Nuggets vs Suns Predictions, Odds & Same-Game Parlay (May 11)

• Phoenix is laying 3.5 points in the Nuggets vs Suns odds ahead of Game 6 of their second-round playoff series on Thursday
• The Nuggets lead the best-of-seven series 3-2, and are a -400 favorite to advance to the West Final
• See the Nuggets vs Suns Game 6 predictions, odds, betting splits, and same-game parlay picks here

The Suns’ season is on the line Thursday as they host the Nuggets in Game 6 of their second round playoff series. The home team has won each of the first five games of this best-of-seven set, and online sportsbooks are expecting that trend to continue in the Desert.

Phoenix has been pegged as the home chalk for this elimination game in the NBA odds, as they look to force a seventh and deciding game back in Denver on Sunday

Nuggets vs Suns Game 6 Odds

The Suns are currently 3.5 point favorites, in a contest with a total of 226. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 pm ET at the Footprint Center, in Phoenix, AZ, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

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Odds as of May 10 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Game 6.  

DEN vs PHX Injury Report

The big news ahead of Game 6 is devastating for the Suns and their prospects in the NBA Championship odds. Future Hall-of-Fame point guard Chris Paul will miss his fourth straight game due a groin injury. Phoenix was hopeful Paul would be able to go after progressively doing more in practice over the last few days, but ultimately his injury is still too bothersome.

Suns Game 6 injury report:

Deandre Ayton (rib contusion) is questionable

Chris Paul (left groin strain) is out

— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) May 11, 2023

Also showing up on the injury report is star center Deandre Ayton with bruised ribs. Ayton is expected to suit up, but the Suns are going to need more from him on defense. He’s been the primary defender on Nikola Jokic so far, and the two-time MVP has put up an absurd series stat line of 175 points, 69 rebounds and 50 assists.

Denver vs Phoenix Betting Splits

Bettors certainly believe Phoenix’s injury situation puts them behind the eight-ball. Denver is drawing 56% of the spread wagers ahead of Game 6 and 74% of the handle.

Total wise, under 226 is the popular play among big money bettors. That side is garnering 63% of the over/under handle, and that money is coming from just 37% of the wagers. The over is 3-2 in this series, however Game 5 came in 7.5 points under the total.

Nuggets vs Suns Series Odds

As for the series odds market, the Nuggets are massive favorites to advance in the NBA playoff bracket. Denver is -400 to make the West Final, with the hobbled Suns coming back at +310 underdogs.

Nuggets vs Suns NBA Betting Trends

After dropping both Games 3 and 4 in Phoenix, Denver had a clear plan for how they wanted to approach Game 5. That included slowing down Devin Booker, getting more production from Michael Porter Jr. and the bench, and making open 3’s.

The Nuggets checked all those boxes and more, crushing the Suns 118-112. They held Booker to 28 points, his third lowest total of the postseason. Denver got 19 points, including five three’s from Porter Jr., and another 34 points from their reserves. They shot 49% from the field and 48% from three, blowing the game open in the third quarter.

Nikola Jokic is the 4th player in NBA history to record multiple triple-doubles with 60% shooting in a single postseason, joining Wilt Chamberlain, LeBron James and Magic Johnson. pic.twitter.com/HW9tOn6Mtb

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 10, 2023

Denver also got the 10th postseason triple-double of Jokic’s career, moving him past Wilt Chamberlain for most all-time by a center. Jokic has a pair of triple-doubles already this series, and four so far in 10 playoff games this year.

As for the Suns, Booker and Kevin Durant combined for 54 points, more than half of the team’s total. They shot just 43% from the field and 33% from three, losing the assist and rebounding battle along the way.

The Nuggets improved to 6-0 in the postseason at home, winning for the third time this series by double-digits. Only one of their six home victories came by less than 9 points, but they’ll need to win for only the second time on the road this postseason if they want to close out Phoenix in Game 6.

Nuggets vs Suns Predictions

While each of the Nuggets home wins have been blowouts this series, the same cannot be said for the Suns. Phoenix posted seven and five point victories in Games 3 and 4 respectively, needing Herculean performances from Booker in order to do so.

Booker is capable of replicating that effort on Thursday, but we shouldn’t count on it. The Suns are at a severe disadvantage without Paul running the show, as they lose a tenacious defender and one of the best playmakers of all-time. Ayton’s injury only further handicaps Phoenix, and even if he’s able to play he’ll need major help versus Jokic.

There’s no better passing big man in the league, and Denver has not struggled to make open looks on the road this series. They shot 50% combined in Games 3 and 4 as visitors, while Porter Jr.’s resurgence in Game 5 spells disaster for the Suns. If Denver can get quality scoring from not only Jokic, but also Jamaal Murray and Porter Jr, they’re going to be tough to beat.

Nuggets vs Suns Same-Game Parlay Picks

We’ll back the Nuggets plus the points in the spread market, as well as on our Same-Game Parlay. Our SGP pairs Denver +3.5 with under 9.5 points for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, for a potential +237 payout.

The Nuggets shooting guard has failed to clear 9.5 points four times this postseason, including twice in his last three outings. He’s averaging just six shots per game, and as a 42% career shooter, that’s simply not enough volume to justify his prop number.

Picks:

• Nuggets +3.5 (-110)
• Same-Game Parlay (+237)