Lakers vs Nuggets Picks, Odds & Player Props to Target (May 16)
- The Lakers vs Nuggets odds favor Denver by 6 points ahead of Game 1 of the Western Conference Final on Tuesday
- Denver is a perfect 6-0 at home, while LA is 2-4 on the road in the playoffs
- Check out the Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1 predictions, odds, betting splits, and player-prop picks below
For the second time in four years, the Lakers and Nuggets will clash in the Western Conference Final. LA took down Denver in 2020 en route to the NBA title, and just became the second seventh seed in league history to make it this far.
The Nuggets meanwhile, have flown under the radar all season despite being the West’s top seed. They breezed past the T-Wolves in Round 1, and took down a loaded Suns team in six games in Round 2.
Online sportsbooks expect Denver to advance to their first ever Finals and take care of business on Tuesday in Game 1. The Nuggets have been pegged home favorites for the series opener versus LA in the NBA odds, as they look to run their home playoff record to 7-0.
Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Lakers | +7 (-110) | +255 | O 226 (-110) |
| Denver Nuggets | -7 (-110) | -305 | U 226 (-110) |
Denver is currently a 6-point favorite, in a contest with a total of 222.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 pm ET at Ball Arena in Denver, CO, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
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Odds as of May 15 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Lakers vs Nuggets Game 1.
Los Angeles vs Denver Betting Splits
As far as the betting market is concerned, the action favors the hometown Nuggets. Denver opened as 4.5-point favorites for this contest, but have already been bet up a point and a half. Even at the new number, they’re still drawing 62% of the spread wagers and 76% of the ATS handle.
Total wise, the over is garnering the majority of the wagers. That side is being backed by 63% of the tickets, as well as 65% of the handle.
Lakers vs Nuggets Series Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | +135 |
| Denver Nuggets | -160 |
As for the series odds market, the Nuggets are -160 favorites to advance in the NBA playoff bracket. Denver has the second shortest NBA Championship odds at +240, with LA being the third leading contender at +320.
LAL vs DEN Betting Trends
If the Lakers are going to win this series they’ll need to solve their road woes. The team is just 2-4 as visitors this postseason, with four double-digit defeats. Their defensive rating is 16 points worse on the road compared to at home, while they’ve failed to cover four times in their last five tilts as visitors.
NUGGETS. LAKERS.
THE WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS ARE SET 🔥 pic.twitter.com/sDL3CicH6O
— ESPN (@espn) May 13, 2023
A victory in Denver will be quite the feat given how well the Nuggets have played at home. They were an NBA best 34-7 during the regular season, and have won five of their six playoff games there so far by 9+ points.
They blew out Phoenix in all three games at Ball Arena in Round 2, posting an average margin of victory of 14.6 points. Denver leads all postseason teams in overall Net and offensive rating, as well as assist-to-turnover ratio.
Lakers vs Nuggets Betting Analysis
The Lakers will also have to try and slow down Nikola Jokic who’s playing out of his mind. The two-time MVP averaged 34.5 points and a triple-double versus the Suns, becoming just the second player in NBA history with a scoring average that high while also racking up double digit rebounds and assists.
Nikola Jokic has 300 points, 100 rebounds and 100 assists in a postseason for the 3rd time in his career.
No other player has done this in Nuggets postseason history. pic.twitter.com/t1U8dYZlxq
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 12, 2023
Jokic tormented LA during the regular season, averaging 23.3 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists in their four meetings.
The Nuggets defense meanwhile, will have to deal with the Lakers dynamic duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. LeBron led teams are 10-1 all-time in the Conference Finals, last losing as a member of the Cavaliers in 2009.
He and AD are each averaging 20+ points and 10+ boards in the playoffs so far, with AD also racking up 3.3 blocks and 1.5 steals per night.
Lakers vs Nuggets Predictions
It can be dangerous to rely too heavily on trends, especially over a short sample size, but Denver’s dominance at home has been going on all season. They were 2-0 versus the Lakers at Ball Arena, with an average margin of victory of 12 points.
The Nuggets have also started fast in each of their first two series winning by 29 and 18 points respectively in Game 1’s.
Lakers vs Nuggets 2022-23 H2H Results
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 9 | Lakers | Nuggets | DEN, 122-109 |
| Dec. 16 | Nuggets | Lakers | LAL, 126-108 |
| Oct. 30 | Nuggets | Lakers | LAL, 121-110 |
| Oct. 26 | Lakers | Nuggets | DEN, 110-99 |
The Lakers will make this series difficult on Denver, but bettors should fade them in Game 1. LA has looked like a complete different team on the road, and blow out results have followed. As prolific a winner as James is, starting on the road has proved challenging. His teams are just 5-14 in 19 Game 1’s as visitors.
As for the player prop market, consider going under on AD’s assist total of 2.5. Denver won’t double Davis often, which will reduce how many of his touches lead to open looks for his teammates. The Nuggets will trust Jokic to guard AD one-on-one, which will encourage Davis to have a score first mentality.
In three games versus Denver this year, Davis fell under this total twice. He also failed to eclipse it in four of the six games versus Memphis in Round 1, when they had the size to matchup.
Picks: Nuggets -6 (-110), Anthony Davis Under 2.5 Assists (+100)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
