The Lakers’ Projected Win Total is Fool’s Gold

• Books are projecting the Lakers will win 49 games during the upcoming NBA season
• Will LA’s bizarre offseason acquisitions’ mesh with the team’s young core?
• Will LeBron James continue to stay injury free during his 16th season?

Sportsbooks released their win totals for the 2018-19 NBA season late last week and few teams have generated more buzz than the Lakers, who are projected to win 49 games. That’s a mammoth 14-game improvement from a year ago and 28 more wins than LA averaged from 2013-14 to 2017-18.

Los Angeles Lakers Win Total Odds

There’s no question that LeBron James will have a huge impact on his new team, but we’re skeptical he can elevate the Lakers among the league’s elite. Here are five reasons why you should take the under.

1. The West is Loaded

Much has been made of LeBron’s ability to lead a cast of misfits and mismatched parts to the NBA Finals in 2018, but that was in the watered-down East where a quarter of the teams were actively trying to tank. On many nights, the teams they faced looked more like G League squads than bona fide NBA franchises.

That won’t happen again this season, as LeBron will face Golden State, Houston, San Antonio, Utah, Portland, Minnesota, and New Orleans four times each. That’s twice as many encounters as James had when he played in Cleveland and Miami, and it’s likely to result in half as many wins.

2. LeBron is No Longer a Spring Chicken

LeBron has been able to keep Father Time at bay better than nearly any other modern athlete, but it’s only a matter of time before the wheels fall off. The four-time MVP turns 34 on December 30th and has already logged more minutes than Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ingram, Alex Caruso, Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley, and Ivica Zubac combined.

And that’s just regular season minutes. LeBron has also played close to three full season’s worth of games in the postseason. How long will it be until he suffers his first serious injury or until his super human production begins slipping? It’s worth taking a look at the age 34 seasons of other Hall of Famers to see just how much their numbers dropped.

3. The Lakers Didn’t Address their Biggest Weakness

One of the reasons the Lakers struggled in 2017-18 was their inability to stretch the court. LA ranked 29th in three-point percentage at 34.5% and produced enough bricks to build a high rise. Many expected they would address the issue in the offseason, but instead they signed a group of role players who couldn’t hit the water if they fell out of a boat.

JaVale McGee has taken 15 three-pointers over his ten-year career, Lance Stephenson shot 28.9% from deep last season, Rajon Rondo is a career 30% three-point shooter, and Michael Beasley has never averaged more than 2.2 treys per game.

It’s unlikely all four players will share the court, but their presence makes the Lakers far easier to defend and shuts down driving lanes for the team’s younger stars.

4. There are More Distractions to Deal With

Say what you will about Cleveland, but at least the “Mistake by the Lake” offered LeBron a certain measure of privacy. That won’t happen in Los Angeles, where he’s likely to deal with dozens of media members at every post game conference and will be hounded by paparazzi and TMZ reporters every time he steps outside his house. Everything James says and does will be magnified in ways that simply weren’t possible in Northeast Ohio.

LeBron will likely be able to take the additional scrutiny in stride, but how will his teammates handle it? Will McGee let the attention go to his head? Will Ingram let criticism effect his game? Will Ball and Kuzma release even more god-awful rap singles?

LaVar Ball: #Lakers are Lonzo’s team. #NBA https://t.co/RAelxIdLQr

— Sam Amico (@AmicoHoops) August 12, 2018

And don’t forget about LaVar Ball. The outspoken BBB CEO is certain to wander outside his lane and get under James’ skin at some point this season.

5. The Lakers are Precariously Thin at the Five

No franchise has had more marquee big men than the Lakers, who count George Mikan, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Shaquille O’Neal, and Pau Gasol among their illustrious alumni. So it only made sense that LA would continue that legacy this offseason by signing (drum roll please) JaVale McGee?

Yes, the Shaqtin’ a Fool MVP will man the middle for the Lakers despite the fact that he hasn’t averaged more than 12 minutes per game since the 2013-14 season. McGee is not quite as flaky as he’s been portrayed in the media, but he’s still a wildly inconsistent player who chases blocks on defense and spaces out on offense.

Magic Johnson has suggested that LeBron will get some minutes at center, but how many players have flourished by switching positions this late in their careers?

Magic Johnson has suggested that LeBron will get some minutes at center, but how many players have flourished by switching positions this late in their careers? LeBron will be fine on offense, where he can outmaneuver nearly every center in the league, but how will his body withstand the constant pounding in the paint? After all, it’s one thing to jostle for position against Joe Ingles and Otto Porter Jr., but quite another to go toe-to-toe with Marc Gasol and Joel Embiid.