Nuggets vs Lakers Picks and Odds
- The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers matchup for the first time this season on February 4th
- It’s a rematch of the Western Conference Finals in the Orlando bubble, which the Lakers won 4-1
- Get the latest odds, betting discussion and a pick below
In one of five games on Thursday night, the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets meet for their first clash since the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers are five-point favorites over the Nuggets, who have put together a good run after a slow start to the season.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis were upgraded to probable in the pre-game injury report. Denver is without P.J. Dozier and Gary Harris.
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | +5 (-110) | +176 | Over 219 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Lakers | -5 (-110) | -210 | Under 219 (-110) |
Odds taken on Feb 4th from FanDuel
Jokic vs AD
Nikola Jokic is a frontrunner for MVP. Anthony Davis, by his own admission, has not been playing his best basketball. Defending the paint has been a weakness of the Lakers this season – they rank in the bottom five in paint points allowed, while the efficiency of the Nuggets’ offense is reliant on their paint scoring.
LA will split the Jokic duties between Davis and Marc Gasol. Gasol is still a very good defender, albeit in a very different manner to JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard. Howard agitated Jokic at times in the postseason – could Montrezl Harrell take on a similar role on Thursday?
The Nuggets get a high percentage of corner threes when Jokic is on the floor. They are fifth in three-point percentage, but they face a Lakers defense which has excelled at preventing the long ball. Only two teams allow a lower three-point percentage than the Lakers.
How well Davis and Gasol can guard Jokic inside will impact the Nuggets’ perimeter shooting – few teams have the personnel to cope with Jokic one-on-one on the block, but the Lakers have a couple of players who should be able to live with the The Joker.
Nuggets Have No Answer for LeBron
Jerami Grant took the LeBron James assignment in the playoffs. His success was mixed, but Grant at least has the physical attributes to try and stay in front of the four-time MVP. JaMychal Green is effectively Grant’s replacement on the roster, and while he’s shot the ball well and is a solid defender, he’s not going to be able to guard LeBron for an entire game.
Gary Harris’ absence takes away another option to put on James. Harris is too small to live with James, but he’s the best defender on Denver’s roster. Michael Porter Jr will have no answer for LeBron, Paul Millsap no longer has the quickness to compete in such a matchup.
Denver’s defense ranks in the bottom 10 in the NBA. They are 26th in the NBA in percentage of attempts from the corner. They rank well at stopping opponents getting to the rim, but they are dead last in the league when opponents do get to the restricted area – opponents are shooting over 70% at the rim, per Cleaning The Glass.
If the Nuggets cannot stop James driving to the hoop, the evidence so far this season suggests he will either score or hit an open shooter in the corner. The Lakers currently rank sixth in the league in three-point percentage, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been one of the most deadly shooters in the league – the Lakers wing will be the recipient of many of those LeBron passes to the corner.
Lakers Rightly Favored
The Lakers are 10-11 ATS as favorites. The Nuggets are 2-4 as underdogs. Past betting performance doesn’t give us much of an indication either way here – the two teams have vastly contrasting records for their points totals, too.
While there has been significant roster turnover for both teams, the Conference Finals are a good indicator. The Lakers are comfortably the better team at this stage, and both teams have the luxury of a couple days of rest before this matchup. Fatigue shouldn’t be too much of a factor.
Jamal Murray has not been the same player he was in the bubble – the former seventh overall pick has only scored more than 20 in six games this season. Barring a massive night from Porter, Denver’s offense does not have enough to make up for how their defense will struggle.
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -5 (-110)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
