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Heat vs Nets Odds and Picks

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in NBA Basketball

Updated Jan 23, 2021 · 6:28 AM PST

James Harden in warmups
James Harden and the Nets try to bounce back from consecutive losses to the Cavs as they take on the Miami Heat Saturday night. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
  • The Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat matchup on January 23rd
  • Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden are set to play their second game together
  • Get the latest odds, betting discussion and a pick below

The Brooklyn Nets face the Miami Heat on the second night of a back-to-back on Saturday night (January 23). Kevin Durant sat out Friday’s loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the former MVP is expected to play on Saturday night. Miami is without Jimmy Butler and Avery Bradley through health and safety protocols. Tyler Herro will also sit out with a neck issue.

It’s not certain that Durant will play – he was out with Achilles recovery on Friday. That is clearly a factor in the early odds with the Nets favored by eight points over a Heat team, which is 6-8 on the season and 2-5 on the road.

Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat +8 (-110) +285 N/A
Brooklyn Nets -8 (-110) -355 N/A

Odds taken on Jan 23 from FanDuel.

Short-Handed Heat

Miami has started the season slowly. They have been short-handed for the majority of their games, and are still without their premier ball handler and scorer in Jimmy Butler. Avery Bradley’s absence has left a gaping hole in their perimeter defense. The Heat have turned the ball over at an alarming rate – 18.4 times per game, good for worst in the league.

Sitting 21st in offense and 20th in defense, Miami’s depth has been tested far more than Erik Spoelstra would have liked. Tyler Herro, who is out on Saturday, and Duncan Robinson have been attacked on the defensive end. There is a Jae Crowder-shaped void in this team.

With Goran Dragic missing a few games and still ramping up after injury, and Butler playing six of their 14 so far, the offense has been run through Bam Adebayo even more than was expected.

Adebayo has expanded his offensive game. His mid-range shooting is a real bonus, and could trouble a Nets defense which is vulnerable, but he’s been the main culprit when it comes to turning it over. With no increase in his assist rate, Adebayo is giving it up 3.5 times per game, compared to just 2.8 last season.

The Nets rank 24th in forcing turnovers. Looking after the ball will be key for the Heat if they are to stay in this game.

Nets Looking To Bounce Back

The Nets have played just one game with their big three so far. Kevin Durant and James Harden looked good together in wins over Orlando and Milwaukee. As a trio, they lost an overtime classic on the back of a mammoth performance from Collin Sexton.

Harden and Kyrie Irving were without Durant on Friday. They lost to the Cavs again, giving up 125 points in 48 minutes. The Nets’ defense bordered on non-existent. Durant returning on Saturday will help them against the Heat, but giving up so many points to one of the league’s worst offenses is a concern.

Luckily for Steve Nash, the defense might not matter too much against this version of the Heat. They are without two of their top four scorers and were blown out by Toronto Raptors Friday night. Miami’s off-the-dribble shot creation is very limited in the absence of Butler and Herro (though Kendrick Nunn will be hoping for a big role after scoring 50 over his last two games).

Take The Nets

Even at -8, the Nets are the team to back for this one. Durant’s availability is obviously key, but after resting on Friday night, it’s reasonable to expect him to play. His impact as a scorer is crucial (Brooklyn is going to be in a lot of high-scoring games), though his ability to actually guard opponents is pretty useful for this Nets team, too.

There’s no reason for Miami to panic just yet. We have barely seen them at full strength, but heavy losses to the Pistons and Raptors (with victories over the same two teams in between) shows where they are right now.

It might not be another blowout, but unlike the Cavs, the Heat don’t have the defense to keep them in this game.

Pick: Brooklyn Nets -8 (-110)

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