Updated 2021 NBA Championship Odds After All-Star Break – Top Six Pulling Away

• The NBA Championship odds have changed significantly across the first half of the season
• Led by the Lakers and Nets, the top six have pulled away from the field
• Which teams represent value ahead of the season’s restart? See updated odds below

On first glance, the NBA Championship odds look much the same. The Los Angeles Lakers are top of the pile. The Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers are in the top four.

Since opening night, though, the odds to win the NBA title have altered significantly. Trading for James Harden elevated the Brooklyn Nets, the Utah Jazz have surged to own the best record in the Western Conference, and the Philadelphia 76ers have proved a much more impressive force than last season.

A chasm has opened between those six and the rest. Tied for seventh in the latest odds, the Nuggets and Celtics are way out at +3000. Boston had an average price of +1850 on December 23rd, and the Nuggets were +1800.

2021 NBA Championship Odds

Odds taken on March 9 from FanDuel

All Eyes on Brooklyn

Kevin Durant has played in one game since February 5th. Brooklyn has lost three times over that span. James Harden is playing like an MVP, Kyrie Irving has embraced his role as an off-ball scorer, and the Nets have struck a winning formula with small lineups. It remains to be seen how impactful Blake Griffin is, but his signing could be the first of several on the buyout market.

Brooklyn has closed the gap on the Lakers with Anthony Davis sidelined. Their defense has taken steps forward. In early December, the Nets had an average price of around +600. They are hovering right around the Lakers for favorite status at the moment, and it’s easy to see why. This team is conquering all before them even without their best player.

Size and defense is still an area of concern. Halting Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo across a seven-game series is the greatest question of Brooklyn, but recent performances warrant their odds movement.

Jazz Break Through

Utah was no more than an outsider before the season. Owning the league’s best record, they have cracked the inner-circle of title contenders, sitting at a shorter price than the Philadelphia 76ers and just behind the Milwaukee Bucks. The Jazz are the only team in the top five in offense and defense. While their odds have shortened significantly over the course of the season, there is still natural skepticism of them as title challengers.

Lakers' LeBron James on Jazz as last two all-star picks: "There’s no slander to the Utah Jazz. You’ve got to understand, just like in video games growing up, we never played with Utah. As great as Karl Malone and John Stockton was, we would never pick those guys in video games."

— Ben Golliver (@BenGolliver) March 5, 2021

The egalitarian offense, which is so good to watch, does not fill people with confidence. They wouldn’t have the best player in a postseason series against the majority of Western Conference contenders, and wouldn’t be close to doing so against the Clippers or Lakers. As good as Donovan Mitchell was in the first round last season, Utah doesn’t have a go-to scorer like Kawhi Leonard or LeBron James.

Some would even question their defense, particularly after Rudy Gobert has struggled against Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid.

https://twitter.com/DidTheSixersWin/status/1367305356519555074

Utah has been brilliant, but three losses in four before the break brought them back down to Earth. They would still be underdogs in a series with the Lakers or Clippers, though they are the biggest movers in NBA Championship odds, having come in to +850 from an average of +3550 on December 23rd.

Don’t Sleep on the Heat

Off the back of a Finals run, the Miami Heat are bound to attract a few wagers at +4600. Miami’s record might be unspectacular, but they have been playing much better since getting Jimmy Butler healthy, and they could make a notable trade before the deadline with Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk’s expiring salaries.

After winning their sixth straight game, the Miami Heat are starting to resemble the team that went to the NBA Finals last season. They are currently tied for 5th in the East led by Jimmy Butler averaging 20 PPG, 8 RPG, and 8 APG.

— Earvin Magic Johnson (@MagicJohnson) March 1, 2021

Miami is sixth in net rating over the last 15 games. Despite COVID-19 absences and injuries disrupting the early weeks of their season, the Heat are up to sixth in the Eastern Conference and within striking distance of home court advantage in the first round.

A defense which was not doing much early on has, unsurprisingly, become one of the best in the league with Butler and Bam Adebayo in tandem.

A trade for Victor Oladipo will be rumored everywhere before the deadline. Whether it’s Oladipo or a three-point shooting forward like Harrison Barnes, the Heat’s price could shorten quickly over the coming weeks. This might be the best time to back them as a longshot for the title.

Where’s the Value?

Betting the Lakers to win it all is a strange concept right now. The Lakers are far from title favorites if Davis is out. All reports suggest he will return soon, but backing them while Davis is sidelined feels like a major risk. At the same time, though, this might be the best price on the Lakers all year long.

Having performed so well of late, this isn’t the time to back the Nets. Their price could increase with a few losses.

A lack of faith in the Milwaukee Bucks makes them an interesting proposition, however, with Jrue Holiday still working his way back after COVID-19. Milwaukee has gone under the radar this year, but they won six of seven before the break.

Over in the West, the Suns stand out at +3200. Phoenix owns the second-best record in the Western Conference and sits top eight on both ends of the floor. The Suns will be a tough out whoever they face in the postseason and could yet end up with a favorable route to the Conference Finals if they continue to rack up regular season wins.