Lakers Open as -371 Favorites to Defeat Heat in 2020 NBA Finals
- With three straight five-game series wins under their belts, the Los Angeles Lakers are heavy favorites to beat the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals
- Miami, like LA, have lost just three games in the playoffs so far after overcoming the Boston Celtics in Game 6
- Where does the value lie ahead of these unique NBA Finals?
It’s the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat in the 2020 NBA Finals. Miami is back in the Finals for the first time since LeBron James departed in 2014. The Lakers represent the Western Conference for the first time in 10 years.
James faces his former team in what is yet another legacy-defining series for him – the Heat are massive underdogs once again, just as they were in their series with the Bucks and Celtics.
This is a series loaded with narrative. It’s Pat Riley with a chance to topple LeBron, it’s the Lakers looking to equal the Celtics for all-time titles, and it’s the Bulls, Sixers and Timberwolves watching on as Jimmy Butler potentially leads a team to a championship.
The Lakers have been in the NBA Championship odds mix all year long. Miami has been an outsider to come out of the East, listed behind the Bucks, Celtics, Raptors and Sixers. The table below has the latest odds to win it all.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat 2020 NBA Finals Series Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | -371 |
| Miami Heat | +290 |
Odds taken from FanDuel on September 28th
Different Heat Team
The Miami Heat lost both of their regular season matchups with the Lakers. Those games were played in November and December with Meyers Leonard and Kendrick Nunn in the starting lineup, Tyler Herro just beginning his NBA career and Goran Dragic coming off the bench.
The Miami which has won three series with only three losses is pretty much unrecognizable – Leonard is a cheerleader in the playoffs, and Nunn has played very limited minutes. Herro has dramatically evolved as a player, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala arrived from Memphis.
Both teams come into this series healthy. Anthony Davis tweaked his ankle in the Conference Finals, but played through it and it didn’t seem to impact him. There’s obviously no Avery Bradley for the Lakers (another major change from their regular season matchups), and Davis will likely play more minutes at the five than he did during in the previous meetings. JaVale McGee, who started 68 games in the regular season, was removed from the starting five against the Nuggets.
.@DwyaneWade deciding whether to root for the Heat or LeBron in the Finals pic.twitter.com/9lVF7zFe5n
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 28, 2020
Miami came into the bubble as a different unit. They had remained locked in during the league’s hiatus, continuing to practise individually and keeping in touch. Bam Adebayo became their starting center and Dragic was inserted into the starting lineup.
Where the bubble has been a challenging environment for others, the Heat have thrived, led by the obsessive drive to win of Butler.
Two Best Players
The Lakers have the two best players in this series, a formula that will always make a team the heavy betting favorites. It’s possible the Heat have the four or five next best players, however. The performances of the Lakers’ veterans are key – they got great minutes from Rajon Rondo and Dwight Howard against Denver, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope found his shooting stroke (shooting 44% from three for the series).
Unreal finish by the Heat: outscored Celtics 35-17 in the final 9 minutes. Showed why they're in the NBA Finals. Everyone played tough, connected defense. Jimmy Butler facilitated. Tyler Herro & Duncan Robinson drained shots. Bam Adebayo did it all. Miami has one hell of a team.
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) September 28, 2020
Danny Green was ice-cold until Game 5 when he hit a couple of big shots. Green is a notoriously streaky shooter, and has previously gotten hot for the Finals. Kyle Kuzma has had a pretty ordinary playoffs, and shot under 30% from three against the Nuggets.
James and Davis are clearly the two best players. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler are comfortably three and four. Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder, Andre Iguodala and even Duncan Robinson are all capable of being the fifth-most important player in this series – Dragic likely has that spot sewn up.
The Lakers will need some of their veterans to outplay Miami’s depth, they will need more Playoff Rondo, and more of the Caldwell-Pope we saw in the Conference Finals.
Deep Shooting
Adebayo is as well-equipped as anyone in the league to guard Davis. He will not be battered on the boards by Howard. The Lakers will not let Adebayo get easy buckets like the Celtics did either. Perimeter scoring will be crucial for both teams.
Miami was the second-best three-point shooting team in the regular season. The Lakers have been subpar in opponent three-point shooting percentage during these playoffs, allowing 36.2% of attempts to drop. Part of that is the opponents they have faced, but it’s also no secret that the Lakers’ perimeter defense is a weakness.
The Heat didn’t shoot the ball well for most of the Conference Finals, hitting just 32.3% attempts from deep. They need Crowder to regain his early playoffs touch and Dragic to improve on his 33.3%.
What to Expect
This could be a physical series. The Lakers depend on interior scoring, and Erik Spoelstra will look to build a wall. They have several long wings to throw at LeBron. Games could be swung on outside shooting from the respective role players as Butler, Adebayo, James and Davis duel in the paint.
LeBron now has more NBA Finals appearances than all but three franchises 🤯 pic.twitter.com/N1C0nqfVcX
— ESPN (@espn) September 27, 2020
Rondo’s performances of late have been consistent enough to have confidence in him to keep it up. He allows the Lakers to, at the very least, tread water when James sits. The Lakers should get enough scoring from Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, Green and Kuzma, though they will all be tested defensively by the non-stop off-ball movement from Miami.
The Lakers are deserving favorites. James and Davis might just be unstoppable, but the Heat will make them work for it. They have the offensive options to take a game or two.
Pick: Lakers to win 4-2 (+310)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
