends on how you view the Warriors. Just as Doncic needs Dallas to be a contender, Curry needs the same from Golden State if he’s to join Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, and Moses Malone on three MVPs.

There’s justifiable cynicism about the Warriors’ defense, and their core are all into their thirties. With the assets to make significant moves before the season starts, though, this is a team that should be in with the Lakers, Clippers, and Nuggets as the best in the West. Curry will be leading the way, putting up huge numbers, if the Warriors are that good. He represents the best value of the top five.