Updated 2021 NBA Championship Odds – Should You Bet the Suns or Bucks With Series Tied 2-2

• The Milwaukee Bucks won Game 4 of the NBA Finals to tie the series at 2-2
• Game 5 takes place back in Phoenix on Saturday, where the Suns are 8-2 in this postseason
• Read below for the latest NBA Championship odds and betting analysis

The Suns were in the box seat when the series headed to Milwaukee for Game 3. As they did against the Nets, however, the Bucks fought back on their homecourt. The result is another major swing in the NBA Championship odds. This has been a captivating NBA Finals to date, and Saturday’s Game 5 in Arizona is one of the biggest games in the history of each franchise.

A loss for Phoenix will leave them with the unenviable task of winning at Fiserv Forum. A loss for Milwaukee will mean the best they can do is force a Game 7. This is a series which has become a brilliant one for the neutral, and it’s fascinating for bettors as a result.

The Bucks staged a comeback in the fourth quarter of Game 4 to even the series ahead of Game 5. Chris Paul struggled, fouls impacted Monty Williams’ rotations, and the Bucks got a massive night from Khris Middleton. Giannis Antetokounmpo produced one of the great defensive plays in NBA Finals history.

Homecourt advantage makes the Suns narrow favorites in the latest odds from DraftKings.

2021 NBA Championship Odds

Odds as of July 15th

Homecourt Still Holds

No road team has won in this series yet. If that holds, the Phoenix Suns will be NBA champions for the first time in their history. Owning an 8-2 record on their home floor in this postseason, Phoenix will be confident as they return to Arizona, but the Bucks are no strangers to impressive road wins. Twice under enormous pressure, they won in Atlanta in the Conference Finals, including the series clincher.

The Bucks have dug deep in this postseason. This is a team that has faced crises and bounced back. They also fly across the country with back-to-back wins behind them, and having lost by just one point in Phoenix in the regular season. That was even without Jrue Holiday and before the P.J. Tucker trade.

The importance of homecourt is clear. With raucous crowds at both arenas, it is clearly making a difference to the players. Some may even argue it is swaying the officials sufficiently, too.

The Giannis Problem

Even though it wasn’t a third straight 40-point game for the Greek Freak, the Suns clearly had no answer for him. Antetokounmpo had what was a normal night by his MVP standards in Game 4. He still finished with 26 points on 19 shots, 14 rebounds, eight assists, three steals and two blocks. One of those blocks was the decisive moment in the game.

https://twitter.com/andre/status/1415514275645296641

The Bucks dominated the transition game, outscoring Phoenix by 15-0 in Game 4. Antetokounmpo’s aggressiveness once again saw the Suns rack up fouls, with Jae Crowder finishing the game with five. Phoenix experimented with defensive coverages, and made a point of trying to build a wall, but the result was Giannis finding open shooters throughout the game.

Where he settled for jumpers earlier in the playoffs, the two-time MVP has remained aggressive in the Finals. It has paid dividends. His eight dimes could have been so much more if his teammates knocked down a few more open shots (Milwaukee shot under 25% from three as a team).

GIANNIS CAME UP CLUTCH 😤

A HUGE block when it mattered pic.twitter.com/ZbyMCj8L1s

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) July 15, 2021

Holding Giannis to his Game 4 line – as outrageous as it is – might be the best Phoenix can do. Keeping him to scoring in the twenties rather than the forties at least puts pressure on Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and other Bucks.

Bucks Road Woes

Just like Phoenix, the Bucks have been immense at home in these playoffs. On the road, however, their performances have been much less consistent. Middleton is averaging 22.4 points away from Fiserv Forum, compared to 25 at home. Holiday is a similar story, dropping to 15.5 on the road from 18.9 at home. Bobby Portis has shot over 41% from three at home and well below 30% on the road.

Khris Middleton this playoffs
Home: 25 PPG, 47 FG%, 38 3P%
Road: 22 PPG, 40 FG%, 32 3P%

Khris Middleton this Finals
Home: 29 PPG, 45 FG%, 40 3P%
Road: 20 PPG, 41 FG%, 33 3P% pic.twitter.com/bXfxyY2pZq

— StatMuse (@statmuse) July 15, 2021

This reflects in team performance. They have a 13.3 net rating at home. That figure is down at -2.1 on the road. Their numbers are worse across the board, and they even play slower on the road.

Milwaukee was the best transition team in the NBA in the regular season. Antetokounmpo is an unstoppable force in fast break situations. Getting out and running was a big part of their success in Game 4, and it’s crucial they can repeat that in Game 5.

https://twitter.com/JJMaples55_MST/status/1415507659126575107

The Bucks have to win a road game if they are to win their first title in half a century. Middleton has had a couple of big games on the road already in this postseason – with the Bucks so dependent on him for scoring to supplement Giannis, they need at least one more efficient night on the road from their All-Star wing.

Leaning to Bucks

It’s easy to get swept up in recency bias in a series like this. These are two evenly matched teams, and the fact the Bucks won the last two doesn’t change that.

There were signs in Game 4, though, that the Bucks are the best bet at +125. Despite the significance of Phoenix’s homecourt advantage, Paul’s struggles on Wednesday and their difficulty dealing with Giannis makes this a more level series than the odds suggest.

Should homecourt hold through the next two games, it’ll be Game 7 in Arizona. That seems like a reasonable prediction at this stage, and if it gets to that point, it’ll be a coin flip given how close these teams are. The -120 on this to go seven is a great bet, and so are the Bucks at +125.