Pelicans vs Trail Blazers Picks and Odds

• The New Orleans Pelicans and Portland Trail Blazers matchup on March 18th
• Portland won a dramatic game two days ago thanks to typical Damian Lillard heroics
• Will the Pels bounce back on Thursday? See odds and analysis on the game below

The spread favors the Blazers by just one point for Thursday’s game. Having battled back to win on Tuesday, Portland is looking to complete a season sweep over Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. The loss saw the Pels fall to 2-4 over their last six.

Portland welcomed back CJ McCollum for Tuesday’s game. Although his minutes will be managed carefully, McCollum is expected to make it two games in three days. The Blazers are still without Jusuf Nurkic (wrist), Harry Giles (calf) and Zach Collins (ankle). JJ Redick (heel) is listed as out for New Orleans.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers Odds

Odds taken on Mar 18th

Pels Collapse In Fourth

Attention was naturally on Damian Lillard. The All-NBA guard starred again in the clutch. New Orleans crumbled, though, allowing Dame Time to take over. This wasn’t the first time the Pelicans have struggled to retain a lead either. They have failed to win 10 games in which they have held a 10-point lead. Stan Van Gundy’s frustration with his team must be at an all-time high, and with good reason.

Good. God. Pels.

— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) March 17, 2021

The Pelicans stagnated on offense down the stretch. Five fourth quarter turnovers and eight fouls created what was a nightmare ending to a game they should have won. They aren’t the first team to get shown up by Lillard in the fourth quarter, but that is little consolation for Van Gundy. New Orleans has a good record of bouncing back from heavy losses, including consecutive wins after a recent blowout to the Timberwolves. This wasn’t a big defeat by points margin, but it was as gut-wrenching as they come.

The Pelicans: *up 17 with 5:56 to go*

Dame Lillard: pic.twitter.com/kUzZ9w9Lak

— RingerNBA (@ringernba) March 17, 2021

Shooting 48.5% from three as a team and getting an efficient 28 from Zion Williamson should result in a W. The Pels are finding ways to lose at the moment, and Thursday’s game against the same opponents who just stole a win off them is a test mentally as much as it is physically.

Portland Gets It Done

These teams have a similar profile. Both are top-tier on offense and among the worst in the league on defense. The Pelicans actually have a marginally better net rating than Portland. It is reductive to say Lillard is the difference between the two teams, and while there’s some truth in that, it’s a team-wide contrast.

Portland not only has the best clutch player in the league. The players around Lillard are reliable as the pressure rises. Their defense might be a liability, but they have a knack for big late-game plays. Throughout the game, they get the little things right. Portland ranks second in turnovers, second in free throw percentage and hits over 38% of their threes.

The Blazers were down by 17 points with 6 minutes left. They went on a 25-7 run to win the game.

Damian Lillard scored or assisted 18 of those points. He finished with:

50 PTS
10 AST
13-20 FG
6-13 3P
18-18 FT pic.twitter.com/npELwpXxgF

— StatMuse (@statmuse) March 17, 2021

The Blazers might not be able to stop Williamson. Sitting in the bottom ten in opponent three-point percentage, they could get blown away by Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Eric Bledsoe draining shots. If it becomes a battle of offense once again, though, it’s hard to bet against Lillard and the returning McCollum.

Blazers Take It

Anything is possible with the Pelicans. They have been blown out by the Timberwolves and crushed the Clippers over the last few days. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they won or lost this by 30. Just like Tuesday, however, a close game seems probable. These are two relatively well-matched teams despite the chasm between them in the standings.

"I know what it's like to be unknown and to not have the lights on you and to want to be seen …"

This was incredible from @Dame_Lillard 👏 pic.twitter.com/AXNEZt4A9m

— ESPN (@espn) March 17, 2021

It would be foolish to go against Portland in a close game. Their 16-6 clutch record is third-best in the association. In contrast, the Pels own a -8.4 net rating in clutch minutes and the fourth-worst assist to turnover ratio.

There’s possible value in an alternate spread favoring Portland, but the moneyline is our pick.

• Pick: Portland Trail Blazers moneyline (-120)