Odds Against Any Player Averaging More Than 33.5 PPG in 2019-20 Season
- Sportsbooks have set the odds against any NBA player averaging more than 33.5 PPG this season
- Last season James Harden averaged 36 PPG – the highest since Michael Jordan averaged 37 PPG in the 1986-86 season
- Can Harden repeat the feat with Russell Westbrook now his teammate?
The 2019-20 NBA season is just weeks away from getting underway, which means now is a great time to get involved in some season-long props.
One those is a scoring prop questioning whether a player will average at least 33.5 points per game. James Harden did it last year.
Can he – or anyone else – do it this year?
Odds an NBA Player Averages 33.5 PPG or More This Season
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +250 |
| No | -350 |
*Odds as of 10/02/19.
Harden Averaged 36.1 PPG Last Season
Harden had an epic campaign with the Houston Rockets last season, as he averaged a league-best 36.1 points per game. He had an incredible run of 32 games in which he scored at least 30 points, including a 61-point game.
The challenge for Harden in the 2019-20 season is he figures to have a lot more help at the offensive end.
With Russell Westbrook in the fold, the team has essentially added another player who can go for 30 points any night. He averaged 22.9 last season. That’s going to take a big bite out of Harden’s contributions.
Harden Only One to Top 33.5 PPG In Last 13 Seasons
One key to remember with this prop is the historical context. Only one player has finished a regular season above 33.5 points per game in the last 13 seasons and that was Harden last year. Typically, the NBA’s leading scorer is right around the 28-30 point range.
For context, Harden led the league with 30.4 PPG in 2017-18, Westbrook led the league with 31.6 PPG in 2016-17 and Steph Curry led the league with 30.1 PPG in 2015-16.
The League Has Never Been More Offensively Oriented
Another important factor to consider here for context is that scoring is up in the NBA. For some perspective, only five teams averaged more than 110.0 points per game in the 2017-18 season. In the 2016-17 season, only four teams managed that feat.
However, last season, 18 teams hit that mark.
Remember, the league made some changes over the last couple of seasons to speed up the pace of the game. At the same time, teams have really valued three-point shooting and started to build their teams with perimeter sharpshooters. Those factors are contributing to higher numbers.
NBA PPG Leaders Over Last Five Seasons
| Year | Player | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | James Harden | 36.1 |
| 2017 | James Harden | 30.4 |
| 2016 | Russell Westbrook | 31.6 |
| 2015 | Stephen Curry | 30.1 |
| 2014 | Russell Westbrook | 28.2 |
What’s The Best Bet?
Historically, 33.5 points per game is a really big number, so I’m not going to bet over that number. Harden played out of his mind last year and scored at a pace that we haven’t really seen all too frequently in the last decade. With Westbrook on his team, I’m not expecting him to duplicate it.
With many of the league’s big stars joining together on teams like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the Los Angeles Clippers, and LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the Los Angeles Lakers, I don’t see anyone in a great spot.
The Rockets also play a wide-open style of offense under head coach Mike D’Antoni that few other teams match. Maybe someone like Steph Curry from Golden State could have a big year as they played at a similar pace last year but he also has stars around him. That being the case, I’ll take the under here.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
