Mavericks vs Hawks Odds and Picks
- Atlanta hosts Dallas in the NBA season opener for both Thursday at 7:30pm ET on TNT
- Stars Trae Young and Luka Doncic received max contract extensions prior to the season
- Dallas won both games between the two in COVID-shortened 2020-21 — see who we like below
Atlanta plays host to Dallas in the season opener for both at 7:30pm ET Thursday on TNT.
Atlanta opened as a 2.5-point favorite after winning six of the previous 10 head-to-head matchups, including a 7-3 mark ATS.
Dallas will play its first game for coach Jason Kidd, who replaced Rick Carlisle after a 13-year run. Kidd, a 10-time All-Star, was the point guard on the Mavericks’ 2011 NBA championship team, the franchise’s only title. Carlisle was replaced after the Mavs squandered 2-0 and 3-2 series leads in falling to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.
Mavericks vs Hawks Odds and Picks
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | +120 | -+2.5 (-110) | 224.5 (Over-110) |
| Atlanta Hawks | -140 | -2.5 (-110) | 224.5 (Under-110) |
*Odds from DraftKings on Oct. 19
Atlanta enters the season after a scintillating 2021 playoff run in which they upset New York and Philadelphia in the first two rounds before falling to eventual NBA champion Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Hawks were 27-11 after the promotion of Nate McMillan to head coach, and he is back with a new four-year contract. Nine of their top 11 players return, and veteran Delon Wright was added to give quick-twitch Young (33.7 minutes per game, 37.7 in the playoffs) an occasional break.
To the Max
Franchise cornerstones Young and Doncic were two of the four players from the 2018 draft class to receive a max contract this offseason — deals that can be offered to players on rookie contracts entering their fourth season.
Both signed five-year extensions that with escalators that could be worth $207 million. The contracts kick in in 2022-23. Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver forward Michael Porter Jr. were the only other players from 2018 class to get max extensions.
Still a Win-Win Deal
Young and Doncic were exchanged for each other the night of the 2018 draft, when the Mavericks packaged Young (the third pick ) and a protected 2019 first-round pick that became Cam Reddish to the Hawks for Doncic (the fifth pick).
Young averaged 25.3 points and 9.4 assists last season with 28 double-doubles, and Doncic averaged 27.7 points, 8.6 assists and 8.0 rebounds with 26 double-doubles. Doncic had 11 triple-doubles, fourth in the league behind Russell Westbrook, Nikola Jokic and James Harden.
Doncic averaged 35.7 points, 7.9 rebounds and 10.3 assists against the Clippers in the playoffs. He ranked fourth in value over a replacement player behind Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry, according to Basketball Reference.
Young, who ranked 22nd in VORP, averaged 28.8 points and 9.5 assists in three playoff series last season.
Kristaps Porzingis’ Role
Porzingis, the 7-foot-3 forward, was not much of a factor in Dallas’ first-round playoff loss to the Clippers, and questions about his role, his health and his relationship with Doncic remain as he begins his third season with the Mavs. The coaching change had most to do with getting Porzingis right.
Luka Doncic on Kristaps Porzingis: "He's in a way better place now [than last season], especially mentally. I think you can see — everybody can see — that he's playing way better."
— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) October 19, 2021
Porzingis averaged 20.1. points and 8.9 points in 43 regular-season games in 2021, but his numbers dropped to 13.1 and 5.4 when he became more of a decoy in the Clippers’ playoff series.
The Mavs need him to be the sidekick to Doncic that was forecast after Porzingis’ acquisition from New York, after he missed the 2018-19 season because of knee surgery. Sniper Tim Hardaway Jr. has become the most valuable piece of that trade. Porzingis has missed 179 games in six seasons, and there are also two years and a player option left on his $101.5 million contract, which makes a trade very difficult.
By the Numbers
The Mavericks are 4-1 straight up in their last five against the Hawks but are 1-7 straight up in their last eight road eight games in Atlanta. Dallas is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 against the Hawks at any site.
Atlanta is 6-1 straight up in their last seven games as a favorite. Young averaged 23 points and 12.5 assists in the two meetings last season while Doncic averaged 27.5 points, 12 assists and nine rebounds.
The Hawks were playing as well as anyone by the end of 2021, as series-clinching Game 7 victories in New York and Philadelphia could attest. In addition to retaining McMillan and going all-in on Young, management brought back key components John Collins (five years, $125 million) and Kevin Huerter (four years, $65 million). The Hawks are ascending.
The pick: Atlanta -2.5 (-110)
Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
